My realignment predictions

Every four years, the Sac-Joaquin Section realigns its teams based on enrollments, competitive equity, and geography. I started thinking on what the realignment in the 209 might look like. The first meeting to determine it will be in December. I wanted to complete this project before I saw the opinions of the Modesto Bee and other newspapers, but I was not able to complete it. In one way, that was good, because they convinced me of one change that might happen. The first thing the section will probably do is to decide if they want to expand or contract any leagues. In the last realignment the Delta River and Delta Valley Leagues in the Sacramento area contracted into one league. I don't think there will be any move like that this time around, but one sports writer disagrees with me. We will see. For this blog, I will make realignment predictions for most of the leagues, except for the Mountain Valley League, because I do not think there will be any changes to that league. For each league, I will give the current alignment, my predicted future alignment, and a possible “curve ball”. After seeing what the section proposed last year, the committee made some suggestions that did not make sense to a lot of people (Lathrop and Weston Ranch in the WAC?) Note: For the “curve balls”, I am not giving consideration on how it might affect other leagues. Current Division I Leagues Central California Conference (CCC) Current: Atwater, Buhach Colony, El Capitan, Golden Valley, Merced, Pitman, Turlock My prediction: Atwater, Buhach Colony, El Capitan, Golden Valley, Merced, Patterson Possible curve ball: League stays the same as it is now. Notes: I originally had the league staying the same until I read what The Modesto Bee had to say on the subject, and what they said about Pitman and Turlock leaving (I’ll get to that later) makes more sense than what I had. Due to that, I needed to put a sixth team in the league, because it is unlikely that the section will have a large-school league with fewer than six teams. I picked Patterson in my model, because it is the largest school by enrollment that could be moved. If my prediction is correct, then the CCC will likely drop to division II, which means that Oakdale could see some of these schools in the playoffs in football. Modesto Metro Conference (MMC) Current: Beyer, Davis, Downey, Enochs, Gregori, Johansen, Modesto, Modesto Christian (basketball only) My prediction: Beyer, Downey, Enochs, Gregori, Modesto, Pitman, Turlock, Modesto Christian (basketball only) Possible Curveball: Beyer, Downey, Enochs, Gregori, Modesto, Modesto Christian (basketball only), and either Central Catholic, Oakdale, Patterson, or two out of the three. Notes: The Modesto Bee convinced me that Pitman and Turlock will be joining this league. It will probably be the league of the largest schools in the Modesto-area. We did have one difference. They have Beyer leaving, along with Davis and Johansen. I think Beyer stays. If the enrollment drops as low as I have been hearing, then I think Beyer will go to the Valley Oak League. For now, I have Beyer staying put. The alignment I put as the “curveball” is the one I originally had before I read other articles on the subject. San Joaquin Athletic Association (SJAA) Current: Bear Creek, Chavez, Edison, Franklin, McNair, Stagg My prediction: No changes Possible curveball: Chavez, Edison, Franklin, Lincoln, St. Mary's, Stagg Notes There is not a lot to change here, unless the section is going to make changes for the sake of changes, which is unlikely. One other possible change I can see is having Lincoln join the SJAA and Stagg leaving for the TCAL. However, I think it's likely we will see no change. Tri-City Athletic League (TCAL) Current: Lincoln, Lodi, St. Mary's, Tokay, Tracy, West My Prediction: Kimball, Lincoln, Lodi, St. Mary's, Tokay, Tracy, West Possible Curveball: Bear Creek, Kimball, Lodi, McNair, Tokay, Tracy, West Notes Again, there is not a lot of change here. The one exception is that Kimball will probably be large enough to join the other Tracy schools. I put Bear Creek and McNair as part of the curve ball, because though they are Stockton schools, they are in the Lodi School District. Perhaps all the high schools in the district could be in the same league. I will throw a giant curveball here. Perhaps Sheldon of Sacramento might join the league. I really don't think there is any chance of that happening, but they struggle in football, and no move in the Sacramento area is going to change that. I don't think that the section would really mix in north and south teams in a league as a full member, but it actually was once considered. (Around ten years ago, the section considered Galt and Liberty Ranch to join the Valley Oak League.) Current Division III League Valley Oak League (VOL) Current: Central Catholic, East Union, Kimball, Lathrop, Manteca, Oakdale, Sierra, Weston Ranch My Prediction: Central Catholic, East Union, Lathrop, Manteca, Oakdale, Sierra, Weston Ranch Possible Curveball: Beyer, Central Catholic, Manteca, Modesto Christian, Oakdale, St. Mary's, Sierra, Weston Ranch Notes For my actual prediction, there is not a lot to change. Kimball should be with all the Tracy schools. Another possibility is if Beyer is going to have a low enrollment, then it should go to the VOL. As for the curveball, what if the Section wants to create a super conference like the two it has up north? The VOL is a great league to make it happen. There are already state champions and other powers in football and basketball in the league. Beyer and Modesto Christian would add firepower to basketball, and St. Mary's would add it to football. I do think that no matter what happens, the VOL will move up to a division II league because of all the success. Current Division IV League Western Athletic Conference (WAC) Current: Central Valley, Ceres, Livingston, Los Banos, Pacheco, Patterson My prediction: Central Valley, Ceres, Davis, Johansen, Livingston, Mountain House, Pacheco Possible curveball: Central Valley joins Patterson in leaving the WAC, but I do not have a destination in mind for the Hawks. Notes Most writers and fans agree that there will be some changes in this league. Everyone I have either talked to or read from says that Davis and Johansen will be in this league. Mountain House plays as a “wildcard” here. The enrollment is low, and until the town grows and the high school is large enough for it to join the TCAL, the Mustangs need to be somewhere. I think it will progressively move toward the TCAL, which means that the next stop is the WAC. Current Division V leagues Mother Lode League (MLL) Current: Amador, Argonaut, Bret Harte, Calaveras, Linden, Sonora, Summerville My prediction: Amador, Argonaut, Bret Harte, Calaveras, Linden, Riverbank, Summerville Possible curveball: Same alignment as my prediction, except Calaveras leaves and Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage joins Notes Sonora has proven to be too good in football to stay in this league. I know Riverbank is a curveball geographically, but some games in football would be winnable for them, and Riverbank vs. Calaveras would make a good match-up in basketball. Trans Valley League (TVL) Current: Escalon, Hilmar, Hughson, Modesto Christian (non-basketball), Mountain House, Ripon, Riverbank (non-football), Ripon Christian (basketball only) My prediction: Escalon, Hilmar, Hughson, Modesto Christian (non-basketball), Orestimba, Ripon, Sonora Possible curveball: Calaveras, Escalon, Hilmar, Hughson, MC (non-basketball), Orestimba, Ripon, Sonora Notes In reality, there are not many changes that need to be made. Sonora should be added, because the football and volleyball teams are too talented for the MLL. The addition of Calaveras isn’t as crucial, therefore it will likely stay in the MLL. However, the enrollment is comparable to those of the TVL schools. How large will that have to be before they are forced to join the TVL? Current Division VI League Southern League (SL) Current: Delhi, Denair, Gustine, LeGrand, Mariposa, Orestimba, Ripon Christian (non-basketball), Waterford My prediction: Same teams except for Orestimba. Possible curveball/notes: Depending on how events occur, I can see Modesto Christian coming back for all sports except for basketball. I can also see Big Valley joining the league. Division VII Leagues Notes on the CCAA and MVL. The only possible change I see is perhaps Jim Elliot Christian going to the MVL to be in the same league as Lodi Academy, especially if the Eagles are no longer going to have football. On that subject, the CCAA should be an 8-man football league. That would make it easier for those schools to have football, and perhaps some MVL schools could have football. I will throw a curveball for the MVL. How about Lee Vining joining the league? Does someone know why it is in the Southern Section anyway. Geographically it is north of some Sac-Joaquin Section schools. The farthest school from it in the MVL is closer than some of the schools in the league It’s in now. I know the MVL would reject the idea due to travel, but it is a move the Section should consider.