This year, I am writing this blog for two reasons. First, I want to see what the high school football playoffs would look like if calpreps.com is correct in predicting on how teams will finish. Second, the Section made some changes to how the playoffs will work this year, and I want to show the playoff process step-by-step.
Format process and who qualifies
1) Like last year, there are two division groups, but the groups are changed. This year, the main group is divisions I-VI (last year, it was divisions I-IV). The other group is division VII (last year, it was divisions V and VI).
2) The main group will be every league except for CCAA and SMAL.
3) Like last year, every league will have the top two teams as automatic qualifiers, except for the Delta League and Sierra Foothill League. Those leagues are so strong that they each get a third automatic qualifier.
4) There are 28 at-large bids among the 25 leagues, and they are chosen based solely on wins; however, a team must win at least two league games to be eligible (there are a few schools who are predicted to have enough overall wins, but not enough league wins to qualify). In my model I had to skip a few steps for various reasons, so I admit it would not be 100% accurate. If there is a tie for the last teams here are the tiebreakers in order.
A. Head-to-head (In my model, calpreps just gave the predicted record, not who would beat who,
so it is nearly impossible to determine that. Plus, teams in questions rarely play each other).
B. The amount of all opponents wins. (I did not have enough time to calculate that, so I skipped
that one. There might be a team or two who would get in that did not in my model.)
C. The amount of the defeated teams wins. In other words, only the wins of the teams that the
potential playoff teams would beat are used. (That one had the combinations of problems of A
and B).
D. If all else fails, calpreps rankings would be the final factor. (The last 3 teams had the same
record and same ranking. I used the opponents wins from those 3. Amador (Sutter Creek) got
in over Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) and Kimball (Tracy).
5) For division VII, the top 3 teams in each league qualify
Placing the teams in divisions I-VI
1) For the most part, the largest 16 schools by enrollment are in division I, next 16 largest are in division II, next 16 largest are in division III, next 8 largest are in division IV, next 8 are in division V, and the smallest 8 are in division VI, but there are two execptions.
A. A team is not allowed to drop more than one division than what it plays in during league
play. For example, St. Mary's has an enrollment of 968. That is small enough to play in
division V. However, the Rams play in the TCAL, which is a division I league. Therefore,
by rule, the lowest they can play is division II.
B. A team that won a section championship last year must compete at that division or higher.
Le Grand has a low enough enrollment to compete at Division VI, but since the Bulldogs
won the Division V championship last year, they must compete at the Division V level this
year. The rule will drop Amador to Division VI.
Seeding
Please go to the link for the seeding. In my model, I will only use the number of wins, but will move teams for two reasons: 1) In order to prevent teams from the same league to play each other in the 1st round. 2) League winners get top priority, even though they are not guaranteed a home game.
If calpreps.com is correct, here is what the playoffs would look like: 209 schools are in bold
*=automatic qualifiers
Division I
(16) Edison Vikings (Stockton) SJAA 5-5* @ (1) Folsom Bulldogs SFL 10-0*
(9) Granite Bay Grizzlies SFL 6-4 @ (8) Pleasant Grove Eagles (Elk Grove) DL 7-3
(12) Lincoln Trojans (Stockton) TCAL 6-4 @ (5) Merced Bears CCC 7-3*
(13) Tokay Tigers (Lodi) TCAL 6-4 @ (4) Oak Ridge Trojans (El Dorado Hills) SFL 8-2*
(11) Turlock Bulldogs CCC 6-4 @ (6) Jesuit Marauders (Carmichael) DL 7-3*
(14) Napa Indians MEL 5-5* @ (3) Stagg Delta Kings (Stockton) SJAA 8-2*
(10) Franklin Wildcats (Elk Grove) DL 6-4 @ (7) Modesto Panthers MMC 7-3*
(15) Vintage Crushers (Napa) MEL 6-4 @ (2) Grant Pacers (Sacramento) DL 9-1*
Division II
(16) Beyer Patriots (Modesto) MMC 5-5 @ (1) Vacaville Bulldogs MEL 8-2*
(9) Burbank Titans (Sacramento) ML 6-4* @ (8) Del Oro Golden Eagles (Loomis) SFL 6-4*
(12) Ponderosa Bruins (Shingle Springs) CVC 6-4 @ (5) Rio Linda Knights TCC 8-2
(13) Gregori Jaguars (Modesto) MMC 6-4 @ (4) Elk Grove Thundering Herd DL 8-2*
(11) Wood Wildcats (Vacaville) MEL 6-4 @ (6) St. Mary's Rams (Stockton) TCAL 7-3
(14) Atwater Falcons CCC 5-5* @ (3) Downey Knights (Modesto) MMC 8-2*
(10) Rocklin Thunder SFL 6-4 @ (7) Tracy Bulldogs TCAL 7-3*
(15) Buhach Colony Thunder (Atwater) CCC 5-5 @ (2) Roseville Tigers CVC 8-2*
Division III
(16) Cosumnes Oaks Wolfpack (Elk Grove) CVC 5-5* @ (1) Yuba City Honkers TCC 9-1*
(9) Casa Roble Rams (Orangevale) CAL 7-3* @ (8) Pacheco Panthers (Los Banos) WAC 8-2*
(12) Benicia Panthers SCAC 6-4 @ (5) Patterson Tigers WAC 8-2*
(13) Central Valley Hawks (Ceres) WAC 7-3 @ (4) Manteca Buffaloes VOL 9-1*
(11) Oakdale Mustangs VOL 7-3 @ (6) Rosemont Wolverines (Sacramento) SVC 8-2*
(14) Antelope Titans CVC 6-4 @ (3) Vanden Vikings (Fairfield) SCAC 9-1*
(10) American Canyon Wolves SCAC 7-3* @ (7) Inderkum Tigers (Sacramento) TCC 8-2*
(15) River Valley Falcons (Yuba City) TCC 5-5 @ (2) Sacramento Dragons ML 9-1*
Division IV
(8) Dixon Rams GEL 6-4* @ (1) Central Catholic (Modesto) VOL 10-0*
(5) El Dorado Cougars (Placerville) SVC 8-2* @ (4) Chr. Bros. Falcons (Sacramento) (CAL) 8-2*
(6) Los Banos Tigers WAC 7-3 @ (3) Center Cougars (Antelope) PVL 8-2*
(7) Sierra Timberwolves (Manteca) VOL 6-4 @ (2) Placer Hillmen (Auburn) PVL 9-1*
Division V
(8) Marysville Indians GEL 7-3 @ (1) Hilmar Yellowjackets TVL 10-0*
(5) Calaveras Redskins (San Andreas) MLL 7-3* @ (4) Ripon Indians TVL 7-3*
(6) Colfax Falcons PVL 7-3 @ (3) Sonora Wildcats MLL 7-3*
(7) Escalon Cougars TVL 6-4 @ (2) Le Grand Bulldogs SL 10-0*
Division VI
(8) Golden Sierra Grizzlies (Garden Valley) SDL 6-4 @ (1) Capital Chr. Cougars (Sac.) GEL 10-0*
(5) Mariposa Grizzlies SL 8-2 @ (4) Rio Vista Rams SDL 8-2*
(6) Amador Buffaloes (Sutter Creek) MLL 5-5 @ (3) Bradshaw Chr. Pride (Sac.) SDL 8-2*
(7) Vacaville Christian Falcons SDL 7-3 @ (2) Ripon Christian Knights SL 9-1*
Note: Vallejo (6-4), Hughson (6-4), and Woodcreek (Roseville) (5-5) would be declared ineligible, because they are predicted to finish second to last in league, and therefore, we'd have to assume they would not get the 2 league wins. If they do get at least 2 league wins, then they are eligible for playoffs.
Last 4 teams in the playoffs: Buhach Colony, River Valley, Beyer, Amador
1st 4 eligible teams out: Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) (ML), Kimball (Tracy) (VOL), Summerville (Tuolumne City) (MLL), Argonaut (Jackson) (MLL)
Division VII (all teams in this division are automatic)
(1) Woodland Christian Cardianls SMAL 9-1 would have a bye
(5) Foresthill Wildfires SMAL 6-4 @ (4) Millennium Falcons (Tracy) CCAA 6-4
(6) Cristo Rey Saints (Sacramento) SMAL 2-7 @ (3) Stone Ridge Chr. Knights (Merced) CCAA 6-4
(2) Brookside Christian Knights (Stockton) CCAA 8-2 would have a bye
Central Section Playoffs
There is one 209 team in the Central Section. The playoff policy of the Central Section is that if you want to be in the playoffs, you're in. The only time the section goes back on that word is if more than 16 teams in the division want to play, then they take the top-16 of those who sign in. Usually only the top 8-12 choose to play. I do not know why a team would not want to play in the playoffs, but they have their reasons. For this model, we are only doing division 5, because it is the only one with a 209 team in it. We will also assume that every team would want to be in the playoffs. There are 18 teams in division 5 Central Section, so only the top-16 would make it. I believe the seedings are determined by rankings.
Central Section Division V playoffs
(16) Bishop Broncos (HDL) (4-6) @ (1) Mendota Aztecs (West Sierra) (9-1)
(9) Immanuel Eagles (Reedley) (IND) (6-4) @ (8) Firebaugh Eagles (West Sierra) (6-4)
(12) Yosemite Badgers (Oakhurst) (2-8) (NSL) @ (5) Farmersville Aztecs (East Sierra) (9-1)
(13) Dos Palos Broncos (West Sierra) (2-9) @ (4) Shafter Generals (SSL) (7-3)
(11) Corcoran Panthers (East Sequoia) (4-6) @ (6) Sierra Chieftains (Tollhouse) (NSL) (5-5)
(14) Fowler Redcats (West Sequoia) (3-7) @ (3) Lindsay Cardinals (East Sequoia) (8-2)
(10) Woodlake Tigers (East Sequoia) (6-4) @ (7) Caruthers Blue Raiders (West Sequoia) (8-2)
(15) Parlier Panthers (West Sequoia) (5-5) @ (2) Kern Valley Broncs (Lake Isabella) (HDL) (9-1)
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