Saturday, April 29, 2017
If I was King of Sports-NCAA style FIFA tournament
I want to see FIFA, head of the soccer governing body, have an NCAA-style tournament. For my model, every confederation would get an automatic bid (I gave OFC two, because of the injustice of them not even getting a full World Cup bid. I also would have one play-in game. Finally, I would not have teams in the same confederation play each other except for the 1 vs. 16 matches and when it could not otherwise be avoided.
Play-in game
Israel @ Montenegro
1st round Bracket I
(16) Tahiti (OFC) vs. (1) Brazil (COMNEBOL)
(9) Cameroon vs. (8) Netherlands
(12) Romania vs. (5) Peru
(13) Serbia vs. (4) Mexico (CONCACAF)
(11) Congo (DR) vs. (6) Slovakia
(14) Bulgaria vs.(3) Switzerland
(10) Greece vs. (7) Ecuador
(15) Panama vs. (2) Portugal
1st round Bracket IV
(16) Russia vs. (1) Chile
(9) Austria vs. (8) Bosnia & Herzegovnia
(12) Ghana vs. (5) Costa Rica
(13) Australia vs. (4) Wales
(11) Japan vs. (6) Iceland
(14) Morocco vs. (3) Italy
(10) Ukraine vs. (7) Iran (AFC)
(15) Uzbekistan vs. (2) Belgium
1st round Bracket II
(16) New Zealand (OFC) vs. (1) Argentina
(9) Burkina Faso vs. (8) Hungary
(12) Côte D'Ivoire vs. (5) Croatia
(13) Denmark vs. (4) Uruguay
(11) Tunisia vs. (6) United States
(14) Slovenia vs. (3) Spain
(10) Nigeria vs. (7) Northern Ireland
(15) Scotland vs. (2) Colombia
1st round Bracket III
(16) ISR/MNE vs. (1) Germany (UEFA)
(9) Sweden vs. (8) Senegal
(12) Czech Republic vs. (5) Egypt (CAF)
(13) Saudi Arabia vs. (4) England
(11) South Korea vs. (6) Turkey
(14) Algeri vs. (3) Poland
(10) Paraguay vs. (7) Ireland
(15) Venezuela vs. (2) France
Saturday, March 18, 2017
High school conference basketball tournaments
One of my coworkers presented me with the idea of conference basketball tournaments for the Sac-Joaquin section. Apparently they have them in other sections. In his model only the top 6 teams in each league would go. The third seed would play the sixth seed in each league while the fourth would play the fifth, with the top two teams receiving a bye. In the semifinals the lowest remaining seed would play the top team, and the second place team would play the highest remaining seed. For each league I selected where I thought the tournament should be played.
Here are the leagues in alphabetical order (Note: I only did the 209 teams this year.)
Central California Athletic Alliance (CCAA) @ Lincoln High School-Stockton
Byes: (1) Jim Elliot Christian Eagles and (2) Brookside Christian Knights
(6) Big Valley Lions vs. (3) Millennium Falcons
(5) Venture Academy Mustangs vs. (4) Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage Rams
Teams who would not qualify: Turlock Christian, Stone Ridge Christian
Central California Comference (CCC) @ Stanislaus State University-Turlock
Byes: (1) Merced Bears and (2) El Capitan Gauchos
(6) Atwater Falcons vs. (3) Golden Valley Cougars
(5) Pitman Pride vs. (4) Turlock Bulldogs
Team who would not qualify: Buhach Colony
Modesto Metro Conference (MMC) @ Modesto Junior College
Byes: (1) Modesto Christian Crusaders and (2) Beyer Patriots
(6) Enochs Eagles vs. (3) Modesto Panthers
(5) Downey Knights vs. (4) Gregori Jaguars
Teams who would not qualify: Davis, Johansen
Mother Lode League (MLL) @ Columbia College-Sonora
Byes: (1) Calaveras, (2) Sonora Wildcats
(6) Amador Buffaloes vs. (3) Argonaut Mustangs
(5) Bret Harte Bullfrogs vs. (4) Summerville Bears
Team who would not qualify: Linden
Mountain Valley League (MVL) @ Chavez High School-Stockton
Byes: (1) Hughes Academy Titans and (2) Delta Charter Dragons
(6) Holt Academy Bobcats vs. (3) Stockton Christian Eagles
(5) Tioga Timberwolves vs. (4) Lodi Academy Titans
Teams who would not qualify: Humphreys Charter, Don Pedro, Mountan Oaks
San Joaquin Athletic Association (SJAA) @ University of the Pacific-Stockton
Byes: (1) Stagg Delta Kings and (2) Edison Vikings
(6) Bear Creek Bruins vs. (3) Franklin Yellowjackets
(5) McNair Eagles vs. (4) Chavez Titans
Southern League (SL) @ Enochs High School-Modesto
Byes: (1) Orestimba Warriors and (2) Mariposa Grizzlies
(6) Gustine Reds vs. (3) Delhi Hawks
(5) Waterford Wildcats vs. (4) Denair Coyotes
Team who would not qualify: LeGrand
Trans Valley League (TVL) @ Modesto High School
Byes: (1) Ripon Indians and (2) Hilmar Yellowjackets
(6) Hughson Huskies vs. (3) Riverbank Bruins
(5) Mountain House Mustangs vs. (4) Ripon Christian Knights
Team who would not qualify: Escalon
Tri-City Athletic Conference (TCAL) @ Stockton Arena
Byes: (1) St. Mary's Rams and (2) Lincoln Trojans
(6) Lodi Flames vs. (3) West Wolfpack
(5) Tokay Tigers vs. (4) Tracy Bulldogs
Valley Oak League (VOL) @ Delta College-Stockton
Byes: (1) Manteca Buffaloes and (2) Cemtral Catholic Raiders
(6) Sierra Timberwolves vs. (3) Weston Ranch Cougars
(5) East Union Lancers vs. (4) Lathrop Spartans
Teams who would not qualify: Kimball, Oakdale
Western Athletic Conference (WAC) @ Merced College
Byes: (1) Patterson Tigers and (2) Ceres Bulldogs
(6) Pacheco Panthers vs. (3) Central Valley Hawks
(5) Los Banos Tigers vs. (4) Livingston Wolves
Thursday, March 9, 2017
If I Was King of Sports- What the 209 basketball tournament would look like
Quick reminder, for the top 64 teams, the tournament would be broken up in two parts 1) 8 pods of 8 teams at campus sites and 2) playing at neutral sites, depending on which place each team finished in its pod. There will also be two pods where the remaining 16 will play 3 games each. One thing I would change is that I would put in a play-in game between the 64th and 65th rated teams. The winner would be in the main field. The loser of the game would host a consolation pod.
Play-in game
Pacheco Panthers (WAC) @ Galt Warriors (SVC)
Pod A @ Jim Elliot Christian (Lodi)
(8) PAC/GALT winner vs. (1) Jim Elliot Christian (CCAA)
(5) Chavez (SJAA) vs. (4) Lathrop (VOL)
(6) Riverbank (TVL) vs. (3) Stockton Christian (MVL)
(7) Central Valley (WAC) vs. (2) West (TCAL)
Pod H @ Hughes Academy (Stockton)
(8) Turlock (CCC) vs. (1) Hughes Academy (MVL)
(5) Mountain House (TVL) vs. (4) Edison (SJAA)
(6) Big Valley (CCAA) vs. (3) Lincoln (TCAL)
(7) Bret Harte (MLL) @ (2) Modesto Christian (MMC)
Pod E @ Calaveras (San Andreas)
(8) Delhi (SL) vs. (1) Calaveras (MLL)
(5) Hughson (TVL) vs. (4) Ceres (WAC)
(6) Buhach Colony (CCC) vs. (3) Dos Palos (WSL)
(7) Tioga (MVL) vs. (2) Liberty Ranch (SVC)
Pod D @ Argonaut (Jackson)
(8) Downey (MMC) vs. (1) Argonaut (MLL)
(5) Lodi Academy (MVL) vs. (4) El Capitan (CCC)
(6) Venture Academy (CCAA) vs. (3) Weston Ranch (VOL)
(7) Tokay (TCAL) vs. Stagg (SJAA)
Pod F @ Manteca
(8) Los Banos (WAC) vs. (1) Manteca (VOL)
(5) Pitman (CCC) vs. (4) Tracy (TCAL)
(6) Delta Charter (MVL) vs. (3) Sonora (MLL)
(7) Franklin (SJAA) vs. (2) Orestimba (SL)
Pod C @ Beyer-Modesto
(8) Linden (MLL) vs. (1) Beyer (MMC)
(5) Sierra (VOL) vs. (4) Ripon Christian (TVL)
(6) Atwater (CCC) vs. (3) Mariposa (SL)
(7) Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage (CCAA) vs. (2) St. Mary's (TCAL)
Pod G @ Ripon
(8) Summerville (MLL) vs. (1) Ripon (TVL)
(5) Gregori (MMC) vs. (4) East Union (VOL)
Friday, December 23, 2016
What the Old Style Playoffs Might Have looked like
I know it is late. High school football season is complete. However, a friend mentioned to me how the playoffs in the Sac-Joaquin Section used to work. That got me wondering how the playoffs might have looked if the old style was still used. In the old style, the league the team was in alone determined which division it played under. Neither enrollment nor continued success played any part. The amount of spots a league had in the playoffs depended on how many leagues were in that division. Since nearly all divisions had 8-team brackets, if there were 4 leagues in the division, then each one had two teams. If it was a three-league division, then two leagues would have 3 teams and the third had two. Leagues rotated for the two teams. For the leagues that had two teams, each team had a first round home game.
It is impossible to tell for sure what it would have looked like, because we don't know whose turn it would have been to have only two teams. For this model, I looked at the third place teams in all the respective leagues, and the strongest two got in the playoffs in my model with one exception. That would be in division V. The reasoning behind it is that in the real playoffs, both the MLL and TVL got extra spots, while the GEL did not.
Another factor in this model is the MMC, CCC, and SJAA are in lower divisions for enrollment-based sports. In league-based playoffs, they are still in division I. It is the same thing with the TCC. In enrollment-based playoffs, it is in divsion IV, but in league-based, it is in division II. Finally, two matchups happened in real life, though one was in a different Division than in my model.
Here is my model for each division.
*= host
D1 South (4 leagues, 2 bids each)
TCAL 1*- St. Mary's
MMC 2- Beyer
SJAA 1*- Stagg
CCC 2- Pitman
CCC 1*- Turlock
TCAL 2- Tracy
MMC 1*- Downey
SJAA 2- McNair
D1 North (3 leagues, 3 bids for DL and SFL, 2 bids for MEL)
SFL 1*- Folsom
DL 3- Davis
MEL 2*- Vacaville
DL 2- Jesuit
DL 1*- Elk Grove
SFL 2- Oak Ridge
MEL 1*- Napa
SFL 3- Del Oro
Note: In the old style, the North winner would play the South winner for the overall Division I championship.
D2 (8 teams, 3 leagues. CVC and SCAC get 3 teams each. ML gets 2 teams)
CVC 1*- Antelope
SCAC 3- Vanden
ML 2*- Burbank
SCAC 2- Benicia
SCAC 1*- American Canyon
CVC 2- Roseville
ML 1*- Sacramento
CVC 3- Cosumnes Oaks
D3 (8 teams, 3 leagues. VOL and TCC get 3 teams each. CAL gets 2 teams).
VOL 1*- Oakdale
TCC 3- River City
CAL 2*- Vista del Lago
TCC 2- Yuba City
TCC 1*- Inderkum
VOL 2- Central Catholic
CAL 1*- Christian Brothers
VOL 3- Manteca
D4 (8 teams, 3 leagues. PVL and SVC get 3 teams each. WAC gets 2)
PVL 1*- Lincoln (L)
SVC 3- El Dorado
WAC 2*- Los Banos
SVC 2- Liberty Ranch
SVC 1*- Cordova
PVL 2- Placer
WAC 1*- Central Valley
PVL 3- Center
D5 (8 teams, 3 leagues. MLL and TVL get 3 teams each, GEL gets 2 teams)
MLL 1*- Sonora
TVL 3- Modesto Christian
GEL 2*- Marysville
TVL 2- Ripon
GEL 1*- Capital Christian
MLL 3- Calaveras
TVL 1*- Hilmar
MLL 2- Amador
D6 (2 leagues, 6 teams. Each league gets 3 teams)
SDL 1- Bradshaw Christian
Bye
SL 2*- Delhi
SDL 3- Golden Sierra
SL 1- Orestimba
Bye
SDL 2*- Rio Vista
SL 3- Gustine
D7 Currently uses the old system
CCAA 2 Brookside Christian @ SMAL 1 Woodland Christian
SMAL 2 Delta @ CCAA 1 Stone Ridge Christian
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Former VOL vs. Current VOL 2016
One thing I would like to see is a former VOL vs. Current VOL challenge in basketball. For this project, I have a model of what it might look like for the major sports and water polo based on rankings. To my knowledge, here is the list of former VOL members. I am not sure about Riverbank, but I put them on the list anyway.
List of Former VOL Teams
Bear Creek Bruins (Stockton)
Buhach Colony Thunder (Atwater)
Central Valley Hawks (Ceres)
Ceres Bulldogs
Downey Knights (Modesto)
Livingston Wolves
Los Banos Tigers
Modesto Panthers
Pitman Pride (Turlock)
Riverbank Bruins (I think)
Sonora Wildcats
Tracy Bulldogs
West Wolfpack (Tracy)
Here would be my list of games.
Former VOL vs. Current VOL
Football
Sonora vs. Oakdale
Pitman vs. Central Catholic
Tracy vs. Manteca
Downey vs. East Union
Buhach Colony vs. Sierra
Central Valley vs. Lathrop
Los Banos vs. Weston Ranch
Modesto vs. Kimball
Volleyball
Pitman vs. Oakdale
Tracy vs. Kimball
Sonora vs. Central Catholic
Buhach Colony vs. Manteca
West vs. East Union
Los Banos vs. Lathrop
Modesto vs. Weston Ranch
Bear Creek vs. Sierra
Boy’s Water Polo
Downey vs. Sonora
Livingston vs. Ripon
Bear Creek vs. Bret Harte
Tracy vs. Oakdale
Ceres vs. Calaveras
Los Banos vs. Kimball
Pitman vs. Central Catholic
Girl's Water Polo
Downey vs. Oakdale
Buhach Colony vs. Kimball
Bear Creek vs. Sonora
Los Banos vs. Ripon
Ceres vs. Bret Harte
West vs. Calaveras
Modesto vs. Central Catholic
Boy’s Basketball
West vs. Weston Ranch
Pitman vs. Manteca
Sonora vs. Sierra
Modesto vs. Central Catholic
Central Valley vs. East Union
Riverbank vs. Lathrop
Bear Creek vs. Kimball
Downey vs. Oakdale
Girl's Basketball
Sonora vs. Central Catholic
Pitman vs. East Union
Livingston vs. Lathrop
Bear Creek vs. Oakdale
Central Valley vs. Kimball
Tracy vs. Weston Ranch
Buhach Colony vs. Sierra
Downey vs. Manteca
Baseball
Tracy vs. Manteca
Los Banos vs. Oakdale
Bear Creek vs. Central Catholic
Pitman vs. Sierra
Buhach Colony vs. East Union
Livingston vs. Weston Ranch
Ceres vs. Kimball
Central Valley vs. Lathrop
Softball
Tracy vs. Oakdale
Ceres vs. East Union
West vs. Sierra
Los Banos vs. Manteca
Riverbank vs. Central Catholic
Bear Creek vs. Kimball
Downey vs. Weston Ranch
Pitman vs. Lathrop
Ideally the basketball thing would be an annual event, and I would have each school participate at least once before I have any repeats. Of course if this event happened in real life, I would make matchups that could sell the most tickets. I would have Sonora vs. Oakdale, Bear Creek vs. Weston Ranch, West vs. Kimball, and Tracy vs. Lathrop.
Sunday, September 25, 2016
Strange Realignment Moves That Should Happen
With realignment talks coming in December for the Sac-Joaquin Section, there are going to be a lot of proposals, arguments, rumors, and articles about the subject. Some moves will be simple, like splitting up the Modesto schools in different leagues. There may be some odd proposals, too. There was one suggestion last realignment cycle that would have sent Summerville High School to the Southern League. That means all the Bears teams would have had to travel as far as Gustine. With that in mind, there are five moves I have in mind that may be strange, but I think the section should consider.
Riverbank to the Mother Lode League
This move would seem strange because of geography. However, geography is only number three on the priority list. The top two are near even enrollments and competitive equity. Riverbank’s enrollment is near 700, which is around the same as many of the other Mother Lode League (MLL) teams. Competitively, a couple of games would be winnable for Riverbank in football, and in basketball, Riverbank vs. Calaveras would be an interesting matchup. Finally, Riverbank schedules a lot of MLL teams in non - league play in many sports. Riverbank shares enough success that though it seems strange, Riverbank to the MLL does make sense.
2) Sheldon to the Tri-City Athletic League
There are two reasons why this move would seem strange. First, Sheldon is in Sacramento, so that would be a fourth city in the league. Second, Sheldon is a team in the north half of the section, and the Tri-City Athletic League (TCAL) is a south league. (Note: The Sacramento- San Joaquin County line is generally accepted as the border between North and South.) It is rare that the section would even consider mixing North and South teams in the same league, though it has been done before.
Sheldon should be considered for the TCAL for competitive equity. Football is the catalyst for league changes, and Sheldon cannot compete in its current league (Delta League) in football. Sheldon has not had a league win since 2013, and had not been to the playoffs since 2011; and playoff appearances are few and far between for the Huskies. The school would be more competitive in the TCAL. There would be some winnable games for Sheldon, and it might even be able to make the playoffs. Sheldon’s big sport is basketball. With it and St. Mary's in the same league, the TCAL can have a championship - quality matchup in league play twice a year. With these facts, it is my opinion that Sheldon would make an excellent addition to the TCAL.
3) Lee Vining to the Mountain Valley League
Can someone tell me why Lee Vining is in the Southern Section? I truly have no idea. The Vikings have to travel three and a half hours to their closest league opponent and over six hours to their farthest one. A move to the Sac-Joaquin Section can help the school save some money, and maybe be able to add a sport or two in the future.
Lee Vining is the most isolated School in the state of California, and one of the most isolated Schools in the nation. It is around an hour and a half drive to the closest school. As bad as its situation is, Lee Vining can improve the situation by moving to the Sac-Joaquin Section. Currently there are two schools in Lee Vining league that are further than the furthest school from it in the MVL.
I know the teams in the Mountain Valley League will resist the move. A lot of these teams do not have a lot of money for athletics, and they would be asked to make a three-hour trip per sport to add Lee Vining to the league. However, this is a move that needs to get done one way or another. A six-hour bus ride should not have to happen until playoffs.
4) The CCAA and SMAL should become 8-man football leagues
The Sac-Joaquin Section is the only multi-league section in California without at least one 8-man football team. There was an 8-man football team in the past. Modesto Christian has won some state championships as an 8-man team.
The Sac-Joaquin Section needs to bring 8-man football back. Over the past five years, Woodland Poly and Jim Elliot Christian had to drop football, because they could not field enough players to form a team. With 8-man football, schools do not need a lot of players to get a team. Who knows, maybe more small schools could add football with 8-man teams.
5) Have one league full of private school powerhouses
A lot of fans think it is unfair that schools like St. Mary's and Central Catholic have an unfair advantage, because those schools “get to choose which players they want” whereas the public schools in their respective leagues are limited to who is in their zip code. Those fans have called for an all-private school league. There already is one, the Central California Athletic Association (CCAA). However, many of those private schools are not athletic powers. The other problem that is presented us that there are not enough teams on either side of the Sacramento- San Joaquin County line to support a league of powerhouse private schools.
There is a solution, however. This is one league that teams in the north and south can be in the same league. From the south, I would take Central Catholic (Modesto), Modesto Christian, Ripon Christian, St. Mary's (Stockton), and maybe Brookside Christian (Stockton). Capital Christian (Sacramento), Christian Brothers (Sacramento), Jesuit (Carmichael), and Sacramento would represent the north. Since Sacramento is a charter school, and charter schools have more options of where they can get students, they would be grouped as “private” schools. Each one of those schools has at least one sport in that it is really strong. In addition, each school is a powerhouse in basketball; this league would jump to the best in the Sac-Joaquin Section, and possible top-five in Northern California. The Central Coast Section has an all-private school league, and it is one of the best in the state. This league can match its power if it is created.
Sunday, July 31, 2016
My realignment predictions
Every four years, the Sac-Joaquin Section realigns its teams based on enrollments, competitive equity, and geography. I started thinking on what the realignment in the 209 might look like. The first meeting to determine it will be in December. I wanted to complete this project before I saw the opinions of the Modesto Bee and other newspapers, but I was not able to complete it. In one way, that was good, because they convinced me of one change that might happen.
The first thing the section will probably do is to decide if they want to expand or contract any leagues. In the last realignment the Delta River and Delta Valley Leagues in the Sacramento area contracted into one league. I don't think there will be any move like that this time around, but one sports writer disagrees with me. We will see.
For this blog, I will make realignment predictions for most of the leagues, except for the Mountain Valley League, because I do not think there will be any changes to that league. For each league, I will give the current alignment, my predicted future alignment, and a possible “curve ball”. After seeing what the section proposed last year, the committee made some suggestions that did not make sense to a lot of people (Lathrop and Weston Ranch in the WAC?)
Note: For the “curve balls”, I am not giving consideration on how it might affect other leagues.
Current Division I Leagues
Central California Conference (CCC)
Current: Atwater, Buhach Colony, El Capitan, Golden Valley, Merced, Pitman, Turlock
My prediction: Atwater, Buhach Colony, El Capitan, Golden Valley, Merced, Patterson
Possible curve ball: League stays the same as it is now.
Notes: I originally had the league staying the same until I read what The Modesto Bee had to say on the subject, and what they said about Pitman and Turlock leaving (I’ll get to that later) makes more sense than what I had. Due to that, I needed to put a sixth team in the league, because it is unlikely that the section will have a large-school league with fewer than six teams. I picked Patterson in my model, because it is the largest school by enrollment that could be moved. If my prediction is correct, then the CCC will likely drop to division II, which means that Oakdale could see some of these schools in the playoffs in football.
Modesto Metro Conference (MMC)
Current: Beyer, Davis, Downey, Enochs, Gregori, Johansen, Modesto, Modesto Christian (basketball only)
My prediction: Beyer, Downey, Enochs, Gregori, Modesto, Pitman, Turlock, Modesto Christian (basketball only)
Possible Curveball: Beyer, Downey, Enochs, Gregori, Modesto, Modesto Christian (basketball only), and either Central Catholic, Oakdale, Patterson, or two out of the three.
Notes: The Modesto Bee convinced me that Pitman and Turlock will be joining this league. It will probably be the league of the largest schools in the Modesto-area. We did have one difference. They have Beyer leaving, along with Davis and Johansen. I think Beyer stays. If the enrollment drops as low as I have been hearing, then I think Beyer will go to the Valley Oak League. For now, I have Beyer staying put. The alignment I put as the “curveball” is the one I originally had before I read other articles on the subject.
San Joaquin Athletic Association (SJAA)
Current: Bear Creek, Chavez, Edison, Franklin, McNair, Stagg
My prediction: No changes
Possible curveball: Chavez, Edison, Franklin, Lincoln, St. Mary's, Stagg
Notes
There is not a lot to change here, unless the section is going to make changes for the sake of changes, which is unlikely. One other possible change I can see is having Lincoln join the SJAA and Stagg leaving for the TCAL. However, I think it's likely we will see no change.
Tri-City Athletic League (TCAL)
Current: Lincoln, Lodi, St. Mary's, Tokay, Tracy, West
My Prediction: Kimball, Lincoln, Lodi, St. Mary's, Tokay, Tracy, West
Possible Curveball: Bear Creek, Kimball, Lodi, McNair, Tokay, Tracy, West
Notes
Again, there is not a lot of change here. The one exception is that Kimball will probably be large enough to join the other Tracy schools.
I put Bear Creek and McNair as part of the curve ball, because though they are Stockton schools, they are in the Lodi School District. Perhaps all the high schools in the district could be in the same league.
I will throw a giant curveball here. Perhaps Sheldon of Sacramento might join the league. I really don't think there is any chance of that happening, but they struggle in football, and no move in the Sacramento area is going to change that. I don't think that the section would really mix in north and south teams in a league as a full member, but it actually was once considered. (Around ten years ago, the section considered Galt and Liberty Ranch to join the Valley Oak League.)
Current Division III League
Valley Oak League (VOL)
Current: Central Catholic, East Union, Kimball, Lathrop, Manteca, Oakdale, Sierra, Weston Ranch
My Prediction: Central Catholic, East Union, Lathrop, Manteca, Oakdale, Sierra, Weston Ranch
Possible Curveball: Beyer, Central Catholic, Manteca, Modesto Christian, Oakdale, St. Mary's, Sierra, Weston Ranch
Notes
For my actual prediction, there is not a lot to change. Kimball should be with all the Tracy schools. Another possibility is if Beyer is going to have a low enrollment, then it should go to the VOL. As for the curveball, what if the Section wants to create a super conference like the two it has up north? The VOL is a great league to make it happen. There are already state champions and other powers in football and basketball in the league. Beyer and Modesto Christian would add firepower to basketball, and St. Mary's would add it to football. I do think that no matter what happens, the VOL will move up to a division II league because of all the success.
Current Division IV League
Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Current: Central Valley, Ceres, Livingston, Los Banos, Pacheco, Patterson
My prediction: Central Valley, Ceres, Davis, Johansen, Livingston, Mountain House, Pacheco
Possible curveball: Central Valley joins Patterson in leaving the WAC, but I do not have a destination in mind for the Hawks.
Notes
Most writers and fans agree that there will be some changes in this league. Everyone I have either talked to or read from says that Davis and Johansen will be in this league. Mountain House plays as a “wildcard” here. The enrollment is low, and until the town grows and the high school is large enough for it to join the TCAL, the Mustangs need to be somewhere. I think it will progressively move toward the TCAL, which means that the next stop is the WAC.
Current Division V leagues
Mother Lode League (MLL)
Current: Amador, Argonaut, Bret Harte, Calaveras, Linden, Sonora, Summerville
My prediction: Amador, Argonaut, Bret Harte, Calaveras, Linden, Riverbank, Summerville
Possible curveball: Same alignment as my prediction, except Calaveras leaves and Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage joins
Notes
Sonora has proven to be too good in football to stay in this league. I know Riverbank is a curveball geographically, but some games in football would be winnable for them, and Riverbank vs. Calaveras would make a good match-up in basketball.
Trans Valley League (TVL)
Current: Escalon, Hilmar, Hughson, Modesto Christian (non-basketball), Mountain House, Ripon, Riverbank (non-football), Ripon Christian (basketball only)
My prediction: Escalon, Hilmar, Hughson, Modesto Christian (non-basketball), Orestimba, Ripon, Sonora
Possible curveball: Calaveras, Escalon, Hilmar, Hughson, MC (non-basketball), Orestimba, Ripon, Sonora
Notes
In reality, there are not many changes that need to be made. Sonora should be added, because the football and volleyball teams are too talented for the MLL. The addition of Calaveras isn’t as crucial, therefore it will likely stay in the MLL. However, the enrollment is comparable to those of the TVL schools. How large will that have to be before they are forced to join the TVL?
Current Division VI League
Southern League (SL)
Current: Delhi, Denair, Gustine, LeGrand, Mariposa, Orestimba, Ripon Christian (non-basketball), Waterford
My prediction: Same teams except for Orestimba.
Possible curveball/notes: Depending on how events occur, I can see Modesto Christian coming back for all sports except for basketball. I can also see Big Valley joining the league.
Division VII Leagues
Notes on the CCAA and MVL. The only possible change I see is perhaps Jim Elliot Christian going to the MVL to be in the same league as Lodi Academy, especially if the Eagles are no longer going to have football. On that subject, the CCAA should be an 8-man football league. That would make it easier for those schools to have football, and perhaps some MVL schools could have football. I will throw a curveball for the MVL. How about Lee Vining joining the league? Does someone know why it is in the Southern Section anyway. Geographically it is north of some Sac-Joaquin Section schools. The farthest school from it in the MVL is closer than some of the schools in the league It’s in now. I know the MVL would reject the idea due to travel, but it is a move the Section should consider.
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