I really think college baseball needs a NIT tournament. There are always a few teams that deserve to have some kind of postseason. As always, if I had my way, the my postseason tournament would be based from the records only. In my vision, I would take every team that had a better record than the at-large team with the worst record (I call that the "target team"). Usually there are 50-60 teams that fit the category. This year, there are only 33. The committee did a better job in that respect.
This year, my tournament consists of six regions of six teams each. The winners would have played in a six-team championship series. (Note: Once again, the remaining three spots would be filled by Division II teams that did not make its college world series.)
Target team: Wake Forest (34-25)
Region 1- Kent St. Regional (Kent, OH)
(6) West Virginia St. (32-15)* vs. (1) Kent St. (44-14)
(4) California (33-21) vs. (3) Michigan (36-21)
(5) Austin Peay (34-23) vs. (2) Missouri St. (38-21)
Region 6- VCU Regional (Richmond, VA)
(6) Norfolk St. (29-21) vs. (1) VCU (38-19)
(4) Marshall (34-21) vs. (3) West Virginia (36-22)
(5) Delaware (32-22) vs. (2) UNC-Greensboro (38-21)
Region 4- Hartford Regional (Hartford, CT)
(6) Northwestern St. (33-24) vs. (1) Hartford (37-18)
(4) Jacksonville (33-22) vs. (3) Fresno St. (36-22)
(5) Jacksonville St. (34-24) vs. (2) Seton Hall (38-20)
Region 3- BYU Regional (Provo, UT)
(6) California Baptist (42-13)* vs. (1) BYU (37-17)
(4) Nevada (37-24) vs. (3) Seattle (37-21)
(5) Northridge St. (33-22) vs. (2) Oregon St. (35-19)
Region 5- North Florida Regional (Jacksonville, FL)
(6) Bradley (29-21) vs. (1) North Florida (39-19)
(4) Georgia Southern (36-24) vs. (3) Mercer (38-23)
(5) Florida A&M (31-21) vs. (2) Gardner-Webb (37-21)
Region 2- Creighton Regional (Omaha, NE)
(6) Arkansas-Monticello (40-16) vs. (1) Creighton (38-17)
(4) Houston (36-23) vs. (3) Indiana St. (35-21)
(5) New Mexico St. (34-23) vs. (2) Lamar (35-19)
Monday, May 30, 2016
Sunday, May 29, 2016
Next Lacrosse program
Lacrosse is growing in popularity all over the United States. Ten years ago, Major League Lacrosse put two teams in California, and they remained until a year after the economy crashed in 2008. Though there are no longer any professional teams in California for the sport, it is increasing in popularity among the high schools. There are many teams in the Los Angeles area, Bay Area, and a few teams in the Sacramento area. However, the sport is not as successful in the 209. Currently, there are only two programs in this area with lacrosse teams, St. Mary's and Lincoln. I believe that slowly more high schools will get teams. I think that eventually every division I school in the area and a few smaller schools will have the sport. Which school will be next? Here is a list of five candidates I think have the best chance of being the next school.
(Teams will be listed in alphabetical order)
Bear Creek Bruins (Stockton)
Why? When things spread, they often go to the closest thing geographically. In this case, Bear Creek is the closest school to Lincoln.
Why not? Though Bear Creek is the closest geographically to Lincoln, it plays in a different league.
2. Golden Valley Cougars (Merced)
Why?: UC-Merced has a team on the club level. I don't know if the Golden Bobcats would want to have a varsity program; but either way, Golden Valley could serve as a feeder program for the university.
Why not?: Golden Valley is so far away from the other teams. The two Stockton schools are the closest opponents to Golden Valley, and they are more than an hour drive away.
3. Lodi Flames
Why?: It is the closest division I school to Sacramento. In addition, it plays in the same league as Lincoln and St. Mary's.
Why not?: Honestly, I cannot think of anything of substance to answer this question. There are other programs that seem more suitable than Lodi, but I have no evidence to support that statement.
4. Ripon Christian Knights
Why?: Ripon Christian is the only school under 1,000 I think has a shot. Why? Currently the Knights have fewer spring sports than other schools. They don't have a track team, and they got rid of boy’s volleyball a few years ago. Lacrosse would allow extra training for the football, and more important to them, basketball players.
Why not?: Size. Since the school has around 175 students, it would need a large percentage of students not already playing a sport to play lacrosse. That is not likely.
5. Tracy Bulldogs
Why?: Though Mountain House is the closest school to the Bay Area, it is still too small right now. The next closest town is Tracy. Out of the three public Tracy high schools, Tracy High has had the most athletic success. Plus, it is in the same league as Lincoln and St. Mary's.
Why not?: West and Kimball are closer to the Bay Area, and that may increase the chances of one of those two schools of getting the program.
Order of likelihood of lacrosse actually happening in my opinion:
Tracy 2) Lodi 3) Bear Creek 4) Ripon Christian 5) Golden Valley
Bonus Information:
Next 5 Schools I think have a chance to be the next program
6. West (Tracy) 7. Tokay (Lodi) 8. McNair (Stockton) 9. Gregori (Modesto) 10. Enochs (Modesto)
In reality, I think the sport will get bigger in the Sacramento - area before it makes its way South. The next school in the entire Sac-Joaquin Section that gets it will be Folsom
(Teams will be listed in alphabetical order)
Bear Creek Bruins (Stockton)
Why? When things spread, they often go to the closest thing geographically. In this case, Bear Creek is the closest school to Lincoln.
Why not? Though Bear Creek is the closest geographically to Lincoln, it plays in a different league.
2. Golden Valley Cougars (Merced)
Why?: UC-Merced has a team on the club level. I don't know if the Golden Bobcats would want to have a varsity program; but either way, Golden Valley could serve as a feeder program for the university.
Why not?: Golden Valley is so far away from the other teams. The two Stockton schools are the closest opponents to Golden Valley, and they are more than an hour drive away.
3. Lodi Flames
Why?: It is the closest division I school to Sacramento. In addition, it plays in the same league as Lincoln and St. Mary's.
Why not?: Honestly, I cannot think of anything of substance to answer this question. There are other programs that seem more suitable than Lodi, but I have no evidence to support that statement.
4. Ripon Christian Knights
Why?: Ripon Christian is the only school under 1,000 I think has a shot. Why? Currently the Knights have fewer spring sports than other schools. They don't have a track team, and they got rid of boy’s volleyball a few years ago. Lacrosse would allow extra training for the football, and more important to them, basketball players.
Why not?: Size. Since the school has around 175 students, it would need a large percentage of students not already playing a sport to play lacrosse. That is not likely.
5. Tracy Bulldogs
Why?: Though Mountain House is the closest school to the Bay Area, it is still too small right now. The next closest town is Tracy. Out of the three public Tracy high schools, Tracy High has had the most athletic success. Plus, it is in the same league as Lincoln and St. Mary's.
Why not?: West and Kimball are closer to the Bay Area, and that may increase the chances of one of those two schools of getting the program.
Order of likelihood of lacrosse actually happening in my opinion:
Tracy 2) Lodi 3) Bear Creek 4) Ripon Christian 5) Golden Valley
Bonus Information:
Next 5 Schools I think have a chance to be the next program
6. West (Tracy) 7. Tokay (Lodi) 8. McNair (Stockton) 9. Gregori (Modesto) 10. Enochs (Modesto)
In reality, I think the sport will get bigger in the Sacramento - area before it makes its way South. The next school in the entire Sac-Joaquin Section that gets it will be Folsom
Saturday, April 2, 2016
What if NCAA Division II had all the postseason tournaments Division I has?
A coworker and I were talking about the Stanislaus State women's basketball team the day after they lost the first round of the CCAA (California Collegiate Athletic Association) tournament against CSU-San Bernardino. He said, "And in Division II, there is no NIT, CIT, or anything. It's 'turn in your jersey on Monday.'" That got me thinking. What if there were all these additional tournaments for NCAA Division II? First of all, if the qualifying procedures were the same for Division II as they are in Division I, Stanislaus State would automatically qualify for the Division II WNIT as the top team of the CCAA not to make the NCAA tournament. Here is what I have designed for the men's side.
NIT
In division I, regular season conference champions that do not make the NCAA tournament get an automatic bid to the NIT. However, in division II, it is rare that the regular season conference champion does not make the NCAA tournament. In fact, out of 24 conferences in division II, only two regular season chanpions did not make the Division II tournament, and one of them was ineligible, because the school has not been a division II school long enough (yes, division II has that rule, too). Therefore, in my mind, I made some changes for division II NIT. First, I would split the 32 teams in the same regions that the NCAA Division II tournament has, so I have them split in eight regions of four teams each. Also, instead of having just the higher seed host, I would have the top seed host the regions (with one exception). Second, the top team in each conference that did not make the NCAA tournament would get an automatic bid, with the top ranked team in each region not already in a tournament get an at-large bid. Here is what my NIT would look like:
WEST at Dixie St.
(4) CSU-Monterey Bay @ (1) Dixie St.
(3) Alaska-Anchorage vs. (2) Alaska-Fairbanks (This is my exception. Since they are both Alaska teams, and that state is a long way from the lower 48 states, I would have UAF host that game, and the winner go to St. George, UT to play the winner of the other game.)
SOUTH CENTRAL at West Texas A&M
(4) Texas A&M International @ (1) West Texas A&M
(3) Cameron vs. (2) Colorado Mesa
CENTRAL at East Central
(4) Northern St. @ (1) East Central
(3) Pittsburg St. vs. (2) Missouri Southern St.
MIDWEST at Findlay
(4) Alderson-Broaddus @ (1) Findlay
(3) Drury vs. (2) Lake Superior St.
EAST at Adelphi
(4) Bloomfield @ (1) Adelphi
(3) Daemen vs. (2) Merrimack
ATLANTIC at Indiana (PA)
(4) Chowan @ (1) Indiana (PA)
(3) Notre Dame (OH) vs. (2) East Stroudsburg
SOUTHEAST at Barton
(4) Young Harris @ (1) Barton
(3) Newberry vs. (2) Augusta St.
SOUTH at Delta St.
(4) Miles @ (1) Delta St.
(3) Lynn vs. (2) Valdosta St.
Vegas 16
First, for Division II, I'd move it to Reno and put it in the Reno Events Center. The idea of the Vegas 16 was to have 8 teams from the power conferences and 8 teams from the others. I don't know what the power conferences are in Division II, but I used the top 7 ranked conferences as the power conferences and took the top 8 ranked in each section for my team selection. Here would-be my bracket
How I would make Reno 16
Power Conferences
CCAA
LSC
PAC WEST
GLIAC
HC
NSIC
PSAC
Tournament
Lindenwood vs. BYU-Hawaii
St. Martin’s vs. Grand Valley St.
Southern Indiana vs. Hillsdale
Chaminade vs. Truman St
Montana St.-Billings vs. Hawaii Pacific
Sonoma St. vs. Quincy
Western Washington vs. San Francisco St.
Point Loma vs. Central Washington
By the way, since the real Vegas 16 couldn't field 16 teams, they should have just made the first day a showcase of division II basketball teams, just my opinion.
CBI
I would make this one work like the real CBI. For the team selection, I just used the top 16 ranked teams. I didn't pay attention to records.
Metro St. @ Dominican (CA)
Cal State-L.A @ Winona St
Shippensburg @ Texas A&M-Commerce
Michigan Tech @ Newman
Mary @ St. Edward’s
Sioux Falls @ Walsh
Upper Iowa @ Hawai'i-Hilo
Texas-Permian Basin @ Northwood
CIT
The one change I would make is to seed the top 8 teams to make sure they don't play each other until the quarterfinals. I would make everything else the same.
Southern Arkansas (GAC) @ (8) Central Oklahoma (MIAA)
Bridgeport (ECC) @ (7) Franklin Pierce (NE-10)
University of the Sciences (CACC) @ Bloomsburg (PSAC)
Trevecca Nazarene (GMAC) @ Carson-Newman (SAC)
Georgia College & State (PBC) @ Emmanuel (CC)
Colorado-Colorado Springs (RMAC) @ (5) Colorado St.-Pueblo (RMAC)
Minnesota-Duluth (NSIC) @ (4) Washburn (MIAA)
Lincoln (MO) (MIAA) @ (2) Rodgers St. (GAC)
Slippery Rock (PSAC) @ Bowie St. (CIAA)
Long Island-Post (ECC) @ Pittsburgh-Johnstown (PSAC)
Edinboro (PSAC) @ West Virginia Wesleyan (MEC)
Charleston (MEC) @ Shepherd (MEC)
New Mexico Highlands (RMAC) @ (1) Concordia-Irvine (PacWest)
North Alabama (GSC) @ Embry - Riddle (IND)
Oakland City (IND) @ (3) San Marcos St. (CCAA)
Minot St. (NSIC) @ (6) Fresno Pacific (PacWest)
NIT
In division I, regular season conference champions that do not make the NCAA tournament get an automatic bid to the NIT. However, in division II, it is rare that the regular season conference champion does not make the NCAA tournament. In fact, out of 24 conferences in division II, only two regular season chanpions did not make the Division II tournament, and one of them was ineligible, because the school has not been a division II school long enough (yes, division II has that rule, too). Therefore, in my mind, I made some changes for division II NIT. First, I would split the 32 teams in the same regions that the NCAA Division II tournament has, so I have them split in eight regions of four teams each. Also, instead of having just the higher seed host, I would have the top seed host the regions (with one exception). Second, the top team in each conference that did not make the NCAA tournament would get an automatic bid, with the top ranked team in each region not already in a tournament get an at-large bid. Here is what my NIT would look like:
WEST at Dixie St.
(4) CSU-Monterey Bay @ (1) Dixie St.
(3) Alaska-Anchorage vs. (2) Alaska-Fairbanks (This is my exception. Since they are both Alaska teams, and that state is a long way from the lower 48 states, I would have UAF host that game, and the winner go to St. George, UT to play the winner of the other game.)
SOUTH CENTRAL at West Texas A&M
(4) Texas A&M International @ (1) West Texas A&M
(3) Cameron vs. (2) Colorado Mesa
CENTRAL at East Central
(4) Northern St. @ (1) East Central
(3) Pittsburg St. vs. (2) Missouri Southern St.
MIDWEST at Findlay
(4) Alderson-Broaddus @ (1) Findlay
(3) Drury vs. (2) Lake Superior St.
EAST at Adelphi
(4) Bloomfield @ (1) Adelphi
(3) Daemen vs. (2) Merrimack
ATLANTIC at Indiana (PA)
(4) Chowan @ (1) Indiana (PA)
(3) Notre Dame (OH) vs. (2) East Stroudsburg
SOUTHEAST at Barton
(4) Young Harris @ (1) Barton
(3) Newberry vs. (2) Augusta St.
SOUTH at Delta St.
(4) Miles @ (1) Delta St.
(3) Lynn vs. (2) Valdosta St.
Vegas 16
First, for Division II, I'd move it to Reno and put it in the Reno Events Center. The idea of the Vegas 16 was to have 8 teams from the power conferences and 8 teams from the others. I don't know what the power conferences are in Division II, but I used the top 7 ranked conferences as the power conferences and took the top 8 ranked in each section for my team selection. Here would-be my bracket
How I would make Reno 16
Power Conferences
CCAA
LSC
PAC WEST
GLIAC
HC
NSIC
PSAC
Tournament
Lindenwood vs. BYU-Hawaii
St. Martin’s vs. Grand Valley St.
Southern Indiana vs. Hillsdale
Chaminade vs. Truman St
Montana St.-Billings vs. Hawaii Pacific
Sonoma St. vs. Quincy
Western Washington vs. San Francisco St.
Point Loma vs. Central Washington
By the way, since the real Vegas 16 couldn't field 16 teams, they should have just made the first day a showcase of division II basketball teams, just my opinion.
CBI
I would make this one work like the real CBI. For the team selection, I just used the top 16 ranked teams. I didn't pay attention to records.
Metro St. @ Dominican (CA)
Cal State-L.A @ Winona St
Shippensburg @ Texas A&M-Commerce
Michigan Tech @ Newman
Mary @ St. Edward’s
Sioux Falls @ Walsh
Upper Iowa @ Hawai'i-Hilo
Texas-Permian Basin @ Northwood
CIT
The one change I would make is to seed the top 8 teams to make sure they don't play each other until the quarterfinals. I would make everything else the same.
Southern Arkansas (GAC) @ (8) Central Oklahoma (MIAA)
Bridgeport (ECC) @ (7) Franklin Pierce (NE-10)
University of the Sciences (CACC) @ Bloomsburg (PSAC)
Trevecca Nazarene (GMAC) @ Carson-Newman (SAC)
Georgia College & State (PBC) @ Emmanuel (CC)
Colorado-Colorado Springs (RMAC) @ (5) Colorado St.-Pueblo (RMAC)
Minnesota-Duluth (NSIC) @ (4) Washburn (MIAA)
Lincoln (MO) (MIAA) @ (2) Rodgers St. (GAC)
Slippery Rock (PSAC) @ Bowie St. (CIAA)
Long Island-Post (ECC) @ Pittsburgh-Johnstown (PSAC)
Edinboro (PSAC) @ West Virginia Wesleyan (MEC)
Charleston (MEC) @ Shepherd (MEC)
New Mexico Highlands (RMAC) @ (1) Concordia-Irvine (PacWest)
North Alabama (GSC) @ Embry - Riddle (IND)
Oakland City (IND) @ (3) San Marcos St. (CCAA)
Minot St. (NSIC) @ (6) Fresno Pacific (PacWest)
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
If I Was King of Sports-3rd Annual 209 basketball tournament
This may be the last year that I do this for basketball. I realized that this tournament might be better for baseball.
There is one change in the seeding priority. Section champions and runners up get priority, even if they did not win league. Here is what my tournament would look like this year.
Pod A- at Modesto Christian
(8) Tokay (TCAL) vs. (1) Modesto Christian (MMC)
(5) Merced (CCC) vs. (4) Tioga (MVL)
(6) Escalon (TVL) vs. (3) Calaveras (MLL)
(7) Orestimba (SL) vs. (2) Jim Elliot Christian (CCAA)
Pod B- at Weston Ranch (Stockton)
(8) Linden (MLL) vs. (1) Weston Ranch (VOL)
(5) Gustine (SL) vs. (4) Hughes Academy (MVL)
(6) Stagg (SJAA) vs. (3) Beyer (MMC)
(7) Buhach Colony (CCC) vs. (2) Ripon (TVL)
Pod C- at Central Catholic (Modesto)
(8) Amador (MLL) vs. (1) Central Catholic (VOL)
(5) Holt Academy (MVL) vs. (4) Venture Academy (CCAA)
(6) Franklin (SJAA) vs. (3) Patterson (WAC)
(7) Riverbank (TVL) vs. (2) St. Mary's (TCAL)
Pod D- at Mariposa
(8) Millennium (CCAA) vs. (1) Mariposa (SL)
(5) Lathrop (VOL) vs. (4) Sonora (MLL)
(6) Gregori (MMC) vs. (3) Lodi (TCAL)
(7) Hughson (TVL) vs. (2) Pitman (CCC)
Pod E- at Stockton Christian
(8) Livingston (WAC) vs. (1) Stockton Christian (MVL)
(5) East Union (VOL)vs. (4) Lincoln (TCAL)
(6) Hilmar (TVL) vs. (3) Argonaut (MLL)
(7) Modesto (MMC) vs. (2) Edison (SJAA)
Pod F- at Manteca
(8) Turlock (CCC) vs. (1) Manteca (VOL)
(5) Enochs (MMC) vs. (4) Big Valley (CCAA)
(6) Lodi Academy (MVL) vs. (3) Chavez (SJAA)
(7) Denair (SL) vs. (2) Ripon Christian (TVL)
Pod G- at Brookside Christian (Stockton)
(8) Delta Charter (MVL) vs. (1) Brookside Christian (CCAA)
(5) Bret Harte (MLL) vs. (4) Davis (MMC)
(6) Ceres (WAC) vs. (3) McNair (SJAA)
(7) Kimball (VOL) vs. (2) El Capitan (WAC/CCC)
Pod H- at Liberty Ranch (Galt)
(8) Johansen (MMC) vs. (1) Liberty Ranch (SVC)
(5) Central Valley (WAC) vs. (4) West (TCAL)
(6) Atwater (CCC) vs. (3) Sierra (VOL)
(7) Bear Creek (SJAA) vs. (2) Summerville (MLL)
There is one change in the seeding priority. Section champions and runners up get priority, even if they did not win league. Here is what my tournament would look like this year.
Pod A- at Modesto Christian
(8) Tokay (TCAL) vs. (1) Modesto Christian (MMC)
(5) Merced (CCC) vs. (4) Tioga (MVL)
(6) Escalon (TVL) vs. (3) Calaveras (MLL)
(7) Orestimba (SL) vs. (2) Jim Elliot Christian (CCAA)
Pod B- at Weston Ranch (Stockton)
(8) Linden (MLL) vs. (1) Weston Ranch (VOL)
(5) Gustine (SL) vs. (4) Hughes Academy (MVL)
(6) Stagg (SJAA) vs. (3) Beyer (MMC)
(7) Buhach Colony (CCC) vs. (2) Ripon (TVL)
Pod C- at Central Catholic (Modesto)
(8) Amador (MLL) vs. (1) Central Catholic (VOL)
(5) Holt Academy (MVL) vs. (4) Venture Academy (CCAA)
(6) Franklin (SJAA) vs. (3) Patterson (WAC)
(7) Riverbank (TVL) vs. (2) St. Mary's (TCAL)
Pod D- at Mariposa
(8) Millennium (CCAA) vs. (1) Mariposa (SL)
(5) Lathrop (VOL) vs. (4) Sonora (MLL)
(6) Gregori (MMC) vs. (3) Lodi (TCAL)
(7) Hughson (TVL) vs. (2) Pitman (CCC)
Pod E- at Stockton Christian
(8) Livingston (WAC) vs. (1) Stockton Christian (MVL)
(5) East Union (VOL)vs. (4) Lincoln (TCAL)
(6) Hilmar (TVL) vs. (3) Argonaut (MLL)
(7) Modesto (MMC) vs. (2) Edison (SJAA)
Pod F- at Manteca
(8) Turlock (CCC) vs. (1) Manteca (VOL)
(5) Enochs (MMC) vs. (4) Big Valley (CCAA)
(6) Lodi Academy (MVL) vs. (3) Chavez (SJAA)
(7) Denair (SL) vs. (2) Ripon Christian (TVL)
Pod G- at Brookside Christian (Stockton)
(8) Delta Charter (MVL) vs. (1) Brookside Christian (CCAA)
(5) Bret Harte (MLL) vs. (4) Davis (MMC)
(6) Ceres (WAC) vs. (3) McNair (SJAA)
(7) Kimball (VOL) vs. (2) El Capitan (WAC/CCC)
Pod H- at Liberty Ranch (Galt)
(8) Johansen (MMC) vs. (1) Liberty Ranch (SVC)
(5) Central Valley (WAC) vs. (4) West (TCAL)
(6) Atwater (CCC) vs. (3) Sierra (VOL)
(7) Bear Creek (SJAA) vs. (2) Summerville (MLL)
Sunday, February 21, 2016
The Way Too Early 2018 Sac-Joaquin Section Realignment Predictions
Every four years, the Sac-Joaquin Section realigns its teams based on enrollments and competitive ability. Many years, changes are only minor, but there were significant league changes in 2014. Central Catholic was moved up to the Valley Oak League. Up north, Oak Ridge and Folsom moved to the Sierra Foothill League, which made a tough league even tougher. There will be another realignment in 2018. There probably will not be as many moves in 2018 as there were in 2014. Unlike the NCAA, the Sac-Joaquin Section board decides which team joins what league, instead of teams and leagues agreeing. In this blog, I will make 5 predictions on how the section will move teams and why I think so. If ESPN can make way too early predictions, why can't I? My predictions will only involve teams in the southern part of the section.
1) Davis will get moved to the Western Athletic Conference (WAC).
Once Gregori High School became Modesto’s seventh public high school, the enrollment at Davis High School dropped drastically. It quickly went from over 2,000 students to just over 1,400. Enrollment-wise, it is a perfect fit for the WAC. In addition, I read that the section gave Modesto City Schools one last chance to balance the enrollment numbers, or the city's schools will be split into different conferences. The section did not follow through when it had the chance to do a rare move and have the Spartans move conferences in the middle of a realignment period. I predict that the section will follow through this time. While we're at it…
2) Johansen will join Davis in moving to the WAC.
Enrollment wise, Johansen High School would be too large for the WAC with over 1,900 students. However, competitive equity is also a factor in placing schools in conferences. Johansen has not been successful in the Modesto Metro Conference (MMC) in the major sports for a few years. Sometime the section will make moves to help programs out, like allowing Riverbank football to play as an independent. I think it will do the same for the Vikings and move them to the WAC. If I am correct that both Davis and Johansen move to the WAC, that will leave the MMC with five teams in all sports, except for basketball. The section would fill the league with a sixth team. I will not make a formal prediction on who that team would be, but some possible candidates would be Oakdale, Central Catholic, and Modesto Christian.
3) Patterson will join the Valley Oak League (VOL) or the MMC.
Patterson has around 1,700 students. It is too large for the WAC, and the Tigers have some success. Last time, I predicted the Tigers would be in the VOL and I was wrong. It is only now that I am writing this particular prediction that I think the MMC is a possibility. Patterson may soon equal or surpass Johansen’s enrollment, but the Tigers athletically can “hang” with the teams in the MMC whereas the Vikings have struggled. Soon it will get to the point that Patterson is too large for the WAC, and it will have to join one of those two leagues. If the Tigers move to the VOL, one of the teams currently in it will have to leave to prevent a nine-team league. The three most likely choices are either Oakdale or Central Catholic to the MMC or Kimball moves to the Tri City Athletic League.
4) The VOL will be a division II league.
Not only will the section change teams around, but it will change division status of leagues if the teams are too good. A few years ago, the section moved the Sierra Foothill League up to Division I from Division II, because the teams were too good. Currently the VOL is a division III league. As a division III league, the VOL has had a lot of success. Just this year alone, there have been all-VOL finals in football, boy's soccer, and boy's water polo, and the year is only half-over. There could be an All-VOL final in boy’s basketball, too. Also, in football, the league had two section, NorCal, and state champions in Sierra and Central Catholic. The league also had two section champions in girl’s water polo with Oakdale winning in division II and Kimball winning division III. The section could keep Division III at two leagues, but I think either the Metro League or the Solano County Athletic Conference will move down to Division III.
5) The MINUTE the Sac-Joaquin Section decides to make the team wrestling playoff divisions enrollment-based, Oakdale gets bumped up to Division I.
When I was in high school, a certain amount of teams in each league made the playoffs (the amount depended on the specific league), and the playoff divisions and brackets determined where and who each team played. Now many sports have the division assignments based on enrollments. However, some sports still use the old system for playoffs: boy’s and girl’s team tennis, baseball, softball, and team wrestling.
I don't think the section will base wrestling divisions by enrollment any time soon, but I could be wrong. The section will move teams up a division for being too successful. It happened to Central Catholic football. The Raiders were moved up to division III this year, and because they won the championship again this year, they will be moved up to division II next year. There has been one program in the 209 that has even been more successful than Central Catholic football over the past decade, and that has been Oakdale wrestling. The team has won eight championships in a row whether the VOL has been a division IV league or a division III. The team has been ranked in the top-15 in the state (across all divisions), and I have been told there have been JV wrestlers that could have advanced to sections if the wrestlers went to any other school. This year, the Oakdale wrestling team has been as high as #2 in the section and #12 in the state, and that is not even the best team Oakdale has had in the past decade. I am sure the section will want Oakdale to compete against Del Oro, Elk Grove, Vacaville, and Folsom for the playoffs.
Bonus: There will still be no “private school” league.
There are some people who believe that the private schools should not be able to be in the same league as the public schools, and they call for an all-private school league. Technically, there is already three all-private school leagues, the Central California Athletic Alliance, Sacramento Metro Athletic League, and the North Pacific League, but those leagues do not have any power private schools, with the possible exception of Brookside Christian of the CCAA. But, there is no “power private school league” in the Sac-Joaquin Section like the West Catholic League in the Central Coast Section, and there won't be any time soon for two reasons…
There aren't enough teams.
There are only two ways to get enough teams, and neither are plausible. Either have the schools that do not focus on athletics be put in the same leagues that do, and that is not fair. The athletic programs that do not completely focus on sports won't be able to survive, and those kids should have a place to play. The other option is to have a north/south league, but I am sure the section will not want to do that. In the south (209), there are Central Catholic, Modesto Christian, Ripon Christian, St. Mary's, and maybe Brookside Christian. In the north, there are: Capital Christian, Christian Brothers, Jesuit, Sacramento (a charter school, but those schools would be “privates” in the athletic sense), and maybe Bradshaw Christian.
B) There are enough public schools that are just as good, and some even better than the private schools.
In football and basketball, the top-ranked team in the section is public-school Folsom. Jesuit usually finishes third or fourth in the league it is currently in. Central Catholic finished third in the VOL in basketball this year, behind Weston Ranch and Manteca. Also, Oakdale and Central Catholic trade wins. As long as there are enough public schools that can compete, there will not be a “power private school league”.
In 2017, we will find out what the section will decide. I am curious to see if I get any of these predictions correct.
1) Davis will get moved to the Western Athletic Conference (WAC).
Once Gregori High School became Modesto’s seventh public high school, the enrollment at Davis High School dropped drastically. It quickly went from over 2,000 students to just over 1,400. Enrollment-wise, it is a perfect fit for the WAC. In addition, I read that the section gave Modesto City Schools one last chance to balance the enrollment numbers, or the city's schools will be split into different conferences. The section did not follow through when it had the chance to do a rare move and have the Spartans move conferences in the middle of a realignment period. I predict that the section will follow through this time. While we're at it…
2) Johansen will join Davis in moving to the WAC.
Enrollment wise, Johansen High School would be too large for the WAC with over 1,900 students. However, competitive equity is also a factor in placing schools in conferences. Johansen has not been successful in the Modesto Metro Conference (MMC) in the major sports for a few years. Sometime the section will make moves to help programs out, like allowing Riverbank football to play as an independent. I think it will do the same for the Vikings and move them to the WAC. If I am correct that both Davis and Johansen move to the WAC, that will leave the MMC with five teams in all sports, except for basketball. The section would fill the league with a sixth team. I will not make a formal prediction on who that team would be, but some possible candidates would be Oakdale, Central Catholic, and Modesto Christian.
3) Patterson will join the Valley Oak League (VOL) or the MMC.
Patterson has around 1,700 students. It is too large for the WAC, and the Tigers have some success. Last time, I predicted the Tigers would be in the VOL and I was wrong. It is only now that I am writing this particular prediction that I think the MMC is a possibility. Patterson may soon equal or surpass Johansen’s enrollment, but the Tigers athletically can “hang” with the teams in the MMC whereas the Vikings have struggled. Soon it will get to the point that Patterson is too large for the WAC, and it will have to join one of those two leagues. If the Tigers move to the VOL, one of the teams currently in it will have to leave to prevent a nine-team league. The three most likely choices are either Oakdale or Central Catholic to the MMC or Kimball moves to the Tri City Athletic League.
4) The VOL will be a division II league.
Not only will the section change teams around, but it will change division status of leagues if the teams are too good. A few years ago, the section moved the Sierra Foothill League up to Division I from Division II, because the teams were too good. Currently the VOL is a division III league. As a division III league, the VOL has had a lot of success. Just this year alone, there have been all-VOL finals in football, boy's soccer, and boy's water polo, and the year is only half-over. There could be an All-VOL final in boy’s basketball, too. Also, in football, the league had two section, NorCal, and state champions in Sierra and Central Catholic. The league also had two section champions in girl’s water polo with Oakdale winning in division II and Kimball winning division III. The section could keep Division III at two leagues, but I think either the Metro League or the Solano County Athletic Conference will move down to Division III.
5) The MINUTE the Sac-Joaquin Section decides to make the team wrestling playoff divisions enrollment-based, Oakdale gets bumped up to Division I.
When I was in high school, a certain amount of teams in each league made the playoffs (the amount depended on the specific league), and the playoff divisions and brackets determined where and who each team played. Now many sports have the division assignments based on enrollments. However, some sports still use the old system for playoffs: boy’s and girl’s team tennis, baseball, softball, and team wrestling.
I don't think the section will base wrestling divisions by enrollment any time soon, but I could be wrong. The section will move teams up a division for being too successful. It happened to Central Catholic football. The Raiders were moved up to division III this year, and because they won the championship again this year, they will be moved up to division II next year. There has been one program in the 209 that has even been more successful than Central Catholic football over the past decade, and that has been Oakdale wrestling. The team has won eight championships in a row whether the VOL has been a division IV league or a division III. The team has been ranked in the top-15 in the state (across all divisions), and I have been told there have been JV wrestlers that could have advanced to sections if the wrestlers went to any other school. This year, the Oakdale wrestling team has been as high as #2 in the section and #12 in the state, and that is not even the best team Oakdale has had in the past decade. I am sure the section will want Oakdale to compete against Del Oro, Elk Grove, Vacaville, and Folsom for the playoffs.
Bonus: There will still be no “private school” league.
There are some people who believe that the private schools should not be able to be in the same league as the public schools, and they call for an all-private school league. Technically, there is already three all-private school leagues, the Central California Athletic Alliance, Sacramento Metro Athletic League, and the North Pacific League, but those leagues do not have any power private schools, with the possible exception of Brookside Christian of the CCAA. But, there is no “power private school league” in the Sac-Joaquin Section like the West Catholic League in the Central Coast Section, and there won't be any time soon for two reasons…
There aren't enough teams.
There are only two ways to get enough teams, and neither are plausible. Either have the schools that do not focus on athletics be put in the same leagues that do, and that is not fair. The athletic programs that do not completely focus on sports won't be able to survive, and those kids should have a place to play. The other option is to have a north/south league, but I am sure the section will not want to do that. In the south (209), there are Central Catholic, Modesto Christian, Ripon Christian, St. Mary's, and maybe Brookside Christian. In the north, there are: Capital Christian, Christian Brothers, Jesuit, Sacramento (a charter school, but those schools would be “privates” in the athletic sense), and maybe Bradshaw Christian.
B) There are enough public schools that are just as good, and some even better than the private schools.
In football and basketball, the top-ranked team in the section is public-school Folsom. Jesuit usually finishes third or fourth in the league it is currently in. Central Catholic finished third in the VOL in basketball this year, behind Weston Ranch and Manteca. Also, Oakdale and Central Catholic trade wins. As long as there are enough public schools that can compete, there will not be a “power private school league”.
In 2017, we will find out what the section will decide. I am curious to see if I get any of these predictions correct.
Monday, November 23, 2015
If I Was King of Sports/Random Thought: 8-Man state tournament
There are those who make a living reporting high school football that want the section playoffs to be eliminated, and California to go to a state tournament. While I don't agree with their viewpoint, there is a way we can test the theory. We can have a 32-team, 8-man state playoff (16 for the north, 16 for the south). There is currently no California state championship for 8-man football. I had several ideas for proposals, and I learned there is no true fair way to do it, unless the powers that be want to make high school athletes travel great distances week after week. Having 16 teams for each region created the least incovience.
In my model, each league champion has an automatic berth, and I used the top rated teams by calpreps.com as the at-large teams. Plus, I used the calpreps.com rankings to seed the teams, unless teams from the same league would play each other. (Note: In this bracket, I did have to put two teams in the same league against each other in the 1st round, because I otherwise would have to move some teams down unjustifiably.) Since the southern part of the state is so much stronger, I considered having one team from the south cross over to the north, but if I had my way, the south would either have to agree to play all the games on the road, or compromise to playing in the Bakersfield-area for its "home games". The championship game would be at a neutral pre-determined site.
South (Los Angeles, San Diego, and Southern Sections) (12 Automatic berths, 4 at-large) ^=at large
Team, Section, League (Higher seeds would host)
(1) Cate (Carpenteria) Southern, Condor
(16) Hillcrest Chr. (Thousand Oaks), Southern, Omega
(8) Fulton Valley (LA-Van Nuys), Los Angeles, Valley
(9) San Jacinto Valley Academy, Southern, Warrior
(5) Faith Baptist^ (LA-Canoga Park), Southern, IND
(12) Amino Robinson (Los Angeles), Los Angeles, City
(4) Avalon, Southern, Express
(13) Trona, Southern, Hi-Lo
(6) Desert Chapel^ (Palm Springs), Southern, Victory
(11) Lucerne Valley, Southern, Agape
(3) Mojave^, Southern, IND
(14) Calvin Chr. (Escondido), San Diego, Ocean
(7) Thatcher^ (Ojai), Southern, Condor
(10) Cuyama Valley (New Cuyama), Southern, CVC
(2) Joshua Springs (Yucca Valley), Southern, Victory
(15) Ocean View Chr. (San Diego), San Diego, Citrus
First 4 out: Laguna Blanca (Santa Barbara)
Desert Christian (Bermuda Dunes)
Orcutt Academy
Upland Christian (Rancho Cucamonga)
(All are in Southern Section)
North (All other sections that have 8-man football) (5 automatic, 11 at-large)
Team, Section, League
(1) Redding Chr. (Palo Cedro), Northern, 8-man North
(16) Butte Valley^ (Dorris), Northern, 8-man North
(8) Trinity Chr.^ (Monterey), Central Coast, MTL
(9) Crystal Springs Uplands^ (Hillsboro), Central Coast, IND
(5) Stuart Hall (San Francisco), Central Coast, MTL
(12) Loyalton^, Northern, 8-man South
(4) Fresno Chr., Central, CSL
(13) Upper Lake, North Coast, NCL III
(6) Mercy (Red Bluff), Northern, 8-man South
(11) Calistoga^, North Coast, NCL III
(3) Hayfork^, Northern, 8-man North
(14) Point Arena^, North Coast, NCL III
(7) Anderson Valley^ (Booneville), North Coast, NCL III
(10) Pinewood^ (Los Altos Hills), Central Coast, MTL
(2) Big Valley^ (Bieber), Northern, 8-man North
(15) Riverdale Chr.^, Central Coast, MTL
Last 4 out: Greenville, Princeton, Tulelake, Tomales
If I did the crossover rule, Laguna Blanca would be in and Butte Valley would be out.
In my model, each league champion has an automatic berth, and I used the top rated teams by calpreps.com as the at-large teams. Plus, I used the calpreps.com rankings to seed the teams, unless teams from the same league would play each other. (Note: In this bracket, I did have to put two teams in the same league against each other in the 1st round, because I otherwise would have to move some teams down unjustifiably.) Since the southern part of the state is so much stronger, I considered having one team from the south cross over to the north, but if I had my way, the south would either have to agree to play all the games on the road, or compromise to playing in the Bakersfield-area for its "home games". The championship game would be at a neutral pre-determined site.
South (Los Angeles, San Diego, and Southern Sections) (12 Automatic berths, 4 at-large) ^=at large
Team, Section, League (Higher seeds would host)
(1) Cate (Carpenteria) Southern, Condor
(16) Hillcrest Chr. (Thousand Oaks), Southern, Omega
(8) Fulton Valley (LA-Van Nuys), Los Angeles, Valley
(9) San Jacinto Valley Academy, Southern, Warrior
(5) Faith Baptist^ (LA-Canoga Park), Southern, IND
(12) Amino Robinson (Los Angeles), Los Angeles, City
(4) Avalon, Southern, Express
(13) Trona, Southern, Hi-Lo
(6) Desert Chapel^ (Palm Springs), Southern, Victory
(11) Lucerne Valley, Southern, Agape
(3) Mojave^, Southern, IND
(14) Calvin Chr. (Escondido), San Diego, Ocean
(7) Thatcher^ (Ojai), Southern, Condor
(10) Cuyama Valley (New Cuyama), Southern, CVC
(2) Joshua Springs (Yucca Valley), Southern, Victory
(15) Ocean View Chr. (San Diego), San Diego, Citrus
First 4 out: Laguna Blanca (Santa Barbara)
Desert Christian (Bermuda Dunes)
Orcutt Academy
Upland Christian (Rancho Cucamonga)
(All are in Southern Section)
North (All other sections that have 8-man football) (5 automatic, 11 at-large)
Team, Section, League
(1) Redding Chr. (Palo Cedro), Northern, 8-man North
(16) Butte Valley^ (Dorris), Northern, 8-man North
(8) Trinity Chr.^ (Monterey), Central Coast, MTL
(9) Crystal Springs Uplands^ (Hillsboro), Central Coast, IND
(5) Stuart Hall (San Francisco), Central Coast, MTL
(12) Loyalton^, Northern, 8-man South
(4) Fresno Chr., Central, CSL
(13) Upper Lake, North Coast, NCL III
(6) Mercy (Red Bluff), Northern, 8-man South
(11) Calistoga^, North Coast, NCL III
(3) Hayfork^, Northern, 8-man North
(14) Point Arena^, North Coast, NCL III
(7) Anderson Valley^ (Booneville), North Coast, NCL III
(10) Pinewood^ (Los Altos Hills), Central Coast, MTL
(2) Big Valley^ (Bieber), Northern, 8-man North
(15) Riverdale Chr.^, Central Coast, MTL
Last 4 out: Greenville, Princeton, Tulelake, Tomales
If I did the crossover rule, Laguna Blanca would be in and Butte Valley would be out.
Saturday, November 7, 2015
Sac-Joaquin Section football playoff 2015
DIVISION III
(16) El Camino (Sacramento) @ (1) CENTRAL CATHOLIC (MODESTO)
(9) Christian Brothers (Sacramento) @ (8) Vanden (Fairfield)
(12) River Valley (Yuba City) @ (5) Placer (Auburn)
(13) Yuba City @ (4) PATTERSON
(11) CENTRAL VALLEY (CERES) @ (6) MANTECA
(14) Lincoln @ (3) Inderkum (Sacramento)
(10) Benicia @ (7) Vista del Lago (Folsom)
(15) El Dorado (Placerville) @ (2) OAKDALE
DIVISION I
(16) Kennedy (Sacramento) @ (1) Folsom
(9) Franklin (Elk Grove) @ (8) TURLOCK
(12) STAGG (STOCKTON) @ (5) ST. MARY'S (STOCKTON)
(13) Pleasant Grove (Elk Grove) @ (4) Napa
(11) LINCOLN (STOCKTON) @ (6) Cosumnes Oaks (Elk Grove)
(14) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) @ (3) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills)
(10) MODESTO @ (7) MERCED
(15) GREGORI (MODESTO) @ (2) Elk Grove
DIVISION II
(16) BEYER (MODESTO) @ (1) Grant (Sacramento)
(9) Granite Bay @ (8) DOWNEY (MODESTO)
(12) Whitney (Rocklin) @ (5) Del Oro (Loomis)
(13) American Canyon @ (4) Wood (Vacaville)
(11) PITMAN (TURLOCK) @ (6) Del Campo (Fair Oaks)
(14) Burbank (Sacramento) @ (3) Rocklin
(10) MCNAIR (STOCKTON) @ (7) Sacramento
(15) WEST (TRACY) @ (2) Antelope
DIVISION IV
(8) LOS BANOS @ (1) LATHROP
(5) Dixon @ (4) LIBERTY RANCH (GALT)
(6) Union Mine (El Dorado) @ (3) SIERRA (MANTECA)
(7) Center (Antelope) @ (2) CALAVERAS (SAN ANDREAS)
DIVISION V
(8) Marysville @ (1) SONORA
(5) HUGHSON @ (4) ORESTIMBA (NEWMAN)
(6) Bear River (Grass Valley) @ (3) RIPON
(7) Highlands (North Highlands) @ (2) Capital Christian (Sacramento)
DIVISION VI
(8) MARIPOSA @ (1) HILMAR
(5) Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) @ (4) RIPON CHRISTIAN
(6) Rio Vista @ (3) GUSTINE
(7) AMADOR (SUTTER CREEK @ (2) Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento)
DIVISION VII
CCAA 3 MILLENNIUM @ SMAL 2 Woodland Christian
winner plays CCAA 1 STONE RIDGE CHRISTIAN (MERCED)
SMAL 3 Foresthill @ CCAA 2 BIG VALLEY (MODESTO)
winner plays SMAL 1 Delta (Clarksburg)
CENTRAL SECTION DIVISION V
1st round
(9) Lindsay @ (8) Caruthers
(10) Bishop @ (7) Mendota
2nd round
LIN/CAR @ (1) Immanuel (Reedley)
(5) Kern Valley (Lake Isabella) @ (4) Woodlake
(6) Firebaugh @ (3) DOS PALOS
BIS/MEN @ (2) Fowler
DIVISION II
(16) BEYER (MODESTO) @ (1) Grant (Sacramento)
(9) Granite Bay @ (8) DOWNEY (MODESTO)
(12) Whitney (Rocklin) @ (5) Del Oro (Loomis)
(13) American Canyon @ (4) Wood (Vacaville)
(11) PITMAN (TURLOCK) @ (6) Del Campo (Fair Oaks)
(14) Burbank (Sacramento) @ (3) Rocklin
(10) MCNAIR (STOCKTON) @ (7) Sacramento
(15) WEST (TRACY) @ (2) Antelope
DIVISION IV
(8) LOS BANOS @ (1) LATHROP
(5) Dixon @ (4) LIBERTY RANCH (GALT)
(6) Union Mine (El Dorado) @ (3) SIERRA (MANTECA)
(7) Center (Antelope) @ (2) CALAVERAS (SAN ANDREAS)
DIVISION V
(8) Marysville @ (1) SONORA
(5) HUGHSON @ (4) ORESTIMBA (NEWMAN)
(6) Bear River (Grass Valley) @ (3) RIPON
(7) Highlands (North Highlands) @ (2) Capital Christian (Sacramento)
DIVISION VI
(8) MARIPOSA @ (1) HILMAR
(5) Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) @ (4) RIPON CHRISTIAN
(6) Rio Vista @ (3) GUSTINE
(7) AMADOR (SUTTER CREEK @ (2) Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento)
DIVISION VII
CCAA 3 MILLENNIUM @ SMAL 2 Woodland Christian
winner plays CCAA 1 STONE RIDGE CHRISTIAN (MERCED)
SMAL 3 Foresthill @ CCAA 2 BIG VALLEY (MODESTO)
winner plays SMAL 1 Delta (Clarksburg)
CENTRAL SECTION DIVISION V
1st round
(9) Lindsay @ (8) Caruthers
(10) Bishop @ (7) Mendota
2nd round
LIN/CAR @ (1) Immanuel (Reedley)
(5) Kern Valley (Lake Isabella) @ (4) Woodlake
(6) Firebaugh @ (3) DOS PALOS
BIS/MEN @ (2) Fowler
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