1) Davis will get moved to the Western Athletic Conference (WAC).
Once Gregori High School became Modesto’s seventh public high school, the enrollment at Davis High School dropped drastically. It quickly went from over 2,000 students to just over 1,400. Enrollment-wise, it is a perfect fit for the WAC. In addition, I read that the section gave Modesto City Schools one last chance to balance the enrollment numbers, or the city's schools will be split into different conferences. The section did not follow through when it had the chance to do a rare move and have the Spartans move conferences in the middle of a realignment period. I predict that the section will follow through this time. While we're at it…
2) Johansen will join Davis in moving to the WAC.
Enrollment wise, Johansen High School would be too large for the WAC with over 1,900 students. However, competitive equity is also a factor in placing schools in conferences. Johansen has not been successful in the Modesto Metro Conference (MMC) in the major sports for a few years. Sometime the section will make moves to help programs out, like allowing Riverbank football to play as an independent. I think it will do the same for the Vikings and move them to the WAC. If I am correct that both Davis and Johansen move to the WAC, that will leave the MMC with five teams in all sports, except for basketball. The section would fill the league with a sixth team. I will not make a formal prediction on who that team would be, but some possible candidates would be Oakdale, Central Catholic, and Modesto Christian.
3) Patterson will join the Valley Oak League (VOL) or the MMC.
Patterson has around 1,700 students. It is too large for the WAC, and the Tigers have some success. Last time, I predicted the Tigers would be in the VOL and I was wrong. It is only now that I am writing this particular prediction that I think the MMC is a possibility. Patterson may soon equal or surpass Johansen’s enrollment, but the Tigers athletically can “hang” with the teams in the MMC whereas the Vikings have struggled. Soon it will get to the point that Patterson is too large for the WAC, and it will have to join one of those two leagues. If the Tigers move to the VOL, one of the teams currently in it will have to leave to prevent a nine-team league. The three most likely choices are either Oakdale or Central Catholic to the MMC or Kimball moves to the Tri City Athletic League.
4) The VOL will be a division II league.
Not only will the section change teams around, but it will change division status of leagues if the teams are too good. A few years ago, the section moved the Sierra Foothill League up to Division I from Division II, because the teams were too good. Currently the VOL is a division III league. As a division III league, the VOL has had a lot of success. Just this year alone, there have been all-VOL finals in football, boy's soccer, and boy's water polo, and the year is only half-over. There could be an All-VOL final in boy’s basketball, too. Also, in football, the league had two section, NorCal, and state champions in Sierra and Central Catholic. The league also had two section champions in girl’s water polo with Oakdale winning in division II and Kimball winning division III. The section could keep Division III at two leagues, but I think either the Metro League or the Solano County Athletic Conference will move down to Division III.
5) The MINUTE the Sac-Joaquin Section decides to make the team wrestling playoff divisions enrollment-based, Oakdale gets bumped up to Division I.
When I was in high school, a certain amount of teams in each league made the playoffs (the amount depended on the specific league), and the playoff divisions and brackets determined where and who each team played. Now many sports have the division assignments based on enrollments. However, some sports still use the old system for playoffs: boy’s and girl’s team tennis, baseball, softball, and team wrestling.
I don't think the section will base wrestling divisions by enrollment any time soon, but I could be wrong. The section will move teams up a division for being too successful. It happened to Central Catholic football. The Raiders were moved up to division III this year, and because they won the championship again this year, they will be moved up to division II next year. There has been one program in the 209 that has even been more successful than Central Catholic football over the past decade, and that has been Oakdale wrestling. The team has won eight championships in a row whether the VOL has been a division IV league or a division III. The team has been ranked in the top-15 in the state (across all divisions), and I have been told there have been JV wrestlers that could have advanced to sections if the wrestlers went to any other school. This year, the Oakdale wrestling team has been as high as #2 in the section and #12 in the state, and that is not even the best team Oakdale has had in the past decade. I am sure the section will want Oakdale to compete against Del Oro, Elk Grove, Vacaville, and Folsom for the playoffs.
Bonus: There will still be no “private school” league.
There are some people who believe that the private schools should not be able to be in the same league as the public schools, and they call for an all-private school league. Technically, there is already three all-private school leagues, the Central California Athletic Alliance, Sacramento Metro Athletic League, and the North Pacific League, but those leagues do not have any power private schools, with the possible exception of Brookside Christian of the CCAA. But, there is no “power private school league” in the Sac-Joaquin Section like the West Catholic League in the Central Coast Section, and there won't be any time soon for two reasons…
There aren't enough teams.
There are only two ways to get enough teams, and neither are plausible. Either have the schools that do not focus on athletics be put in the same leagues that do, and that is not fair. The athletic programs that do not completely focus on sports won't be able to survive, and those kids should have a place to play. The other option is to have a north/south league, but I am sure the section will not want to do that. In the south (209), there are Central Catholic, Modesto Christian, Ripon Christian, St. Mary's, and maybe Brookside Christian. In the north, there are: Capital Christian, Christian Brothers, Jesuit, Sacramento (a charter school, but those schools would be “privates” in the athletic sense), and maybe Bradshaw Christian.
B) There are enough public schools that are just as good, and some even better than the private schools.
In football and basketball, the top-ranked team in the section is public-school Folsom. Jesuit usually finishes third or fourth in the league it is currently in. Central Catholic finished third in the VOL in basketball this year, behind Weston Ranch and Manteca. Also, Oakdale and Central Catholic trade wins. As long as there are enough public schools that can compete, there will not be a “power private school league”.
In 2017, we will find out what the section will decide. I am curious to see if I get any of these predictions correct.
