Week 4 Playoff Projections

I am writing this a week earlier than I intended, because me being behind in technology, I just learned that I can create spreadsheets online.  I wanted to practice using Google spreadsheets and see the difference between that and Microsoft.

There are a few differences between this year and last year.

1) The main group has 6 divisions. The secondary group has 1.  In addition, the secondary group is leaning towards going back to the old system.  The top 3 teams in each league goes.  There are no at-large berths in the secondary group.

2) The number of at-large teams in the main group increases from 24 to 28. 

3) The defending champions have to play in the division they won or higher, regardless of enrollment.  For example, Folsom could have a low-enough enrollment to play in division II, but since it won the Division I championship, it will be in division I this year. 

4) The section has more authority to move teams as it sees fit.  In my model, I will not worry about that.  I will stick to the math for the most part.  There will be two exceptions, 1) I will move teams to avoid two teams in the same league of playing each other in the 1st round (and it still can't be helped in division VII).  2) I will give undefeated teams a priority regardless of the tiebreaker. 

(Pitman is a weird case.  The Pride have fewer games than everyone else.  Pitman is 3-0.  I will not put them over 4 or 5 win teams, but I will put them over 3-1 and 3-2 teams).

In this model, the automatics will go to the best overall records for those leagues that have not played a league game, yet. Also, because only a few leagues just started, I will not enforce the two league win requirement this week.

Here is the model if the regular season ended today (209) teams in bold:

Division I (16 teams) Defending Champion: Folsom Bulldogs
(16) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 1-3 @ (1) Folsom (SFL) 5-0
(9) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (8) Tracy (TCAL) 3-2
(12) Nevada Union (Grass Valley) (SFL) 3-2 @ (5) Tokay (Lodi) (SJAA) 4-1
(13) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 3-1 @ (4) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills) (SFL) 4-1
(11) Lodi (TCAL) 3-1 @ (6) Woodcreek (Roseville) (SFL) 4-1
(14) Chavez (Stockton) (SJAA) 2-2 @ (3) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 4-0
(10) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DVL) 3-1 @ (7) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 3-0
(15) Turlock (CCC) 2-3 @ (2) Modesto (MMC) 5-0

Division II (16 teams) Defending Champion: Del Oro Golden Eagles
(16) Burbank (Sacramento) (ML) 1-3 @ (1) West (Tracy) (TCAL) 4-0
(9) River Valley (Yuba City) (TCC) 3-2 @ (8) Del Campo (Fair Oaks) (CVC) 3-1
(12) Antelope (CVC) 3-1 @ (5) Vintage (Napa) (MEL) 4-1
(13) Buhach Colony (CCC) 3-1 @ (4) Rocklin (SFL) 4-0
(11) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 3-2 @ (6) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 3-1 @ (3) Elk Grove (DVL) 4-0
(10) Vacaville (MEL) 3-1 @ (7) Davis (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(15) Del Oro (Loomis) (SFL) 2-3 @ (2) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 4-0

Division III (16 teams) Defending Champions: Manteca Buffaloes
(16) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CAL) 2-3 @ (1) Cordova (Rancho Cordova) (SVC) 5-0
(9) Vanden (Fairfield) (SCAC) 3-1 @ (8) Sacramento (ML) 3-1
(12) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2 @ (5) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 4-1
(13) Manteca (VOL) 3-1 @ (4) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 4-0
(11) American Canyon (SCAC) 3-2 @ (6) Christian Brothers (Sacramento) (CAL) 4-1
(14) Patterson (WAC) 3-1 @ (3) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 4-0
(10) Pacheco (Los Banos (WAC) 3-2 @ (7) Rio Linda (TCC) 4-1
(15) Placer (Auburn) (PVL) 3-2 @ (2) Oakdale (VOL) 4-0

Division IV (8 teams) Defending Champions: Central Catholic Raiders (Modesto)
(8) Notomas (Sacramento) (GEL) 3-1 @ (1) Sonora (MLL) 4-1
(5) Central Catholic (Modesto) (VOL) 3-1 @ (4) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-1
(6) Galt (SVC) 3-2 @ (3) Los Banos (WAC) 3-2
(7) Union Mine (El Dorado) (SVC) 3-1 @ (2) Livingston (WAC) 4-1

Division V (8 teams) Defending Champions: Le Grand Bulldogs
(8) Orestimba (Newman) (SL) 3-1 @ (1) Hughson (TVL) 4-1
(5) Delhi (SL) 3-1 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 3-1
(6) Summerville (Tuolumne City) (MLL) 3-2 @ (3) Bear River (Grass Valley) 3-1
(7) Escalon (TVL) 3-2 @ (2) Marysville (GEL) 4-1

Division VI (8 teams) Defending Champions: Brookside Christian Knights (Stockton)
(8) Hilmar (TVL) 2-3 @ (1) Capital Christian (Sacramento) (GEL) 5-0
(5) Modesto Christian (TVL) 3-1 @ (4) Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) (SDL) 4-1
(6) Vacaville Christian (SDL) 3-1 @ (3) Ripon Christian (SL) 4-0
(7) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 2-3 @ (2) Rio Vista (SDL) 4-0

Last 4 in: Gregori (Div. I), Hilmar (Div. VI), Turlock (Div. I), Casa Roble (Div. III)
First 4 out: Granite Bay (SFL), Benicia (SCAC), Napa (MEL), Vista del Lago (Folsom) (CAL)

Division VII (6 teams) Defending Champions: There was no division VII last year
(5) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 1-3 @ (4) Delta (Clarksburg) (SMAL) 1-3
winner would play (1) Stone Ridge Christian (Merced) (CCAA) 3-1
(6) Valley Christian (Roseville) (SMAL) 1-3 @ (3) Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage (San Andreas) (CCAA) 3-1
winner would play (2) Jim Elliot Christian (Lodi) (CCAA) 3-1

2015 AAA minor league teams and the new parent clubs

Minor league teams are basically training grounds for players who are trying to enter the major leagues.  The contracts of the players are technically part of the major league team.  Minor league teams have contracts to be part of the major league team organization.  What most people do not know is that these contracts are good for two or four years.  However, the contracts are renewed so often that people rarely notice the contract renewals.  Occasionally, a major league or a minor league team will decide not to renew.  Even more rarely is that several teams will cut ties with the minor league team  and look for orgaizational partnerships elsewhere.  It really becomes a "musical-chairs" type event.  It will happen in the Pacific Coast League of the AAA level.  (Note: The Pacific Coast League covers the teams west of the Mississippi River, though a few teams east of it are also in the PCL).  The International League (or East Coast) will remain unchanged.

Pacific Coast League Changes

AAA Team                                                       2015 Parent Club             2014 Parent Club
Sacramento River Cats                                    San Francisco Giants        Oakland A's
Fresno Grizzlies                                               Houston Astros                 San Francisco Giants
Albuquerque Isotopes                                      Colorado Rockies             Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Springs Sky Sox                               Milwaukee Brewers         Colorado Rockies
Nashville Sounds                                             Oakland A's                      Milwaukee Brewers
Oklahoma City Redhawks                               Los Angeles Dodgers       Houston Astros

Note: Because minor league teams rarely have the mascot of the parent club anymore, these teams will not have to change their mascots.

Pacific Coast League Unchanged for 2015

AAA Team                                                                  Parent Club
El Paso Chihuahuas                                                    San Diego Padres
Iowa Cubs                                                                   Chicago Cubs
Las Vegas 51s                                                             New York Mets
Omaha Storm Chasers                                                 Kansas City Royals
Reno Aces                                                                   Arizona Diamondbacks
Round Rock Express                                                   Texas Rangers
Salt Lake Bees                                                             Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Tacoma Rainers                                                           Seattle Mariners

International League

AAA Team                                                                    Parent Club
Buffalo Bisons                                                               Toronto Blue Jays
Charlotte Knights                                                           Chicago White Sox
Columbus Clippers                                                        Cleveland Indians
Durham Bulls                                                                 Tampa Bay Rays
Gwinnett Braves                                                            Atlanta Braves
Indianapolis Indians                                                       Pittsburgh Pirates
Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs                                                 Philadelphia Phillies
Louisville Bats                                                               Cincinnati Reds
Norfolk Tides                                                                 Baltimore Orioles
Pawtucket Red Sox                                                        Boston Red Sox
Rochester Red Wings                                                     Minnesota Twins
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders                                New York Yankees
Syracuse Chiefs                                                              Washington Nationals
Toledo Mud Hens                                                           Detroit Tigers

Sources: Wikipedia, Sacramento River Cats facebook page, Oakland A's Facebook page

New Orleans Zephyrs                                                 Miami Marlins
Memphis Redbirds                                                      St. Louis Cardinals

209 Sports- Playoff Predictions

This year, I am writing this blog for two reasons.  First, I want to see what the high school football playoffs would look like if calpreps.com is correct in predicting on how teams will finish.  Second, the Section made some changes to how the playoffs will work this year, and I want to show the playoff process step-by-step.

Format process and who qualifies 

1) Like last year, there are two division groups, but the groups are changed.  This year, the main group is divisions I-VI (last year, it was divisions I-IV).  The other group is division VII (last year, it was divisions V and VI).

2) The main group will be every league except for CCAA and SMAL. 

3) Like last year, every league will have the top two teams as automatic qualifiers, except for the Delta League and Sierra Foothill League.  Those leagues are so strong that they each get a third automatic qualifier.

4) There are 28 at-large bids among the 25 leagues, and they are chosen based solely on wins; however, a team must win at least two league games to be eligible (there are a few schools who are predicted to have enough overall wins, but not enough league wins to qualify). In my model I had to skip a few steps for various reasons, so I admit it would not be 100% accurate. If there is a tie for the last teams here are the tiebreakers in order.
     A. Head-to-head (In my model, calpreps just gave the predicted record, not who would beat who,
          so it is nearly impossible to determine that.  Plus, teams in questions rarely play each other).
     B. The amount of all opponents wins. (I did not have enough time to calculate that, so I skipped
          that one.  There might be a team or two who would get in that did not in my model.)
     C. The amount of the defeated teams wins.  In other words, only the wins of the teams that the
          potential playoff teams would beat are used.  (That one had the combinations of problems of A
          and B).
     D. If all else fails, calpreps rankings would be the final factor.  (The last 3 teams had the same
          record and same ranking.  I used the opponents wins from those 3.  Amador (Sutter Creek) got
          in over Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) and Kimball (Tracy).

5) For division VII, the top 3 teams in each league qualify

Placing the teams in divisions I-VI

1) For the most part, the largest 16 schools by enrollment are in division I, next 16 largest are in division II, next 16 largest are in division III, next 8 largest are in division IV, next 8 are in division V, and the smallest 8 are in division VI, but there are two execptions.

       A. A team is not allowed to drop more than one division than what it plays in during league
            play.  For example, St. Mary's has an enrollment of 968.  That is small enough to play in
            division V.  However, the Rams play in the TCAL, which is a division I league.  Therefore,
            by rule, the lowest they can play is division II.
       B. A team that won a section championship last year must compete at that division or higher. 
            Le Grand has a low enough enrollment to compete at Division VI, but since the Bulldogs
            won the Division V championship last year, they must compete at the Division V level this
            year.  The rule will drop Amador to Division VI.

Seeding
Please go to the link for the seeding.  In my model, I will only use the number of wins, but will move teams for two reasons: 1) In order to prevent teams from the same league to play each other in the 1st round. 2) League winners get top priority, even though they are not guaranteed a home game.

If calpreps.com is correct, here is what the playoffs would look like: 209 schools are in bold
*=automatic qualifiers

Division I
(16) Edison Vikings (Stockton) SJAA 5-5* @ (1) Folsom Bulldogs SFL 10-0*
(9) Granite Bay Grizzlies SFL 6-4 @ (8) Pleasant Grove Eagles (Elk Grove) DL 7-3
(12) Lincoln Trojans (Stockton) TCAL 6-4 @ (5) Merced Bears CCC 7-3*
(13) Tokay Tigers (Lodi) TCAL 6-4 @ (4) Oak Ridge Trojans (El Dorado Hills) SFL 8-2*
(11) Turlock Bulldogs CCC 6-4 @ (6) Jesuit Marauders (Carmichael) DL 7-3*
(14) Napa Indians MEL 5-5* @ (3) Stagg Delta Kings (Stockton) SJAA 8-2*
(10) Franklin Wildcats (Elk Grove) DL 6-4 @ (7) Modesto Panthers MMC 7-3*
(15) Vintage Crushers (Napa) MEL 6-4 @ (2) Grant Pacers (Sacramento) DL 9-1*

Division II
(16) Beyer Patriots (Modesto) MMC 5-5 @ (1) Vacaville Bulldogs MEL 8-2*
(9) Burbank Titans (Sacramento) ML 6-4* @ (8) Del Oro Golden Eagles (Loomis) SFL 6-4*
(12) Ponderosa Bruins (Shingle Springs) CVC 6-4 @ (5) Rio Linda Knights TCC 8-2
(13) Gregori Jaguars (Modesto) MMC 6-4 @ (4) Elk Grove Thundering Herd DL 8-2*
(11) Wood Wildcats (Vacaville) MEL 6-4 @ (6) St. Mary's Rams (Stockton) TCAL 7-3
(14) Atwater Falcons CCC 5-5* @ (3) Downey Knights (Modesto) MMC 8-2*
(10) Rocklin Thunder SFL 6-4 @ (7) Tracy Bulldogs TCAL 7-3*
(15) Buhach Colony Thunder (Atwater) CCC 5-5 @ (2) Roseville Tigers CVC 8-2*

Division III
(16) Cosumnes Oaks Wolfpack (Elk Grove) CVC 5-5* @ (1) Yuba City Honkers TCC 9-1*
(9) Casa Roble Rams (Orangevale) CAL 7-3* @ (8) Pacheco Panthers (Los Banos) WAC 8-2*
(12) Benicia Panthers SCAC 6-4 @ (5) Patterson Tigers WAC 8-2*
(13) Central Valley Hawks (Ceres) WAC 7-3 @ (4) Manteca Buffaloes VOL 9-1*
(11) Oakdale Mustangs VOL 7-3 @ (6) Rosemont Wolverines (Sacramento) SVC 8-2*
(14) Antelope Titans CVC 6-4 @ (3) Vanden Vikings (Fairfield) SCAC 9-1*
(10) American Canyon Wolves SCAC 7-3* @ (7) Inderkum Tigers (Sacramento) TCC 8-2*
(15) River Valley Falcons (Yuba City) TCC 5-5 @ (2) Sacramento Dragons ML 9-1*

Division IV
(8) Dixon Rams GEL 6-4* @ (1) Central Catholic (Modesto) VOL 10-0*
(5) El Dorado Cougars (Placerville) SVC 8-2* @ (4) Chr. Bros. Falcons (Sacramento) (CAL) 8-2*
(6) Los Banos Tigers WAC 7-3 @ (3) Center Cougars (Antelope) PVL 8-2*
(7) Sierra Timberwolves (Manteca) VOL 6-4 @ (2) Placer Hillmen (Auburn) PVL 9-1*

Division V
(8) Marysville Indians GEL 7-3 @ (1) Hilmar Yellowjackets TVL 10-0*
(5) Calaveras Redskins (San Andreas) MLL 7-3* @ (4) Ripon Indians TVL 7-3*
(6) Colfax Falcons PVL 7-3 @ (3) Sonora Wildcats MLL 7-3*
(7) Escalon Cougars TVL 6-4 @ (2) Le Grand Bulldogs SL 10-0*

Division VI
(8) Golden Sierra Grizzlies (Garden Valley) SDL 6-4 @ (1) Capital Chr. Cougars (Sac.) GEL 10-0*
(5) Mariposa Grizzlies SL 8-2 @ (4) Rio Vista Rams SDL 8-2*
(6) Amador Buffaloes (Sutter Creek) MLL 5-5 @ (3) Bradshaw Chr. Pride (Sac.) SDL 8-2*
(7) Vacaville Christian Falcons SDL 7-3 @ (2) Ripon Christian Knights SL 9-1*

Note: Vallejo (6-4), Hughson (6-4), and Woodcreek (Roseville) (5-5) would be declared ineligible, because they are predicted to finish second to last in league, and therefore, we'd have to assume they would not get the 2 league wins.  If they do get at least 2 league wins, then they are eligible for playoffs.

Last 4 teams in the playoffs: Buhach Colony, River Valley, Beyer, Amador
1st 4 eligible teams out: Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) (ML), Kimball (Tracy) (VOL), Summerville (Tuolumne City) (MLL), Argonaut (Jackson) (MLL)

Division VII (all teams in this division are automatic)
(1) Woodland Christian Cardianls SMAL 9-1 would have a bye
(5) Foresthill Wildfires SMAL 6-4 @ (4) Millennium Falcons (Tracy) CCAA 6-4
(6) Cristo Rey Saints (Sacramento) SMAL 2-7 @ (3) Stone Ridge Chr. Knights (Merced) CCAA 6-4
(2) Brookside Christian Knights (Stockton) CCAA 8-2 would have a bye

Central Section Playoffs
There is one 209 team in the Central Section.  The playoff policy of the Central Section is that if you want to be in the playoffs, you're in.   The only time the section goes back on that word is if more than 16 teams in the division want to play, then they take the top-16 of those who sign in.  Usually only the top 8-12 choose to play.  I do not know why a team would not want to play in the playoffs, but they have their reasons.  For this model, we are only doing division 5, because it is the only one with a 209 team in it.  We will also assume that every team would want to be in the playoffs.  There are 18 teams in division 5 Central Section, so only the top-16 would make it.  I believe the seedings are determined by rankings.

Central Section Division V playoffs

(16) Bishop Broncos (HDL) (4-6) @ (1) Mendota Aztecs (West Sierra) (9-1)
(9) Immanuel Eagles (Reedley) (IND) (6-4) @ (8) Firebaugh Eagles (West Sierra) (6-4)
(12) Yosemite Badgers (Oakhurst) (2-8) (NSL) @ (5) Farmersville Aztecs (East Sierra) (9-1)
(13) Dos Palos Broncos (West Sierra) (2-9) @ (4) Shafter Generals (SSL) (7-3)
(11) Corcoran Panthers (East Sequoia) (4-6) @ (6) Sierra Chieftains (Tollhouse) (NSL) (5-5)
(14) Fowler Redcats (West Sequoia) (3-7) @ (3) Lindsay Cardinals (East Sequoia) (8-2)
(10) Woodlake Tigers (East Sequoia) (6-4) @ (7) Caruthers Blue Raiders (West Sequoia) (8-2)
(15) Parlier Panthers (West Sequoia) (5-5) @ (2) Kern Valley Broncs (Lake Isabella) (HDL) (9-1)