Last week, Richard Estrada of www.blackhatfootball.com reported that the Sac-Joaquin section will likely accept new proposals for the 2014 football season football playoffs. First, if a team wins three section championships in a row, it will be required to move up a division the next year. That rule would not start until 2015. (Truth be told, I thought that rule was already in place. It is the rule in basketball and volleyball). The second proposal is to group divisions I-V and make division VI a group of its own. Divsions I and II would remain a 16-team playoff, divisions III, IV, and V would be 12 teams, and division VI would remain at 6 teams. In addition, division VI would only include the CCAA and SMAL. (To see the full story, go to www.blackhatfootball.com)
This week, I will present the playoff projections in the current system, and under the new proposal. A couple changes I will make in presentation is that both automatic teams in each league will be in red. In previous posts, I only put the league leaders in red, but the top 2 in each league are automatics for playoffs, despite the overall record. Also I will only mention the last two in for the groups I-IV, because they would be the first two out under the new proposal.
CURRENT FORMAT
Division I (Current Champion: Granite Bay Grizzlies-currently 1-1, 5-2)
(16) Lincoln (Stockton) (SJAA) 2-5 @ (1) Folsom (DRL) 7-0
(9) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 5-2 @ (8) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 5-2
(12) Edison (Stockton) (TCAL) 5-2 @ (5) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DRL) 6-1
(13) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DVL) 4-3 @ (4) Oak Ridge (DRL) 6-1
(11) Modesto (MMC) 4-3 @ (6) Tokay (Lodi) (TCAL) 6-1
(14) River City (West Sacramento) (SVC) 4-4 @ (3) Stagg (Stockton) (TCAL) 6-1
(10) Granite Bay (SFL) 5-2 @ (7) Merced (CCC) 5-2
(15) Napa (MEL) 4-3 @ (2) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (DRL) 7-0
Division II (Current Champion: Folsom Bulldogs-currently 2-0, 7-0)
(16) Atwater (CCC) 4-3 @ (1) Elk Grove (DVL) 7-0
(9) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 5-2 @ (8) Cosumnes Oaks (Elk Grove) (SVC) 5-2
(12) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 5-3 @ (5) Del Oro (Loomis) (SFL) 5-2
(13) Vacaville (MEL) 4-3 @ (4) Yuba City (TCC) 6-1
(11) Burbank (Sacramento) (ML) 5-2 @ (6) Antelope (CAL) 5-2
(14) Whitney (Rocklin) (CAL) 4-3 @ (3) Tracy (SJAA) 6-1
(10) Rocklin (SFL) 5-2 @ (7) Beyer (Modesto) (MMC) 5-2
(15) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 4-3 @ (2) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 6-1
Division III (Current Champion: Oakdale Mustangs-currently 3-1, 4-3)
(16) Placer (Auburn) (PVL) 3-4 @ (1) Patterson (WAC) 7-0
(9) Casa Roble (Orangevale) 6-1 @ (8) Benicia (SCAC) 6-1
(12) River Valley (Yuba City) (TCC) 5-2 @ (5) Rio Linda (CVC) 6-1
(13) Sacramento (ML) 5-2 @ (4) Manteca (VOL) 6-1
(11) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 5-2 @ (6) Lincoln (PVL) 6-1
(14) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 5-2 @ (3) American Canyon (SCAC) 6-1
(10) Pacheco (Los Banos) (WAC) 6-2 @ (7) Vista del Lago (Folsom) (SVC) 6-2
(15) Oakdale (VOL) 4-3 @ (2) Rosemont (Sacramento) (ML) 7-0
Note: I believe the Section has the authority to switch the seeds of Oakdale and Sierra since Oakdale won the head-to-head game, and Oakdale would get the 2nd place slot and Sierra would be an at-large, but unless two teams of the same league would get matched up, I am just going by the math.
Division IV (Current Champion: Central Catholic Raiders-currently 3-0, 6-1)
(16) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 4-3 @ (1) Hilmar (TVL) 8-0
(9) Bear River (Grass Valley) (PVL) 5-2 @ (8) Liberty Ranch (Galt) (SVC) 5-3
(12) Marysville (GEL) 4-3 @ (5) Colfax (PVL) 6-1
(13) Escalon (TVL) 4-3 @ (4) Capital Christian (Sacramento) (GEL) 6-1
(11) West Campus (GEL) 5-2 @ (6) Amador (MLL) 6-1
(14) Modesto Christian (TVL) 4-3 @ (3) Central Catholic (Modesto) (WAC) 6-1
(10) Hughson (TVL) 5-2 @ (7) Calaveras (MLL) 5-2
(15) Argonaut (Jackson) (MLL) 4-3 @ (2) Ripon (TVL) 7-1
Note: The section would probably switch Calaveras and Amador for the same reason it could switch Oakdale and Sierra in division III.
Division V (Current Champion: Le Grand Bulldogs-currently 4-0, 7-0)
(5) Gustine (SL) 4-3 @ (4) Millennium (Tracy) (CCAA) 4-3
winner would play @ (1) Le Grand (SL) 7-0
(6) Waterford (SL) 3-4 @ (3) Mariposa (SL) 6-1
winner would play @ (2) Rio Vista (SDL) 6-1
Note: In this case, an intra-league first round match-up cannot be avoided. Therefore, I just stuck with the math.
Division VI (Current Champion: Brookside Christian Knights-currently 2-0, 4-3)
(5) Brookside Christian (Stockton) (CCAA) 4-3 @ (4) Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) (SDL) 5-2
winner would play @ (1) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 6-1
(6) Big Valley (Modesto) (CCAA) 4-3 @ (3) Foresthill (SMAL) 5-3
winner would play @ (2) Ripon Christian (SL) 6-1
WHAT THIS YEAR'S PLAYOFFS WOULD LOOK LIKE UNDER NEW PROPOSAL
Division I
(16) Lincoln (Stockton) (SJAA) 2-5 @ (1) Folsom (DRL) 7-0
(9) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 5-2 @ (8) Merced (CCC) 5-2
(12) Modesto (MMC) 4-3 @ (5) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills) (DRL) 6-1
(13) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DVL) 4-3 @ (4) Stagg (Stockton) (TCAL) 6-1
(11) Granite Bay (SFL) 5-2 @ (6) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DRL) 6-1
(14) Edison (Stockton) (TCAL) 5-2 @ (3) Tracy (SJAA) 6-1
(10) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 5-2 @ (7) Tokay (Lodi) (TCAL) 6-1
(15) River City (West Sacramento) (SVC) 4-4 @ (2) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (DRL) 7-0
Division II
(16) Whitney (Rocklin) (CAL) 4-3 @ (1) Elk Grove (DVL) 7-0
(9) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 5-2 @ (8) Cosumnes Oaks (Elk Grove) (SVC) 5-2
(12) River Valley (Yuba City) 5-2 @ (5) Del Oro (Loomis) (SFL) 5-2
(13) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 5-3 @ (4) Yuba City (TCC) 6-1
(11) Burbank (Sacramento) (ML) 5-2 @ (6) Antelope (CAL) 5-2
(14) Vacaville (MEL) 4-3 @ (3) Rio Linda (CVC) 6-1
(10) Rocklin (SFL) 5-2 @ (7) Beyer (Modesto) (MMC) 5-2
(15) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 4-3 @ (2) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 6-1
Division III
(9) Pacheco (Los Banos) (WAC) 6-2 @ (8) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CVC) 6-1
winner would play at (1) Patterson (WAC) 7-0
(12) Oakdale (VOL) 4-3 @ (5) Lincoln (PVL) 6-1
winner would play at (5) Manteca (VOL) 6-1
(11) Sacramento (ML) 5-2 @ (6) Vista del Lago (Folsom) 6-2
winner would play at (3) American Canyon (SCAC) 6-1
(10) Inderkum (Sacramento) 5-2 @ (7) Benicia (SCAC) 6-1
winner would play at (2) Rosemont (Sacramento) (ML) 7-0
Division IV
(9) West Campus (Sacramento) (GEL) 5-2 @ (8) Hughson (TVL) 5-2
winner would play at (1) Ripon (TVL) 7-1
(12) Placer (Auburn) (PVL) 3-4 @ (5) Liberty Ranch (Galt) (SVC) 5-3
winner would play at (4) Calaveras (MLL) 5-2
(11) Marysville (GEL) 4-3 @ (6) Bear River (Grass Valley) 5-2
winner would play at (3) Central Catholic (Modesto) (WAC) 6-1
(10) Escalon (TVL) 4-3 @ (7) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 5-2
winner would play at (2) Colfax (PVL) 6-1
Division V
(9) Argonaut (Jackson) (MLL) 5-2 @ (8) Mariposa (SL) 6-1
winner would play @ (1) Hilmar (TVL)
(12) Modesto Christian (TVL) 4-3 @ (5) Ripon Christian (SL) 6-1
winner would play @ (4) Central Catholic (Modesto) (WAC) 6-1
(11) Gustine (SL) 4-3 @ (6) Rio Vista (SDL) 6-1
winner would play @ (3) Capital Christian (Sacramento) 6-1
(7) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 6-1 @ (10) Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) (SDL) 5-2
winner would play @ (2) Le Grand (SL) 7-0
Division VI
(5) Millennium (Tracy) (CCAA) 4-3 @ (4) Big Valley (CCAA) 4-3
winner would play @ (1) Woodland Chrisitian (SMAL) 6-1
(6) Stone Ridge Christian (Merced) (CCAA) 3-4 @ (3) Brookside Christian (Stockton) (CCAA) 4-3
winner would be @ (2) Foresthill (SMAL) 5-3
Teams in current format that would be out in proposal: Atwater, Napa, Waterford
Team in proposal that is out in current format: Stone Ridge Christian
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
209 Sports week 5 of the Sac-Joaquin Section Football Playoff Projections
We are officially half-way through the season. For most teams, this week will end the non-league portion of the season. (Note: The one exception is the SMAL teams have mid-season non-league games).
Key= 209 teams in bold and italics. League leaders in red. ^=Teams not in last week's projections.
Division I (Current Champion- Granite Bay Grizzlies, currently 4-1)
(16) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (1) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills) (DRL) 3-2
(9) Davis (DVL) 4-1 @ (8) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 4-1
(12) River City^ (West Sacramento) (SVC) 3-3 @ (5) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (DRL) 5-0
(13) Napa (MEL) 3-2 @ (4) Edison (Stockton) (TCAL) 5-0
(11) Stagg (Stockton) (TCAL) 4-1 @ (6) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DRL) 5-0
(14) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 3-2 @ (3) Folsom (DRL) 5-0
(10) Turlock (CCC) 4-1 @ (7) Granite Bay (SFL) 4-1
(15) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (2) Tokay (Lodi) (TCAL) 5-0
Bubble Teams: Could move down a division: Folsom, Tokay
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Oak Ridge @ Folsom 5-0
Tokay vs. St. Mary's (Stockton) 3-2
Division II (Current Champion- Folsom Bulldogs, currently 5-0)
(16) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 3-2 @ (1) Yuba City (TCC) 5-0
(9) Del Oro (Loomis) 3-2 @ (8) Ponderosa (Shingle Springs) (DRL) 4-1
(12) Roseville (SFL) 3-2 @ (5) Tracy (SJAA) 4-1
(13) Rocklin (SFL) 3-2 @ (4) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 4-1
(11) Antelope (CAL) 3-2 @ (6) Beyer (Modesto) (MMC) 4-2
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) @ (3) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 4-2
(10) Burbank^ (Sacramento) (ML) 3-2 @ (7) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 4-2
(15) Atwater (CCC) 3-2 @ (2) Elk Grove (DVL) 5-0
Bubble Teams: Could move up a division: Roseville, Tracy
Bubble Team: Could move down a division: Yuba City
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Yuba City vs. Inderkum (Sacramento) 3-2
Elk Grove vs. Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) 1-4
Division III (Current Champion- Oakdale Mustangs, currently 2-0, 3-2)
(16) Oakdale^ (VOL) 3-2 @ (1) Rosemont (ML) 5-0
(9) Pacheco^ (Los Banos) (WAC) 4-1 @ (8) Vista del Lago (Folsom) (SVC) 4-2
(12) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 3-2 @ (5) Manteca (VOL) 4-1
(13) River Valley^ (Yuba City) (TCC) 3-2 @ (4) Rio Linda (CVC) 4-1
(6) Benicia (SCAC) 4-1 @ (11) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2
(14) Central Valley (Ceres) (WAC) 3-3 @ (3) American Canyon (SCAC) 4-1
(10) Lincoln (PVL) 4-1 @ (7) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CVC) 4-1
(15) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 3-3 @ (2) Patterson (WAC) 5-0
Bubble Teams: Could move up a division: Rio Linda, River Valley
Bubble Teams: Could move down a division: El Dorado, Vista del Lago
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Rosemont vs. McClatchy (Sacramento) 2-3 (Saturday 10/12)
Patterson vs. Ceres 2-4
Division IV (Current Champion- Central Catholic Raiders, currently 2-0, 5-1)
(16) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-2 @ (1) Ripon (TVL) 6-0
(9) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 4-1 @ (8) Capital Christian (Sacramento) (GEL) 4-1
(12) Los Banos (WAC) 4-1 @ (5) Bear River (Grass Valley) (PVL) 5-0
(13) Escalon (TVL) 3-3 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 5-0
(11) Hughson (TVL) 4-1 @ (6) Central Catholic (Modesto) 5-1
(14) Modesto Chrisitan (TVL) 3-3 @ (3) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 5-0
(10) West Campus (Sacramento) (GEL) 4-1 @ (7) Liberty Ranch (Galt) (SVC) 4-2
(15) Linden (MLL) 3-2 @ (2) Hilmar (TVL) 6-0
Bubble Teams: Could move up a division: Center, Sierra (Both D-III in last week's projections)
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Ripon @ Hughson 4-1
Hilmar vs. Riverbank 2-3
Borderline for Divisions I-IV
Last 4 in
Oakdale (Division III Bracket)
Grant (Division II Bracket)
El Dorado (Division III Bracket)
Central Valley (Division III Bracket)
First 4 Out Next 4 Out 3rd 4 Out
Vanden (Fairfield) 3-2 Sacramento 3-2 Pioneer (Woodland) 3-2
Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) 3-2 Bethel (Fairfield) 3-2 Calaveras (San Andreas) 3-2
Chr. Brothers (Sacramento) 3-2 Marysville 3-2 Modesto 2-3
Sheldon (Sacramento) 3-2 Cosumnes Oaks (Elk Grove) 3-2 Vacaville 2-3
Division V (Current Champion- Le Grand Bulldogs, currently 2-0, 5-0)
(5) Golden Sierra^ (Garden Valley (SDL) 1-4 @ (4) Waterford^ (SL) 3-2
winner would play @ (1) Le Grand (SL) 5-0
(6) Delhi (SL) 3-2 @ (3) Millennium (Tracy) (CCAA) 3-2
winner would play @ (2) Mariposa (SL) 4-1
Bubble Teams: None
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Le Grand vs. Waterford 3-2
Mariposa vs. Denair 0-5
Division VI (Current Champion-Brookside Christian Knights, currently 2-3)
(5) Foresthill (SMAL) 3-3 @ (4) Rio Vista (SDL) 3-3
winner would play @ (1) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 5-1
(6) Brookside Chrisitan^ (Stockton) (CCAA) 2-3 @ (3) Ripon Christian (SL) 4-1
winner would play @ (2) Bradshaw Chrisitan (Sacramento) (SDL) 4-2
Bubble Teams: Could Move Up a Division: Bradshaw Christian, Rio Vista
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Woodland Christian has a bye
Bradshaw Christian @ Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) 1-4
Divisions V-VI Borderline
Last 2 In First 2 Out
Delhi (Division V Bracket) San Juan (Citrus Heights) 3-2
Waterford (Division V Bracket) Encina (Sacramento) 3-3
Key= 209 teams in bold and italics. League leaders in red. ^=Teams not in last week's projections.
Division I (Current Champion- Granite Bay Grizzlies, currently 4-1)
(16) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (1) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills) (DRL) 3-2
(9) Davis (DVL) 4-1 @ (8) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 4-1
(12) River City^ (West Sacramento) (SVC) 3-3 @ (5) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (DRL) 5-0
(13) Napa (MEL) 3-2 @ (4) Edison (Stockton) (TCAL) 5-0
(11) Stagg (Stockton) (TCAL) 4-1 @ (6) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DRL) 5-0
(14) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 3-2 @ (3) Folsom (DRL) 5-0
(10) Turlock (CCC) 4-1 @ (7) Granite Bay (SFL) 4-1
(15) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (2) Tokay (Lodi) (TCAL) 5-0
Bubble Teams: Could move down a division: Folsom, Tokay
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Oak Ridge @ Folsom 5-0
Tokay vs. St. Mary's (Stockton) 3-2
Division II (Current Champion- Folsom Bulldogs, currently 5-0)
(16) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 3-2 @ (1) Yuba City (TCC) 5-0
(9) Del Oro (Loomis) 3-2 @ (8) Ponderosa (Shingle Springs) (DRL) 4-1
(12) Roseville (SFL) 3-2 @ (5) Tracy (SJAA) 4-1
(13) Rocklin (SFL) 3-2 @ (4) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 4-1
(11) Antelope (CAL) 3-2 @ (6) Beyer (Modesto) (MMC) 4-2
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) @ (3) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 4-2
(10) Burbank^ (Sacramento) (ML) 3-2 @ (7) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 4-2
(15) Atwater (CCC) 3-2 @ (2) Elk Grove (DVL) 5-0
Bubble Teams: Could move up a division: Roseville, Tracy
Bubble Team: Could move down a division: Yuba City
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Yuba City vs. Inderkum (Sacramento) 3-2
Elk Grove vs. Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) 1-4
Division III (Current Champion- Oakdale Mustangs, currently 2-0, 3-2)
(16) Oakdale^ (VOL) 3-2 @ (1) Rosemont (ML) 5-0
(9) Pacheco^ (Los Banos) (WAC) 4-1 @ (8) Vista del Lago (Folsom) (SVC) 4-2
(12) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 3-2 @ (5) Manteca (VOL) 4-1
(13) River Valley^ (Yuba City) (TCC) 3-2 @ (4) Rio Linda (CVC) 4-1
(6) Benicia (SCAC) 4-1 @ (11) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2
(14) Central Valley (Ceres) (WAC) 3-3 @ (3) American Canyon (SCAC) 4-1
(10) Lincoln (PVL) 4-1 @ (7) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CVC) 4-1
(15) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 3-3 @ (2) Patterson (WAC) 5-0
Bubble Teams: Could move up a division: Rio Linda, River Valley
Bubble Teams: Could move down a division: El Dorado, Vista del Lago
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Rosemont vs. McClatchy (Sacramento) 2-3 (Saturday 10/12)
Patterson vs. Ceres 2-4
Division IV (Current Champion- Central Catholic Raiders, currently 2-0, 5-1)
(16) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-2 @ (1) Ripon (TVL) 6-0
(9) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 4-1 @ (8) Capital Christian (Sacramento) (GEL) 4-1
(12) Los Banos (WAC) 4-1 @ (5) Bear River (Grass Valley) (PVL) 5-0
(13) Escalon (TVL) 3-3 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 5-0
(11) Hughson (TVL) 4-1 @ (6) Central Catholic (Modesto) 5-1
(14) Modesto Chrisitan (TVL) 3-3 @ (3) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 5-0
(10) West Campus (Sacramento) (GEL) 4-1 @ (7) Liberty Ranch (Galt) (SVC) 4-2
(15) Linden (MLL) 3-2 @ (2) Hilmar (TVL) 6-0
Bubble Teams: Could move up a division: Center, Sierra (Both D-III in last week's projections)
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Ripon @ Hughson 4-1
Hilmar vs. Riverbank 2-3
Borderline for Divisions I-IV
Last 4 in
Oakdale (Division III Bracket)
Grant (Division II Bracket)
El Dorado (Division III Bracket)
Central Valley (Division III Bracket)
First 4 Out Next 4 Out 3rd 4 Out
Vanden (Fairfield) 3-2 Sacramento 3-2 Pioneer (Woodland) 3-2
Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) 3-2 Bethel (Fairfield) 3-2 Calaveras (San Andreas) 3-2
Chr. Brothers (Sacramento) 3-2 Marysville 3-2 Modesto 2-3
Sheldon (Sacramento) 3-2 Cosumnes Oaks (Elk Grove) 3-2 Vacaville 2-3
Division V (Current Champion- Le Grand Bulldogs, currently 2-0, 5-0)
(5) Golden Sierra^ (Garden Valley (SDL) 1-4 @ (4) Waterford^ (SL) 3-2
winner would play @ (1) Le Grand (SL) 5-0
(6) Delhi (SL) 3-2 @ (3) Millennium (Tracy) (CCAA) 3-2
winner would play @ (2) Mariposa (SL) 4-1
Bubble Teams: None
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Le Grand vs. Waterford 3-2
Mariposa vs. Denair 0-5
Division VI (Current Champion-Brookside Christian Knights, currently 2-3)
(5) Foresthill (SMAL) 3-3 @ (4) Rio Vista (SDL) 3-3
winner would play @ (1) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 5-1
(6) Brookside Chrisitan^ (Stockton) (CCAA) 2-3 @ (3) Ripon Christian (SL) 4-1
winner would play @ (2) Bradshaw Chrisitan (Sacramento) (SDL) 4-2
Bubble Teams: Could Move Up a Division: Bradshaw Christian, Rio Vista
Week 6 Opponents for top 2 seeds: Woodland Christian has a bye
Bradshaw Christian @ Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) 1-4
Divisions V-VI Borderline
Last 2 In First 2 Out
Delhi (Division V Bracket) San Juan (Citrus Heights) 3-2
Waterford (Division V Bracket) Encina (Sacramento) 3-3
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
209 Sports High School Football Playoff Projections (Week 4)
The way I project the teams is based on the best math I can possibly do, and it is also based on if the season ended today. At the end of the season, you will see some of these teams in the playoffs, some will be eliminated. By the end of the season, we will all find out who is good, and whose good and bad fortunes were products of how the individual teams schedueled their non-league.
Several leagues began league-play this past weekend: Metro League, Modesto Metro Conference, Sierra Valley Conference, Trans Valley League, Valley Oak League, and Western Athletic Conference in the Division I-IV Group. Southern League started in the Division V-VI Group. Also in the Division V-VI group, the Sacramento Metro Athletic League is one of the few leagues in the state in which the teams play each other twice each year, so that league has had a few league games already.
One change I am making in this projections is that the team with the worst record in each league will be out, no matter how good its record is. The one rule the Sac-Joaquin has in the at-large berths is that an at-large team must have at least two league wins, and the likelyhood that the last place team will have two wins is so low that I will keep them out. This will affect one team in this week's projections.
Key: 209 teams in italics and bold. League leaders in red. ^=Teams not in last week's projections.
Division I (Current Champion: Granite Bay Grizzlies- currently 3-1)
(16) Stagg (Stockton)^ (TCAL) 3-1 @ (1) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills (DRL) 5-0
(9) Turlock (CCC) 4-1 @ (8) Davis (DVL) 4-1
(12) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 3-2 @ (5) Edison (Stockton) (TCAL) 4-0
(13) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (4) Folsom (DRL) 5-0
(11) Napa (MEL)^ 3-2 @ (6) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DRL) 4-0
(14) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (3) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (DRL) 5-0
(10) Granite Bay (SFL) 3-1 @ (7) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 4-1
(15) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (2) Tokay (Lodi) (TCAL) 5-0
Bubble Teams (could move down a division): Folsom, Tokay
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Oak Ridge has a bye
Tokay has a bye
Division II (Current Champion: Folsom Bulldogs- currently 5-0)
(16) Del Oro (Loomis)^ (SFL) 2-2 @ (1) Yuba City (TCC) 5-0
(9) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 3-2 @ (8) Rio Linda (CVC)^ 3-1
(12) Atwater (CCC) 3-2 @ (5) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(13) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 3-2 @ (4) Tracy (SJAA) 4-1
(11) Roseville (SFL) 3-2 @ (6) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 3-1
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 3-1 @ (3) Ponderosa (DRL) 4-0
(10) Antelope (CAL) 3-2 @ (7) Rocklin (SFL) 3-2
(15) Beyer (Modesto) (MMC) 3-2 @ (2) Elk Grove (DVL) 5-0
Bubble teams (Could move up a division): Roseville, Tracy
Bubble teams (Could move down a division): Rio Linda, Yuba City
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Yuba City has a bye
Elk Grove has a bye
Division III (Current Champion: Oakdale Mustangs- currently 1-0, 2-2)
(16) Lincoln (PVL)^ 3-1 @ (1) Rosemont (Sacramento) (ML) 4-0
(9) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 3-2 @(8) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2
(12) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 3-2 @ (5) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CVC) 4-1
(13) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-2 @ (4) American Canyon (SCAC) 4-1
(11) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 3-1 @ (6) Benicia (SCAC) 4-1
(14) Central Valley (Ceres) (WAC) 3-2 @ (3) Vista del Lago (Folsom) (SVC) 4-1
(10) Sacramento (ML) 3-1 @ (7) Manteca (VOL) 3-1
(15) Christian Brothers (Sacramento) (CVC) @ (2) Patterson (WAC) 4-0
Bubble Teams (Could move up a division): Central Valley, El Camino
Bubble Teams (Could move down a division): Center, Sierra
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Rosemont vs. Valley (Sacramento) 0-4 @ Cosumnes River Coll. (Sac)
Patterson vs. Central Valley (Ceres) 3-2
Division IV (Current Champion: Central Catholic Raiders- currently 1-0, 4-1)
(16) Marysville (GEL)^ 3-2 @ (1) Ripon (TVL) 5-0
(9) Los Banos (WAC) 4-1 @ (8) Capital Christian (Sacramento) 4-1
(12) Calaveras (San Andreas) (MLL) 3-1 @ (5) Bear River (Grass Valley) (PVL) 4-0
(13) Modesto Christian (TVL) 3-2 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 4-0
(11) Liberty Ranch (Galt) (SVC) @ (6) Hughson (TVL) 4-0
(14) Linden (MLL) 3-2 @ (3) Hilmar (TVL) 5-0
(10) West Campus (Sacramento) (GEL) 4-1 @ (7) Central Catholic (Modesto) (WAC) 4-1
(15) Escalon (TVL) 2-3 @ (2) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 5-0
Bubble Teams: None
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Ripon vs. Modesto Christian 3-2
Amador has a bye
Division I-IV Group borderline
Last 4 teams in:
Del Oro (Division II Bracket), Escalon (Division IV Bracket), Lincoln (Division III Bracket), Christian Brothers (Division III Bracket)
First 4 teams out Next 4 out 3rd 4 out
Sheldon (Sacramento) 3-2- last in league Whitney (Rocklin) 2-3 Bethel (Fairfield) 2-2
Modesto 2-3 Oakdale 2-2 Vintage (Napa) 2-3
River Valley (Yuba City) 2-2 River City (West Sac.) 2-3 Golden Valley (Merced) 2-3
Burbank (Sacramento) 2-2 Bella Vista (Fair Oaks) 2-3 Cosumnes Oaks (EG) 2-2
Division V (Current Champion: Le Grand Bulldogs- currently 1-0, 4-0)
(5) Delhi (SL) 3-1 @ (4) San Juan (Citrus Heights) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (1) Le Grand (SL) 4-0
(6) Mariposa (SL) 3-1 @ (3) Encina (Sacramento) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (2) Millennium (CCAA) 3-2
Bubble teams: None
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Le Grand vs. Delhi 3-1
Millennium has a bye
Division VI (Current Champion: Brookside Christian Knights- currently 1-3)
(5) Stone Ridge Christian (Merced) (CCAA) 2-2 @ (4) Ripon Christian (SL)^ 3-1
winner would play at (1) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 5-0
(6) Foresthill (SMAL) 2-3 @ (3) Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (2) Rio Vista (SDL) 4-0
Bubble teams (Could move up a division): Bradshaw Christian, Rio Vista
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Woodland Christian vs. Jim Elliot Chrisitan (Lodi) 0-3
Rio Vista @ Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) 3-2
Division V-VI Borderline
Last 2 teams in 1st 2 teams out
Mariposa (Division V Bracket) Vacaville Christian (SDL) 2-1
Delhi (Division V Bracket) Waterford (SL) 2-2
Several leagues began league-play this past weekend: Metro League, Modesto Metro Conference, Sierra Valley Conference, Trans Valley League, Valley Oak League, and Western Athletic Conference in the Division I-IV Group. Southern League started in the Division V-VI Group. Also in the Division V-VI group, the Sacramento Metro Athletic League is one of the few leagues in the state in which the teams play each other twice each year, so that league has had a few league games already.
One change I am making in this projections is that the team with the worst record in each league will be out, no matter how good its record is. The one rule the Sac-Joaquin has in the at-large berths is that an at-large team must have at least two league wins, and the likelyhood that the last place team will have two wins is so low that I will keep them out. This will affect one team in this week's projections.
Key: 209 teams in italics and bold. League leaders in red. ^=Teams not in last week's projections.
Division I (Current Champion: Granite Bay Grizzlies- currently 3-1)
(16) Stagg (Stockton)^ (TCAL) 3-1 @ (1) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills (DRL) 5-0
(9) Turlock (CCC) 4-1 @ (8) Davis (DVL) 4-1
(12) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 3-2 @ (5) Edison (Stockton) (TCAL) 4-0
(13) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (4) Folsom (DRL) 5-0
(11) Napa (MEL)^ 3-2 @ (6) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DRL) 4-0
(14) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (3) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (DRL) 5-0
(10) Granite Bay (SFL) 3-1 @ (7) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 4-1
(15) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (2) Tokay (Lodi) (TCAL) 5-0
Bubble Teams (could move down a division): Folsom, Tokay
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Oak Ridge has a bye
Tokay has a bye
Division II (Current Champion: Folsom Bulldogs- currently 5-0)
(16) Del Oro (Loomis)^ (SFL) 2-2 @ (1) Yuba City (TCC) 5-0
(9) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 3-2 @ (8) Rio Linda (CVC)^ 3-1
(12) Atwater (CCC) 3-2 @ (5) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(13) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 3-2 @ (4) Tracy (SJAA) 4-1
(11) Roseville (SFL) 3-2 @ (6) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 3-1
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 3-1 @ (3) Ponderosa (DRL) 4-0
(10) Antelope (CAL) 3-2 @ (7) Rocklin (SFL) 3-2
(15) Beyer (Modesto) (MMC) 3-2 @ (2) Elk Grove (DVL) 5-0
Bubble teams (Could move up a division): Roseville, Tracy
Bubble teams (Could move down a division): Rio Linda, Yuba City
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Yuba City has a bye
Elk Grove has a bye
Division III (Current Champion: Oakdale Mustangs- currently 1-0, 2-2)
(16) Lincoln (PVL)^ 3-1 @ (1) Rosemont (Sacramento) (ML) 4-0
(9) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 3-2 @(8) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2
(12) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 3-2 @ (5) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CVC) 4-1
(13) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-2 @ (4) American Canyon (SCAC) 4-1
(11) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 3-1 @ (6) Benicia (SCAC) 4-1
(14) Central Valley (Ceres) (WAC) 3-2 @ (3) Vista del Lago (Folsom) (SVC) 4-1
(10) Sacramento (ML) 3-1 @ (7) Manteca (VOL) 3-1
(15) Christian Brothers (Sacramento) (CVC) @ (2) Patterson (WAC) 4-0
Bubble Teams (Could move up a division): Central Valley, El Camino
Bubble Teams (Could move down a division): Center, Sierra
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Rosemont vs. Valley (Sacramento) 0-4 @ Cosumnes River Coll. (Sac)
Patterson vs. Central Valley (Ceres) 3-2
Division IV (Current Champion: Central Catholic Raiders- currently 1-0, 4-1)
(16) Marysville (GEL)^ 3-2 @ (1) Ripon (TVL) 5-0
(9) Los Banos (WAC) 4-1 @ (8) Capital Christian (Sacramento) 4-1
(12) Calaveras (San Andreas) (MLL) 3-1 @ (5) Bear River (Grass Valley) (PVL) 4-0
(13) Modesto Christian (TVL) 3-2 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 4-0
(11) Liberty Ranch (Galt) (SVC) @ (6) Hughson (TVL) 4-0
(14) Linden (MLL) 3-2 @ (3) Hilmar (TVL) 5-0
(10) West Campus (Sacramento) (GEL) 4-1 @ (7) Central Catholic (Modesto) (WAC) 4-1
(15) Escalon (TVL) 2-3 @ (2) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 5-0
Bubble Teams: None
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Ripon vs. Modesto Christian 3-2
Amador has a bye
Division I-IV Group borderline
Last 4 teams in:
Del Oro (Division II Bracket), Escalon (Division IV Bracket), Lincoln (Division III Bracket), Christian Brothers (Division III Bracket)
First 4 teams out Next 4 out 3rd 4 out
Sheldon (Sacramento) 3-2- last in league Whitney (Rocklin) 2-3 Bethel (Fairfield) 2-2
Modesto 2-3 Oakdale 2-2 Vintage (Napa) 2-3
River Valley (Yuba City) 2-2 River City (West Sac.) 2-3 Golden Valley (Merced) 2-3
Burbank (Sacramento) 2-2 Bella Vista (Fair Oaks) 2-3 Cosumnes Oaks (EG) 2-2
Division V (Current Champion: Le Grand Bulldogs- currently 1-0, 4-0)
(5) Delhi (SL) 3-1 @ (4) San Juan (Citrus Heights) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (1) Le Grand (SL) 4-0
(6) Mariposa (SL) 3-1 @ (3) Encina (Sacramento) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (2) Millennium (CCAA) 3-2
Bubble teams: None
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Le Grand vs. Delhi 3-1
Millennium has a bye
Division VI (Current Champion: Brookside Christian Knights- currently 1-3)
(5) Stone Ridge Christian (Merced) (CCAA) 2-2 @ (4) Ripon Christian (SL)^ 3-1
winner would play at (1) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 5-0
(6) Foresthill (SMAL) 2-3 @ (3) Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (2) Rio Vista (SDL) 4-0
Bubble teams (Could move up a division): Bradshaw Christian, Rio Vista
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Woodland Christian vs. Jim Elliot Chrisitan (Lodi) 0-3
Rio Vista @ Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) 3-2
Division V-VI Borderline
Last 2 teams in 1st 2 teams out
Mariposa (Division V Bracket) Vacaville Christian (SDL) 2-1
Delhi (Division V Bracket) Waterford (SL) 2-2
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