Thursday, September 5, 2013

If I had my way in making college football playoffs-Week 1 2013

If I had my way, the NCAA playoffs would have 12 teams (10 conference winners and 2 wildcards).  The two wildcards would be decided by the 2 highest teams rated in the BCS who did not win the conference. Why are conference winners so important in my opinion? It is because whether one thinks they can play with everyone else or not, they deserve to have a chance to prove it on the field.  There have been teams out there that were not just great because of the weak schedule, they were great despite the weak schedule, and the big boys were too afraid to schedule them.  The day is going to come when a team like Arkansas State will be one of the best teams, but not be given the chance because the Red Wolves play in the Sun Belt.  Plus, having only conference winners lowers chance of any bias out there.

Seeding the teams:  The top-4 seeds would get a bye in the first round.  The BCS rankings would be the top system used, then if anyone is ranked (or have votes) in the AP poll, finally any other system that ranks all 125 Division I-FBS teams will be used to decide the final seeds.  There are two exceptions: 1) No wildcard team may be in the top-4 unless it has a BETTER record than at least 7 conference winners, 2) teams of the same conference may not meet until the championship game.  I would drop the wildcard team a seed or two if necessary.

For the first half of the season, the model for the playoffs looks weird, because the sample size is small, and of the formula I use for the conference leader.  Until there are enough head-to-head match-ups, I use point differential for the leader (until the BCS rankings come out, then I use BCS rankings for tie-breakers).  Conference games take priority.  The ACC and SEC have had one game each, those winners are used as conference leaders.  Don't worry, I have done this for a few years, teams play themselves out to where the seeds are supposed to be as the season goes on, but again, it looks weird the first few weeks.

Here's what the model of week 1 looks like:

Conference Leaders
American Athletic- Houston (1-0)                      PAC-12- Oregon (1-0)
ACC- Florida St. (1-0, 1-0)                                 Sun Belt- Arkansas St. (1-0)
Big 10- Michigan (1-0)                                       SEC-Mississippi (1-0, 1-0)
Big 12- Baylor (1-0)                                          
Conference USA- Marshall (1-0)                        Wildcards
MAC- Bowling Green (1-0)                                Alabama (1-0)
Mountain West- Air Force (1-0)                         Ohio St. (1-0)

Tournament (all games except championship would be at higher seed)
1) Oregon
     Bye

9) Arkansas St.
8) Mississippi

12) Air Force
5) Ohio St.

4) Baylor
Bye

11) Houston
6) Alabama

3) Michigan
Bye

10) Marshall
7) Bowling Green

2) Florida St.
Bye

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