2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

It's that time again.  Most of us like to make predictions on the NCAA tournament.  My favorite part is to see where the upsets are going to be.  Here are my predictions.

Winner-Michigan St. Spartans

Final 4- Michigan St., Florida, Syracuse, Gonzaga

No number 1 seed has lost to a 16 seed, but if it happens this year it will be: Kansas. Nothing against the Jayhawks, but they got a bad matchup in this regard this year.  Western Kentucky is tournament experienced.  Last year, they battled through adversity to overcome a coach fired in the middle of a season to win the Sun Belt Conference tournament and go to the NCAA tournament.  This year, they won the tournament as a 6th seed (of 11).  They will be prepared for Kansas.  I think that all 1-seeds will advance again, but if one loses, it will be Kansas.

On a side note, many people think Gonzaga will lose, because of the conference it is in, low strength of schedule, it doesn't deserve a #1 seed, blah, blah, blah.  That is the most misguided (I'll be nice) opinion I have heard in college basketball.  I can guarantee that at least 95% of the people who said that have never seen them play.  Like a stat nerd in baseball, they think that numbers dictate who is good on the court and who is not.  This Gonzaga team is great despite their strength of schedule.  If "Washington" was across their chest and not "Gonzaga", people would demand that they be the overall #1 seed with their resume.  Anyway, Gonzaga is least likely #1 seed to go down in the first round, and here is why.  The six #2 seeds who have gone down to #15's have had poor shooting nights, some have overlooked their opponents, because they are not used to playing teams who play with the mentality of having nothing to lose.  Gonzaga is used to it.  They play in a league full of potential #16 seeds.  Gonzaga players are used to having that target on their backs.  They get everyone's best effort day in, and day out.  Many of its opponents play with the nothing-to-lose mentality.  They are prepared for a team like Southern and will not take them likely.

Here are some picks region-by-region:

Midwest
2nd round match-ups: (best one I think in bold)
(16) NCAT/LIB vs. (1) Louisville
(9) Missouri vs. (8) Colorado St.
(12) Oregon vs. (5) Oklahoma St.
(13) New Mexico St. vs. (4) St. Louis
(11) MTSU/STM vs. (6) Memphis
(14) Valparaiso vs. (3) Michigan St.
(10) Cincinnati vs. (7) Creighton
(15) Albany vs. (2) Duke

(with this one, I think the best match is in the "first 4" round between Middle Tennessee St. and St. Mary's). If I had to stay strict to 2nd round, I'll take Oregon-Oklahoma St.

Predicted winner from this region: Michigan St.

Upsets I have: Oregon over Oklahoma St.
                        St. Mary's over Memphis

Others I think are possible: Middle Tennessee St. over Memphis
                                            Valparaiso over Michigan St.
                                            Cincinnati over Creighton
(note: a 9-seed over an 8-seed is not considered to be an upset, but I have Missouri over Colorado St.)

If I had to pick a 6-seed or lower to win it all- Oregon (the Ducks are highly underseeded)

If I had to pick a 12-seed or lower to go to the final-4 (the record for the lowest seed ever to make it to the final-four is 11th)- Once again, Oregon

West
2nd round match-ups: (best one I think in bold)
(16) Southern vs. (1) Gonzaga
(9) Wichita St. vs. (8) Pittsburgh
(12) Mississippi vs. (5) Wisconsin
(13) Boise St/LaSalle vs. (4) Kansas St.
(11) Belmont vs. (6) Arizona
(14) Harvard vs. (3) New Mexico
(10) Iowa St. vs. (7) Notre Dame
(15) Iona vs. (2) Ohio St.

Predicted winner of this region: Gonzaga

Upsets I have: None (though I have Wichita St. over Pittsburgh)

Upsets I think are possible: La Salle over Kansas St.
                                            Belmont over Arizona
                                            Iowa St. over Notre Dame

If I had to pick a 6-seed or lower to win it all- Notre Dame

If I had to pick a 12-seed or lower to go to the final-four: La Salle

South
2nd round matchups (best one I think in bold)
(16) Western Kentucky vs. (1) Kansas
(9) Villanova vs. (8) North Carolina
(12) Akron vs. (5) VCU
(13) South Dakota St. vs. (4) Michigan
(11) Minnesota vs. (6) UCLA
(14) Northwestern St. vs. (3) Florida
(10) Oklahoma vs. (7) San Diego St.
(15) Florida Gulf Coast vs. (2) Georgetown

Predicted winner of this region: Florida

Upsets I have: Akron over VCU (counting on the winning streak of Akron)

Possible upsets: South Dakota St. over Michigan (SDSU beat New Mexico this year)
                          Minnesota over UCLA (UCLA can play down to its competition)
                          Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown (FGCU beat Miami this year)

6-seed or lower to win: UCLA (the Bruins can play up to the level of the competition sometimes, too)

12-seed or lower to final-4: Akron (again, big winning streak)

East
2nd round matchups (best one I think in bold)
(16) LIU/JMU vs. (1) Indiana
(9) Temple vs. (8) North Carolina St.
(12) California vs. (5) UNLV
(13) Montana vs. (4) Syracuse
(11) Bucknell vs. (6) Butler
(14) Davidson vs. (3) Marquette
(10) Colorado vs. (7) Illinois
(15) Pacific vs. (2) Miami (FL)

Predicted winner of this region: Syracuse

Upsets I have: Davidson over Marquette (I also have Temple over NC State)

Possible upsets: California over UNLV (Cal is underseeded, and the game is in San Jose)
                           Montana over Syracuse (CBS's Seth Davis is big on this one)

6-seed or lower to win: Butler (got to go with the team who was in the championship in back-to-back years recently)

12-seed or lower to go to final 4: California