Week 4 Playoff Projections

I am writing this a week earlier than I intended, because me being behind in technology, I just learned that I can create spreadsheets online.  I wanted to practice using Google spreadsheets and see the difference between that and Microsoft.

There are a few differences between this year and last year.

1) The main group has 6 divisions. The secondary group has 1.  In addition, the secondary group is leaning towards going back to the old system.  The top 3 teams in each league goes.  There are no at-large berths in the secondary group.

2) The number of at-large teams in the main group increases from 24 to 28. 

3) The defending champions have to play in the division they won or higher, regardless of enrollment.  For example, Folsom could have a low-enough enrollment to play in division II, but since it won the Division I championship, it will be in division I this year. 

4) The section has more authority to move teams as it sees fit.  In my model, I will not worry about that.  I will stick to the math for the most part.  There will be two exceptions, 1) I will move teams to avoid two teams in the same league of playing each other in the 1st round (and it still can't be helped in division VII).  2) I will give undefeated teams a priority regardless of the tiebreaker. 

(Pitman is a weird case.  The Pride have fewer games than everyone else.  Pitman is 3-0.  I will not put them over 4 or 5 win teams, but I will put them over 3-1 and 3-2 teams).

In this model, the automatics will go to the best overall records for those leagues that have not played a league game, yet. Also, because only a few leagues just started, I will not enforce the two league win requirement this week.

Here is the model if the regular season ended today (209) teams in bold:

Division I (16 teams) Defending Champion: Folsom Bulldogs
(16) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 1-3 @ (1) Folsom (SFL) 5-0
(9) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (8) Tracy (TCAL) 3-2
(12) Nevada Union (Grass Valley) (SFL) 3-2 @ (5) Tokay (Lodi) (SJAA) 4-1
(13) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 3-1 @ (4) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills) (SFL) 4-1
(11) Lodi (TCAL) 3-1 @ (6) Woodcreek (Roseville) (SFL) 4-1
(14) Chavez (Stockton) (SJAA) 2-2 @ (3) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 4-0
(10) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DVL) 3-1 @ (7) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 3-0
(15) Turlock (CCC) 2-3 @ (2) Modesto (MMC) 5-0

Division II (16 teams) Defending Champion: Del Oro Golden Eagles
(16) Burbank (Sacramento) (ML) 1-3 @ (1) West (Tracy) (TCAL) 4-0
(9) River Valley (Yuba City) (TCC) 3-2 @ (8) Del Campo (Fair Oaks) (CVC) 3-1
(12) Antelope (CVC) 3-1 @ (5) Vintage (Napa) (MEL) 4-1
(13) Buhach Colony (CCC) 3-1 @ (4) Rocklin (SFL) 4-0
(11) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 3-2 @ (6) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 3-1 @ (3) Elk Grove (DVL) 4-0
(10) Vacaville (MEL) 3-1 @ (7) Davis (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(15) Del Oro (Loomis) (SFL) 2-3 @ (2) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 4-0

Division III (16 teams) Defending Champions: Manteca Buffaloes
(16) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CAL) 2-3 @ (1) Cordova (Rancho Cordova) (SVC) 5-0
(9) Vanden (Fairfield) (SCAC) 3-1 @ (8) Sacramento (ML) 3-1
(12) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2 @ (5) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 4-1
(13) Manteca (VOL) 3-1 @ (4) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 4-0
(11) American Canyon (SCAC) 3-2 @ (6) Christian Brothers (Sacramento) (CAL) 4-1
(14) Patterson (WAC) 3-1 @ (3) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 4-0
(10) Pacheco (Los Banos (WAC) 3-2 @ (7) Rio Linda (TCC) 4-1
(15) Placer (Auburn) (PVL) 3-2 @ (2) Oakdale (VOL) 4-0

Division IV (8 teams) Defending Champions: Central Catholic Raiders (Modesto)
(8) Notomas (Sacramento) (GEL) 3-1 @ (1) Sonora (MLL) 4-1
(5) Central Catholic (Modesto) (VOL) 3-1 @ (4) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-1
(6) Galt (SVC) 3-2 @ (3) Los Banos (WAC) 3-2
(7) Union Mine (El Dorado) (SVC) 3-1 @ (2) Livingston (WAC) 4-1

Division V (8 teams) Defending Champions: Le Grand Bulldogs
(8) Orestimba (Newman) (SL) 3-1 @ (1) Hughson (TVL) 4-1
(5) Delhi (SL) 3-1 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 3-1
(6) Summerville (Tuolumne City) (MLL) 3-2 @ (3) Bear River (Grass Valley) 3-1
(7) Escalon (TVL) 3-2 @ (2) Marysville (GEL) 4-1

Division VI (8 teams) Defending Champions: Brookside Christian Knights (Stockton)
(8) Hilmar (TVL) 2-3 @ (1) Capital Christian (Sacramento) (GEL) 5-0
(5) Modesto Christian (TVL) 3-1 @ (4) Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) (SDL) 4-1
(6) Vacaville Christian (SDL) 3-1 @ (3) Ripon Christian (SL) 4-0
(7) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 2-3 @ (2) Rio Vista (SDL) 4-0

Last 4 in: Gregori (Div. I), Hilmar (Div. VI), Turlock (Div. I), Casa Roble (Div. III)
First 4 out: Granite Bay (SFL), Benicia (SCAC), Napa (MEL), Vista del Lago (Folsom) (CAL)

Division VII (6 teams) Defending Champions: There was no division VII last year
(5) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 1-3 @ (4) Delta (Clarksburg) (SMAL) 1-3
winner would play (1) Stone Ridge Christian (Merced) (CCAA) 3-1
(6) Valley Christian (Roseville) (SMAL) 1-3 @ (3) Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage (San Andreas) (CCAA) 3-1
winner would play (2) Jim Elliot Christian (Lodi) (CCAA) 3-1