The way I project the teams is based on the best math I can possibly do, and it is also based on if the season ended today. At the end of the season, you will see some of these teams in the playoffs, some will be eliminated. By the end of the season, we will all find out who is good, and whose good and bad fortunes were products of how the individual teams schedueled their non-league.
Several leagues began league-play this past weekend: Metro League, Modesto Metro Conference, Sierra Valley Conference, Trans Valley League, Valley Oak League, and Western Athletic Conference in the Division I-IV Group. Southern League started in the Division V-VI Group. Also in the Division V-VI group, the Sacramento Metro Athletic League is one of the few leagues in the state in which the teams play each other twice each year, so that league has had a few league games already.
One change I am making in this projections is that the team with the worst record in each league will be out, no matter how good its record is. The one rule the Sac-Joaquin has in the at-large berths is that an at-large team must have at least two league wins, and the likelyhood that the last place team will have two wins is so low that I will keep them out. This will affect one team in this week's projections.
Key: 209 teams in italics and bold. League leaders in red. ^=Teams not in last week's projections.
Division I (Current Champion: Granite Bay Grizzlies- currently 3-1)
(16) Stagg (Stockton)^ (TCAL) 3-1 @ (1) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills (DRL) 5-0
(9) Turlock (CCC) 4-1 @ (8) Davis (DVL) 4-1
(12) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 3-2 @ (5) Edison (Stockton) (TCAL) 4-0
(13) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (4) Folsom (DRL) 5-0
(11) Napa (MEL)^ 3-2 @ (6) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DRL) 4-0
(14) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (3) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) (DRL) 5-0
(10) Granite Bay (SFL) 3-1 @ (7) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 4-1
(15) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 3-2 @ (2) Tokay (Lodi) (TCAL) 5-0
Bubble Teams (could move down a division): Folsom, Tokay
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Oak Ridge has a bye
Tokay has a bye
Division II (Current Champion: Folsom Bulldogs- currently 5-0)
(16) Del Oro (Loomis)^ (SFL) 2-2 @ (1) Yuba City (TCC) 5-0
(9) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 3-2 @ (8) Rio Linda (CVC)^ 3-1
(12) Atwater (CCC) 3-2 @ (5) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(13) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 3-2 @ (4) Tracy (SJAA) 4-1
(11) Roseville (SFL) 3-2 @ (6) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 3-1
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 3-1 @ (3) Ponderosa (DRL) 4-0
(10) Antelope (CAL) 3-2 @ (7) Rocklin (SFL) 3-2
(15) Beyer (Modesto) (MMC) 3-2 @ (2) Elk Grove (DVL) 5-0
Bubble teams (Could move up a division): Roseville, Tracy
Bubble teams (Could move down a division): Rio Linda, Yuba City
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Yuba City has a bye
Elk Grove has a bye
Division III (Current Champion: Oakdale Mustangs- currently 1-0, 2-2)
(16) Lincoln (PVL)^ 3-1 @ (1) Rosemont (Sacramento) (ML) 4-0
(9) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 3-2 @(8) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2
(12) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 3-2 @ (5) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CVC) 4-1
(13) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-2 @ (4) American Canyon (SCAC) 4-1
(11) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 3-1 @ (6) Benicia (SCAC) 4-1
(14) Central Valley (Ceres) (WAC) 3-2 @ (3) Vista del Lago (Folsom) (SVC) 4-1
(10) Sacramento (ML) 3-1 @ (7) Manteca (VOL) 3-1
(15) Christian Brothers (Sacramento) (CVC) @ (2) Patterson (WAC) 4-0
Bubble Teams (Could move up a division): Central Valley, El Camino
Bubble Teams (Could move down a division): Center, Sierra
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Rosemont vs. Valley (Sacramento) 0-4 @ Cosumnes River Coll. (Sac)
Patterson vs. Central Valley (Ceres) 3-2
Division IV (Current Champion: Central Catholic Raiders- currently 1-0, 4-1)
(16) Marysville (GEL)^ 3-2 @ (1) Ripon (TVL) 5-0
(9) Los Banos (WAC) 4-1 @ (8) Capital Christian (Sacramento) 4-1
(12) Calaveras (San Andreas) (MLL) 3-1 @ (5) Bear River (Grass Valley) (PVL) 4-0
(13) Modesto Christian (TVL) 3-2 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 4-0
(11) Liberty Ranch (Galt) (SVC) @ (6) Hughson (TVL) 4-0
(14) Linden (MLL) 3-2 @ (3) Hilmar (TVL) 5-0
(10) West Campus (Sacramento) (GEL) 4-1 @ (7) Central Catholic (Modesto) (WAC) 4-1
(15) Escalon (TVL) 2-3 @ (2) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 5-0
Bubble Teams: None
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Ripon vs. Modesto Christian 3-2
Amador has a bye
Division I-IV Group borderline
Last 4 teams in:
Del Oro (Division II Bracket), Escalon (Division IV Bracket), Lincoln (Division III Bracket), Christian Brothers (Division III Bracket)
First 4 teams out Next 4 out 3rd 4 out
Sheldon (Sacramento) 3-2- last in league Whitney (Rocklin) 2-3 Bethel (Fairfield) 2-2
Modesto 2-3 Oakdale 2-2 Vintage (Napa) 2-3
River Valley (Yuba City) 2-2 River City (West Sac.) 2-3 Golden Valley (Merced) 2-3
Burbank (Sacramento) 2-2 Bella Vista (Fair Oaks) 2-3 Cosumnes Oaks (EG) 2-2
Division V (Current Champion: Le Grand Bulldogs- currently 1-0, 4-0)
(5) Delhi (SL) 3-1 @ (4) San Juan (Citrus Heights) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (1) Le Grand (SL) 4-0
(6) Mariposa (SL) 3-1 @ (3) Encina (Sacramento) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (2) Millennium (CCAA) 3-2
Bubble teams: None
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Le Grand vs. Delhi 3-1
Millennium has a bye
Division VI (Current Champion: Brookside Christian Knights- currently 1-3)
(5) Stone Ridge Christian (Merced) (CCAA) 2-2 @ (4) Ripon Christian (SL)^ 3-1
winner would play at (1) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 5-0
(6) Foresthill (SMAL) 2-3 @ (3) Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) (SDL) 3-2
winner would play at (2) Rio Vista (SDL) 4-0
Bubble teams (Could move up a division): Bradshaw Christian, Rio Vista
Week 5 games for top 2 seeds: Woodland Christian vs. Jim Elliot Chrisitan (Lodi) 0-3
Rio Vista @ Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento) 3-2
Division V-VI Borderline
Last 2 teams in 1st 2 teams out
Mariposa (Division V Bracket) Vacaville Christian (SDL) 2-1
Delhi (Division V Bracket) Waterford (SL) 2-2
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