Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Lower Division College Football Rankings


DIVISION I-AA Rankings

Twenty-four teams will make the playoffs.  There are no automatic bids. One team per conference will have an automatic berth, except for the Ivy League which does not participate for reasons unknown to me. and the SWAC, who does not participate due to the fact that they want their own championship.


Rank
School
Conference
Record
Next Opponent
1
Coastal Carolina (20)
Big South
10-0
vs. Monmouth (5-4)
2
New Hampshire (4)
Colonial
8-1
vs. Delaware (6-4)
3
Jacksonville St. (2)
Ohio Valley
8-1
vs. Eastern Illinois (5-5)
4
North Dakota St.
Missouri Valley
9-1
@ Missouri St. (4-6)
5
Eastern Washington
Big Sky
9-2
@ Portland St. (3-7)
6
Villanova
Colonial
8-2
vs. Albany (6-4)
7
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
8-1
@ South Dakota (2-8)
8
Fordham
Patriot
9-1
vs. Georgetown (2-7)
9
Chattanooga
Southern
7-3
@ Tennessee Tech (4-6)
10
Southeastern Louisiana
Southland
7-3
vs. #11 McNeese St. (6-3)
11
McNeese St.
Southland
6-3
@ #10 Southeastern Louisiana (7-3)
12
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
6-4
@ #23 Southern Illinois (6-4)
13
Montana St.
Big Sky
7-3
vs. Idaho St. (7-3)
14
Richmond
Colonial
7-3
vs. James Madison (7-3)
15
Montana
Big Sky
6-4
@ Southern Utah (2-8)
16
Youngstown St.
Missouri Valley
7-3
vs. #25 Indiana St. (6-4)
17
Harvard
Ivy*
8-0
@ Penn (1-7)
18
Bethune-Cookman
MEAC
8-2
@ Hampton (2-8) (11/13)
19
South Dakota St.
Missouri Valley
6-4
vs. Western Illinois (4-6)

20
Eastern Kentucky
Ohio Valley
8-2
vs. Murray St. (3-7)
21
Bryant
Northeast
8-1
@ Sacred Heart (8-2)
22
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
6-4
vs. #12 Northern Iowa (6-4)
23
William & Mary
Colonial
6-4
@ Towson (4-6)
24
Stephen F. Austin
Southland
7-3
vs. Abilene Christian (5-6)
25
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
6-4
@ #16 Youngstown St. (7-3)
*=The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs.

Leaders of conferences without a top-25 team
Pioneer- Jacksonville (6-1, 8-2)
SWAC- Grambling (7-0, 7-3)



 DIVISION I-A

Next Opponents for the playoff top 6 (the top 4 in the playoffs and the first two teams out)
1. Mississippi St. (SEC)                       @ #5 Alabama (8-1)
2. Oregon (PAC-12)                              Bye
3. Florida St. (ACC)                             @ Miami (FL) (6-3)
4. TCU (Big 12)                                    @ Kansas (3-6)
5. Alabama (SEC)                                 vs. #1 Mississippi St. (9-0)
6. Arizona St. (PAC-12)                        @ Oregon St. (4-5) 

Next opponents for conference leaders not in top 6
American Athletic- Memphis (4-1, 6-3)   @ Tulane (3-6)
Big 10- Ohio St. (5-0, 8-1)                     @ #25 Minnesota (7-2)
Conference USA- Louisiana Tech (6-0, 7-3)   @ Old Dominion (4-6)
MAC- Northern Illinois (5-1, 8-2)             d. Toledo 27-24 (11/11)
Mountain West- Colorado St. (5-1, 9-1)       Bye
Sun Belt- Georgia Southern (7-0, 8-2)     @ Navy (4-5)

Note: Marshall (9-0) is still undefeated and will host Rice on Saturday

Bowl Eligible Teams
Air Force
Alabama
Arizona
Arizona St.
Arkansas St.
Auburn
Baylor
Boise St.
Boston College
Bowling Green
BYU (Will play in Miami Beach Bowl)
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado St.
Duke
East Carolina
Florida
Florida St.
Georgia Southern (Due to its transition period, it is only eligible if there are not enough other bowl eligible teams)
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas St.
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
LSU
Marshall
Maryland
Memphis
Miami (FL)
Minnesota
Mississippi
Mississippi St.
Missouri
Nebraska
Nevada
North Carolina St.
Northern Illinois
Notre Dame
Ohio St.
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn St.
Rice
Rutgers
South Alabama
TCU
Texas
Texas A&M
Toledo
UCF
UCLA
USC
Utah
Utah St.
UTEP
Washington
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wisconsin

      
Source: espn.com

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Football Playoff Update Week 7

This week, I enforced the 2-win requirement for the 8-team leagues (though, I do not believe that any teams were left off this update because of that rule.)

If playoffs started today... 209 teams in bold

DIVISION I
(16) Edison Vikings (Stockton) (SJAA) 2-5 @ (1) Folsom Bulldogs (SFL) 7-0
(9) Woodcreek  (Roseville) (SFL) 5-2 @ (8) Monterey Trail Mustangs (Elk Grove) (DL) 5-2
(12) Turlock Bulldogs (CCC) 4-3 @ (5) Chavez Titans (Stockton) (SJAA) 5-2
(13) Oak Ridge Trojans (El Dorado Hills) (SFL) 4-4 @ (4) Merced Bears (CCC) 5-2
(11) Gregori Jaguars (Modesto) (MMC) 5-2 @ (6) Granite Bay Grizzlies (SFL) 5-2
(14) Lincoln Trojans (Stockton) (TCAL) 4-3 @ (3) Modesto Panthers (MMC) 6-1
(10) Pitman Pride (Turlock) (CCC) 5-1 @ (7) Franklin (Elk Grove) (DL) 5-2
(15) Enochs Eagles (Modesto) (MMC) 3-5 @ (2) Jesuit Marauders (Carmichael) 6-1

DIVISION II
(16) Wood Wildcats (Vacaville) (MEL) 4-3 @ (1) Grant Pacers (Sacramento) (DL) 4-3
(9) Tracy Bulldogs (TCAL) 5-2 @ (8) River Valley Falcons (Yuba City) (TCC) 5-3
(12) West Wolfpack (Tracy) (TCAL) @ (5) Vacaville Bulldogs (MEL) 6-1
(13) Vintage Crushers (Napa) 5-2 @ (4) St. Mary's Rams (Stockton) (TCAL) 6-1
(11) Elk Grove Thundering Herd (DL) 5-2 @ (6) Cosumnes Oaks Wolfpack (Elk Grove) (CVC) 5-2
(14) Burbank Titans (Sacramento (ML) 4-3 @ (3) Downey Knights (Modesto) (MMC) 7-1
(10) Del Campo Cougars (Fair Oaks) (CVC) 5-2 @ (7) Napa Indians (MEL) 5-2
(15) Davis Spartans (Modesto) (MMC) 5-2 @ (2) Rocklin Thunder (SFL) 7-0

DIVISION III
(16) Vanden Vikings (Fairfield) (SCAC) 4-3 @ (1) Sierra Timberwolves (Manteca) (VOL) 7-0
(9) Cordova Lancers (Rancho Cordova) (SVC) 6-1 @ (8) Vista del Lago Eagles (Folsom) (CAL) 5-3
(12) Manteca Buffaloes (VOL) 5-2 @ (5) Pacheco Panthers (Los Banos) (WAC) 6-2
(13) Patterson Tigers (WAC) 5-2 @ (4) Sacramento Dragons (ML) 6-1
(11) American Canyon Wolves (SCAC) 5-2 @ (6) Oakdale Mustangs (VOL) 6-1
(14) El Camino Eagles (Sacramento) (CAL) @ (3) Inderkum Tigers (Sacramento) (TCC) 7-1
(10) Christian Brothers Falcons (Sacramento) (CAL) 6-1 @ (7) Rio Linda Knights (TCC) 6-1
(15) Benicia Panthers (SCAC) 4-3 @ (2) El Dorado Cougars (Placerville) 7-0

DIVISION IV
(8) Liberty Ranch Hawks (Galt) (SVC) 4-3 @ (1) Sonora Wildcats (MLL) 7-1
(5) Livingston Wolves (WAC) 5-3 @ (4) Central Catholic Raiders (Modesto) (VOL) 5-2
(6) Natomas Nighthawks (Sacramento) (GEL) 5-2 @ (3) Placer Hillmen (Auburn) 5-2
(7) Dixon Rams (GEL) 4-4 @ (2) Los Banos Tigers (WAC) 5-2

DIVISION V
(8) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 4-3 @ (1) Bear River Bruins (Grass Valley) (PVL) 6-1
(5) Summerville Bears (Tuolumne City) (MLL) 5-3 @ (4) Escalon Cougars (TVL) 5-2
(6) Colfax Falcons (PVL) 5-2 @ (3) Le Grand Bulldogs (SL) 5-2
(7) Orestimba Warriors (Newman) (SL) 5-2 @ (2) Marysville Indians (GEL) 6-2

DIVISION VI
(8) Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) (SDL) 5-2 @ (1) Capital Chr. Cougars (Sacramento) (GEL) 7-0
(5) Rio Vista Rams (SDL) 6-1 @ (4) Mariposa Grizzlies (SL) 5-2
(6) Ripon Christian Knights (SL) 5-2 @ (3) Bradshaw Christian Pride (Sacramento) (SDL) 4-3
(7) Gustine Redskins (SL) 5-1 @ (2) Modesto Christian Crusaders (TVL) 6-1

Divisions I-VI Last 4 in:
Oak Ridge (Division I), Wood (Division II), Vanden (Division III), Lincoln-Stockton (Division I)
Divisions I-VI First 4 out:
Central Valley-Ceres (WAC), Lodi (TCAL), Ponderosa (CVC), Tokay (TCAL)

DIVISION VII
(5) Brookside Chr. Knights (Stockton) (CCAA) 4-3 @ (4) Woodland Chr. Cardinals (SMAL) 4-3
winner would play @ (1) Jim Elliot Christian (Lodi) (CCAA) 6-1
(6) Foresthill Wildfires (SMAL) 2-5 @ (3) Delta Saints (Clarksburg) (SMAL) 4-3
winner would play @ (2) Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage Rams (San Andreas) (CCAA) 5-2

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Week 4 Playoff Projections

I am writing this a week earlier than I intended, because me being behind in technology, I just learned that I can create spreadsheets online.  I wanted to practice using Google spreadsheets and see the difference between that and Microsoft.

There are a few differences between this year and last year.

1) The main group has 6 divisions. The secondary group has 1.  In addition, the secondary group is leaning towards going back to the old system.  The top 3 teams in each league goes.  There are no at-large berths in the secondary group.

2) The number of at-large teams in the main group increases from 24 to 28. 

3) The defending champions have to play in the division they won or higher, regardless of enrollment.  For example, Folsom could have a low-enough enrollment to play in division II, but since it won the Division I championship, it will be in division I this year. 

4) The section has more authority to move teams as it sees fit.  In my model, I will not worry about that.  I will stick to the math for the most part.  There will be two exceptions, 1) I will move teams to avoid two teams in the same league of playing each other in the 1st round (and it still can't be helped in division VII).  2) I will give undefeated teams a priority regardless of the tiebreaker. 

(Pitman is a weird case.  The Pride have fewer games than everyone else.  Pitman is 3-0.  I will not put them over 4 or 5 win teams, but I will put them over 3-1 and 3-2 teams).

In this model, the automatics will go to the best overall records for those leagues that have not played a league game, yet. Also, because only a few leagues just started, I will not enforce the two league win requirement this week.

Here is the model if the regular season ended today (209) teams in bold:

Division I (16 teams) Defending Champion: Folsom Bulldogs
(16) Franklin (Stockton) (SJAA) 1-3 @ (1) Folsom (SFL) 5-0
(9) Merced (CCC) 3-2 @ (8) Tracy (TCAL) 3-2
(12) Nevada Union (Grass Valley) (SFL) 3-2 @ (5) Tokay (Lodi) (SJAA) 4-1
(13) Gregori (Modesto) (MMC) 3-1 @ (4) Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills) (SFL) 4-1
(11) Lodi (TCAL) 3-1 @ (6) Woodcreek (Roseville) (SFL) 4-1
(14) Chavez (Stockton) (SJAA) 2-2 @ (3) Monterey Trail (Elk Grove) (DVL) 4-0
(10) Jesuit (Carmichael) (DVL) 3-1 @ (7) Pitman (Turlock) (CCC) 3-0
(15) Turlock (CCC) 2-3 @ (2) Modesto (MMC) 5-0

Division II (16 teams) Defending Champion: Del Oro Golden Eagles
(16) Burbank (Sacramento) (ML) 1-3 @ (1) West (Tracy) (TCAL) 4-0
(9) River Valley (Yuba City) (TCC) 3-2 @ (8) Del Campo (Fair Oaks) (CVC) 3-1
(12) Antelope (CVC) 3-1 @ (5) Vintage (Napa) (MEL) 4-1
(13) Buhach Colony (CCC) 3-1 @ (4) Rocklin (SFL) 4-0
(11) Wood (Vacaville) (MEL) 3-2 @ (6) Downey (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(14) St. Mary's (Stockton) (TCAL) 3-1 @ (3) Elk Grove (DVL) 4-0
(10) Vacaville (MEL) 3-1 @ (7) Davis (Modesto) (MMC) 4-1
(15) Del Oro (Loomis) (SFL) 2-3 @ (2) Grant (Sacramento) (DVL) 4-0

Division III (16 teams) Defending Champions: Manteca Buffaloes
(16) Casa Roble (Orangevale) (CAL) 2-3 @ (1) Cordova (Rancho Cordova) (SVC) 5-0
(9) Vanden (Fairfield) (SCAC) 3-1 @ (8) Sacramento (ML) 3-1
(12) El Camino (Sacramento) (CAL) 3-2 @ (5) Inderkum (Sacramento) (TCC) 4-1
(13) Manteca (VOL) 3-1 @ (4) El Dorado (Placerville) (SVC) 4-0
(11) American Canyon (SCAC) 3-2 @ (6) Christian Brothers (Sacramento) (CAL) 4-1
(14) Patterson (WAC) 3-1 @ (3) Sierra (Manteca) (VOL) 4-0
(10) Pacheco (Los Banos (WAC) 3-2 @ (7) Rio Linda (TCC) 4-1
(15) Placer (Auburn) (PVL) 3-2 @ (2) Oakdale (VOL) 4-0

Division IV (8 teams) Defending Champions: Central Catholic Raiders (Modesto)
(8) Notomas (Sacramento) (GEL) 3-1 @ (1) Sonora (MLL) 4-1
(5) Central Catholic (Modesto) (VOL) 3-1 @ (4) Center (Antelope) (PVL) 3-1
(6) Galt (SVC) 3-2 @ (3) Los Banos (WAC) 3-2
(7) Union Mine (El Dorado) (SVC) 3-1 @ (2) Livingston (WAC) 4-1

Division V (8 teams) Defending Champions: Le Grand Bulldogs
(8) Orestimba (Newman) (SL) 3-1 @ (1) Hughson (TVL) 4-1
(5) Delhi (SL) 3-1 @ (4) Colfax (PVL) 3-1
(6) Summerville (Tuolumne City) (MLL) 3-2 @ (3) Bear River (Grass Valley) 3-1
(7) Escalon (TVL) 3-2 @ (2) Marysville (GEL) 4-1

Division VI (8 teams) Defending Champions: Brookside Christian Knights (Stockton)
(8) Hilmar (TVL) 2-3 @ (1) Capital Christian (Sacramento) (GEL) 5-0
(5) Modesto Christian (TVL) 3-1 @ (4) Golden Sierra (Garden Valley) (SDL) 4-1
(6) Vacaville Christian (SDL) 3-1 @ (3) Ripon Christian (SL) 4-0
(7) Amador (Sutter Creek) (MLL) 2-3 @ (2) Rio Vista (SDL) 4-0

Last 4 in: Gregori (Div. I), Hilmar (Div. VI), Turlock (Div. I), Casa Roble (Div. III)
First 4 out: Granite Bay (SFL), Benicia (SCAC), Napa (MEL), Vista del Lago (Folsom) (CAL)

Division VII (6 teams) Defending Champions: There was no division VII last year
(5) Woodland Christian (SMAL) 1-3 @ (4) Delta (Clarksburg) (SMAL) 1-3
winner would play (1) Stone Ridge Christian (Merced) (CCAA) 3-1
(6) Valley Christian (Roseville) (SMAL) 1-3 @ (3) Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage (San Andreas) (CCAA) 3-1
winner would play (2) Jim Elliot Christian (Lodi) (CCAA) 3-1

Friday, September 19, 2014

2015 AAA minor league teams and the new parent clubs

Minor league teams are basically training grounds for players who are trying to enter the major leagues.  The contracts of the players are technically part of the major league team.  Minor league teams have contracts to be part of the major league team organization.  What most people do not know is that these contracts are good for two or four years.  However, the contracts are renewed so often that people rarely notice the contract renewals.  Occasionally, a major league or a minor league team will decide not to renew.  Even more rarely is that several teams will cut ties with the minor league team  and look for orgaizational partnerships elsewhere.  It really becomes a "musical-chairs" type event.  It will happen in the Pacific Coast League of the AAA level.  (Note: The Pacific Coast League covers the teams west of the Mississippi River, though a few teams east of it are also in the PCL).  The International League (or East Coast) will remain unchanged.

Pacific Coast League Changes

AAA Team                                                       2015 Parent Club             2014 Parent Club
Sacramento River Cats                                    San Francisco Giants        Oakland A's
Fresno Grizzlies                                               Houston Astros                 San Francisco Giants
Albuquerque Isotopes                                      Colorado Rockies             Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Springs Sky Sox                               Milwaukee Brewers         Colorado Rockies
Nashville Sounds                                             Oakland A's                      Milwaukee Brewers
Oklahoma City Redhawks                               Los Angeles Dodgers       Houston Astros

Note: Because minor league teams rarely have the mascot of the parent club anymore, these teams will not have to change their mascots.

Pacific Coast League Unchanged for 2015

AAA Team                                                                  Parent Club
El Paso Chihuahuas                                                    San Diego Padres
Iowa Cubs                                                                   Chicago Cubs
Las Vegas 51s                                                             New York Mets
Omaha Storm Chasers                                                 Kansas City Royals
Reno Aces                                                                   Arizona Diamondbacks
Round Rock Express                                                   Texas Rangers
Salt Lake Bees                                                             Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Tacoma Rainers                                                           Seattle Mariners

International League

AAA Team                                                                    Parent Club
Buffalo Bisons                                                               Toronto Blue Jays
Charlotte Knights                                                           Chicago White Sox
Columbus Clippers                                                        Cleveland Indians
Durham Bulls                                                                 Tampa Bay Rays
Gwinnett Braves                                                            Atlanta Braves
Indianapolis Indians                                                       Pittsburgh Pirates
Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs                                                 Philadelphia Phillies
Louisville Bats                                                               Cincinnati Reds
Norfolk Tides                                                                 Baltimore Orioles
Pawtucket Red Sox                                                        Boston Red Sox
Rochester Red Wings                                                     Minnesota Twins
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders                                New York Yankees
Syracuse Chiefs                                                              Washington Nationals
Toledo Mud Hens                                                           Detroit Tigers

Sources: Wikipedia, Sacramento River Cats facebook page, Oakland A's Facebook page

New Orleans Zephyrs                                                 Miami Marlins
Memphis Redbirds                                                      St. Louis Cardinals

Thursday, September 4, 2014

209 Sports- Playoff Predictions

This year, I am writing this blog for two reasons.  First, I want to see what the high school football playoffs would look like if calpreps.com is correct in predicting on how teams will finish.  Second, the Section made some changes to how the playoffs will work this year, and I want to show the playoff process step-by-step.

Format process and who qualifies 

1) Like last year, there are two division groups, but the groups are changed.  This year, the main group is divisions I-VI (last year, it was divisions I-IV).  The other group is division VII (last year, it was divisions V and VI).

2) The main group will be every league except for CCAA and SMAL. 

3) Like last year, every league will have the top two teams as automatic qualifiers, except for the Delta League and Sierra Foothill League.  Those leagues are so strong that they each get a third automatic qualifier.

4) There are 28 at-large bids among the 25 leagues, and they are chosen based solely on wins; however, a team must win at least two league games to be eligible (there are a few schools who are predicted to have enough overall wins, but not enough league wins to qualify). In my model I had to skip a few steps for various reasons, so I admit it would not be 100% accurate. If there is a tie for the last teams here are the tiebreakers in order.
     A. Head-to-head (In my model, calpreps just gave the predicted record, not who would beat who,
          so it is nearly impossible to determine that.  Plus, teams in questions rarely play each other).
     B. The amount of all opponents wins. (I did not have enough time to calculate that, so I skipped
          that one.  There might be a team or two who would get in that did not in my model.)
     C. The amount of the defeated teams wins.  In other words, only the wins of the teams that the
          potential playoff teams would beat are used.  (That one had the combinations of problems of A
          and B).
     D. If all else fails, calpreps rankings would be the final factor.  (The last 3 teams had the same
          record and same ranking.  I used the opponents wins from those 3.  Amador (Sutter Creek) got
          in over Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) and Kimball (Tracy).

5) For division VII, the top 3 teams in each league qualify

Placing the teams in divisions I-VI

1) For the most part, the largest 16 schools by enrollment are in division I, next 16 largest are in division II, next 16 largest are in division III, next 8 largest are in division IV, next 8 are in division V, and the smallest 8 are in division VI, but there are two execptions.

       A. A team is not allowed to drop more than one division than what it plays in during league
            play.  For example, St. Mary's has an enrollment of 968.  That is small enough to play in
            division V.  However, the Rams play in the TCAL, which is a division I league.  Therefore,
            by rule, the lowest they can play is division II.
       B. A team that won a section championship last year must compete at that division or higher. 
            Le Grand has a low enough enrollment to compete at Division VI, but since the Bulldogs
            won the Division V championship last year, they must compete at the Division V level this
            year.  The rule will drop Amador to Division VI.

Seeding
Please go to the link for the seeding.  In my model, I will only use the number of wins, but will move teams for two reasons: 1) In order to prevent teams from the same league to play each other in the 1st round. 2) League winners get top priority, even though they are not guaranteed a home game.

If calpreps.com is correct, here is what the playoffs would look like: 209 schools are in bold
*=automatic qualifiers

Division I
(16) Edison Vikings (Stockton) SJAA 5-5* @ (1) Folsom Bulldogs SFL 10-0*
(9) Granite Bay Grizzlies SFL 6-4 @ (8) Pleasant Grove Eagles (Elk Grove) DL 7-3
(12) Lincoln Trojans (Stockton) TCAL 6-4 @ (5) Merced Bears CCC 7-3*
(13) Tokay Tigers (Lodi) TCAL 6-4 @ (4) Oak Ridge Trojans (El Dorado Hills) SFL 8-2*
(11) Turlock Bulldogs CCC 6-4 @ (6) Jesuit Marauders (Carmichael) DL 7-3*
(14) Napa Indians MEL 5-5* @ (3) Stagg Delta Kings (Stockton) SJAA 8-2*
(10) Franklin Wildcats (Elk Grove) DL 6-4 @ (7) Modesto Panthers MMC 7-3*
(15) Vintage Crushers (Napa) MEL 6-4 @ (2) Grant Pacers (Sacramento) DL 9-1*

Division II
(16) Beyer Patriots (Modesto) MMC 5-5 @ (1) Vacaville Bulldogs MEL 8-2*
(9) Burbank Titans (Sacramento) ML 6-4* @ (8) Del Oro Golden Eagles (Loomis) SFL 6-4*
(12) Ponderosa Bruins (Shingle Springs) CVC 6-4 @ (5) Rio Linda Knights TCC 8-2
(13) Gregori Jaguars (Modesto) MMC 6-4 @ (4) Elk Grove Thundering Herd DL 8-2*
(11) Wood Wildcats (Vacaville) MEL 6-4 @ (6) St. Mary's Rams (Stockton) TCAL 7-3
(14) Atwater Falcons CCC 5-5* @ (3) Downey Knights (Modesto) MMC 8-2*
(10) Rocklin Thunder SFL 6-4 @ (7) Tracy Bulldogs TCAL 7-3*
(15) Buhach Colony Thunder (Atwater) CCC 5-5 @ (2) Roseville Tigers CVC 8-2*

Division III
(16) Cosumnes Oaks Wolfpack (Elk Grove) CVC 5-5* @ (1) Yuba City Honkers TCC 9-1*
(9) Casa Roble Rams (Orangevale) CAL 7-3* @ (8) Pacheco Panthers (Los Banos) WAC 8-2*
(12) Benicia Panthers SCAC 6-4 @ (5) Patterson Tigers WAC 8-2*
(13) Central Valley Hawks (Ceres) WAC 7-3 @ (4) Manteca Buffaloes VOL 9-1*
(11) Oakdale Mustangs VOL 7-3 @ (6) Rosemont Wolverines (Sacramento) SVC 8-2*
(14) Antelope Titans CVC 6-4 @ (3) Vanden Vikings (Fairfield) SCAC 9-1*
(10) American Canyon Wolves SCAC 7-3* @ (7) Inderkum Tigers (Sacramento) TCC 8-2*
(15) River Valley Falcons (Yuba City) TCC 5-5 @ (2) Sacramento Dragons ML 9-1*

Division IV
(8) Dixon Rams GEL 6-4* @ (1) Central Catholic (Modesto) VOL 10-0*
(5) El Dorado Cougars (Placerville) SVC 8-2* @ (4) Chr. Bros. Falcons (Sacramento) (CAL) 8-2*
(6) Los Banos Tigers WAC 7-3 @ (3) Center Cougars (Antelope) PVL 8-2*
(7) Sierra Timberwolves (Manteca) VOL 6-4 @ (2) Placer Hillmen (Auburn) PVL 9-1*

Division V
(8) Marysville Indians GEL 7-3 @ (1) Hilmar Yellowjackets TVL 10-0*
(5) Calaveras Redskins (San Andreas) MLL 7-3* @ (4) Ripon Indians TVL 7-3*
(6) Colfax Falcons PVL 7-3 @ (3) Sonora Wildcats MLL 7-3*
(7) Escalon Cougars TVL 6-4 @ (2) Le Grand Bulldogs SL 10-0*

Division VI
(8) Golden Sierra Grizzlies (Garden Valley) SDL 6-4 @ (1) Capital Chr. Cougars (Sac.) GEL 10-0*
(5) Mariposa Grizzlies SL 8-2 @ (4) Rio Vista Rams SDL 8-2*
(6) Amador Buffaloes (Sutter Creek) MLL 5-5 @ (3) Bradshaw Chr. Pride (Sac.) SDL 8-2*
(7) Vacaville Christian Falcons SDL 7-3 @ (2) Ripon Christian Knights SL 9-1*

Note: Vallejo (6-4), Hughson (6-4), and Woodcreek (Roseville) (5-5) would be declared ineligible, because they are predicted to finish second to last in league, and therefore, we'd have to assume they would not get the 2 league wins.  If they do get at least 2 league wins, then they are eligible for playoffs.

Last 4 teams in the playoffs: Buhach Colony, River Valley, Beyer, Amador
1st 4 eligible teams out: Laguna Creek (Elk Grove) (ML), Kimball (Tracy) (VOL), Summerville (Tuolumne City) (MLL), Argonaut (Jackson) (MLL)

Division VII (all teams in this division are automatic)
(1) Woodland Christian Cardianls SMAL 9-1 would have a bye
(5) Foresthill Wildfires SMAL 6-4 @ (4) Millennium Falcons (Tracy) CCAA 6-4
(6) Cristo Rey Saints (Sacramento) SMAL 2-7 @ (3) Stone Ridge Chr. Knights (Merced) CCAA 6-4
(2) Brookside Christian Knights (Stockton) CCAA 8-2 would have a bye

Central Section Playoffs
There is one 209 team in the Central Section.  The playoff policy of the Central Section is that if you want to be in the playoffs, you're in.   The only time the section goes back on that word is if more than 16 teams in the division want to play, then they take the top-16 of those who sign in.  Usually only the top 8-12 choose to play.  I do not know why a team would not want to play in the playoffs, but they have their reasons.  For this model, we are only doing division 5, because it is the only one with a 209 team in it.  We will also assume that every team would want to be in the playoffs.  There are 18 teams in division 5 Central Section, so only the top-16 would make it.  I believe the seedings are determined by rankings.

Central Section Division V playoffs

(16) Bishop Broncos (HDL) (4-6) @ (1) Mendota Aztecs (West Sierra) (9-1)
(9) Immanuel Eagles (Reedley) (IND) (6-4) @ (8) Firebaugh Eagles (West Sierra) (6-4)
(12) Yosemite Badgers (Oakhurst) (2-8) (NSL) @ (5) Farmersville Aztecs (East Sierra) (9-1)
(13) Dos Palos Broncos (West Sierra) (2-9) @ (4) Shafter Generals (SSL) (7-3)
(11) Corcoran Panthers (East Sequoia) (4-6) @ (6) Sierra Chieftains (Tollhouse) (NSL) (5-5)
(14) Fowler Redcats (West Sequoia) (3-7) @ (3) Lindsay Cardinals (East Sequoia) (8-2)
(10) Woodlake Tigers (East Sequoia) (6-4) @ (7) Caruthers Blue Raiders (West Sequoia) (8-2)
(15) Parlier Panthers (West Sequoia) (5-5) @ (2) Kern Valley Broncs (Lake Isabella) (HDL) (9-1)

Friday, August 22, 2014

209 Sports-The Road Not Traveled

After many realignment meetings, the remodeled leagues will make their debut in high school sports in August.   For the 209 leagues, here is what the leagues now look like:

CCC: Atwater, Buhach Colony, Merced, Golden Valley, Pitman, Turlock (no changes, El Capitan will join in 2016.)

MMC: Beyer, Davis, Downey, Enochs, Gregori, Johansen, Modesto (no changes, except in boys/girls basketball.  Modesto Christian will join the conference for those sports).

SJAA: Bear Creek, Chavez, Edison, Franklin, McNair, Stagg (Lincoln, Lodi, and Tracy leave;  Edison, McNair and Stagg join)

TCAL: Lincoln, Lodi, St. Mary's, Tokay, Tracy, West (Edison, McNair, and Stagg leave; Lincoln, Lodi, and Tracy join).

VOL: Central Catholic, East Union, Kimball, Lathrop, Manteca, Oakdale, Sierra, Weston Ranch (Sonora leaves, Central Catholic joins).

WAC: Central Valley, Ceres, El Capitan, Livingston, Los Banos, Patterson, Pacheco (Central Catholic leaves, El Capitan joins until 2016).

MLL: Amador, Argonaut, Bret Harte, Calaveras, Linden, Sonora, Summerville (Sonora joins)

TVL: Escalon, Hilmar, Hughson, Modesto Christian (except for boys/girls basketball), Mountain House, Ripon, Riverbank (Orestimba leaves for all sports, Modesto Christian leaves for boys/girls basketball.  Mountain House joins for all sports, Ripon Christian joins for boys/girls basketball).

SL: Delhi, Denair, Gustine, Le Grand, Mariposa, Orestimba, Ripon Christian (except for boys/girls basketball), Waterford (Turlock Christian leaves for all sports, Ripon Christian leaves for boys/girls basketball; Orestimba joins for all sports).

CCAA: Big Valley, Brookside Christian, Excel Academy, Jim Elliot Christian, Millennium, Sierra Ridge/Rite of Passage, Stone Ridge Christian, Turlock Christian (Excel Academy and Turlock Christian join).

MVL: Delta Charter, Don Pedro, Holt Academy, Hughes Academy, Lodi Academy, Mountain Oaks, Stockton Christian, Tioga

Sometimes it is fun to think about the "road not traveled".  In this case, I am talking about the changes that were either officially proposed or rumored that never took place for one reason or another.  I will discuss five of them in depth, and look at what we might be missing since these changes did not go through.  Sometimes there are more cons than pros with a move, but we'll take a look at them, anyway.

1) Oakdale to the MMC

Introduction: When the Sac-Joaquin Section committee first came up with their formal proposals, they had Oakdale going to the MMC.  The committee had a slightly different MMC than we see now.  They wanted to drop the MMC from a division I league to a division II league.  The teams would have been: Atwater, Beyer, Buhach Colony, Davis, Downey, El Capitan (Merced), Johansen, and Oakdale.  From what I read from blackhatfootball.com, Modesto City Schools asked to keep the MMC in tact, and have all the Modesto public schools in one league.  The district got its wish.

What Oakdale is missing from not going to the MMC: 1) A chance to make the playoffs in basketball.  With the addition of schools in Modesto, the talent level for many sports has dropped in town.  Oakdale is not a great basketball team, and hasn't been in a decade (and has only been a playoff team two out of the past 15 years).  Despite that, Oakdale could have been a contender for the 3rd playoff spot for the MMC. Davis won the MMC two years ago, and that year, Oakdale beat the Spartans in the Oakdale tournament that year.  2) A wrestling rivalry of the area.  With Central Catholic coming to the VOL, this is not a big loss, but think about what they could have had with Modesto.  Modesto has become a wrestling power, and a dual meet between Oakdale and Modesto could have brought general fans in the area to witness the clash (Note: In this thought, I am referring to what might have been if the MMC stayed in tact, and just added Oakdale).  3) Preparation for a high-flying offense for the playoffs in football.  As far as passing numbers went, Sierra had the highest offense in the VOL, and Downey had nearly twice the passing numbers Sierra did.  Oakdale could have used that preparation in a playoff game against Sacramento.  The Dragons just outran the Mustangs in a mistake-heavy playoff game last year.  4) A chance to save money. Oakdale's closest rival in the VOL (before the addition of Central Catholic) is Manteca.  If the section got exactly what it wanted, then only two rivals would have been further than that (Atwater and Buhach Colony).  If the MMC stayed in tact, and just added Oakdale, then all the league opponents would be closer than Manteca, and most of them are closer than Central Catholic.  Oakdale High could have saved money in travel not just in football, but in all sports.  I do not know how much the Mustangs spend in transportation, but that figure could have been cut in half.

What the MMC is missing from not adding Oakdale: 1) Money. The other teams in the VOL wanted to keep Oakdale, because Mustang fans travel well.   They have been reported to say that Oakdale brings a lot of funds in gate receipts.  I was at the game against Sacramento.  There were at least 1,000 Oakdale fans, and probably more than that...for a high school game.  Oakdale fans were lining up along the track, becuase Sacramento High does not have a lot of seats for the visitors.  Oakdale fans outnumbered Serra (Gardena) fans in the state championship two years ago.  Keep in mind, Oakdale had to travel over 300 miles for the game, while Serra's campus is located 5 miles away.  At least four Modesto schools could have increased their funds by adding Oakdale to the mix.  2) Preparation for the run in football.  Modesto schools rarely fare well in the playoffs.  One reason for that is there is not one team in the MMC that can run the ball effectively.  Oakdale could have provided that practice for the MMC teams, and if the section got its way, Buhach Colony could have done that, too.  Oakdale has one of the best running games in the area, and it should continue this coming year.  3) Avoiding Modesto Christian in the league for basketball.  The MMC was not thrilled that Modesto Christian was added for basketball.  I am assuming there is a fear that the Crusaders will dominate everyone in the league, and that fear is probably justified (though Gregori will probably give them a good couple of games).  It is time for Modesto Christian to move up for basketball from the TVL, and if Oakdale was added, there would be a good chance it would not have been to the MMC.  Since there are more schools, the section has, for the most part, stopped the practice of having 10 teams in one league like the old CCC and SJAA.  There would not have been enough room for Modesto Christian.  The Crusaders probably would have gone to the WAC (Division IV), VOL (Division III), or CCC (Division I).  We all missed out with potenial MC games against either Sierra, Weston Ranch, and Central Catholic (VOL) or Pitman, Buhach Colony, and Golden Valley (CCC).

What wouldn't work for Oakdale in the MMC: There are a couple of things.  First, Oakdale would be forced to move up at least a division, as it stands now.  If the MMC was a division II league like the section first hoped, then the Mustangs would be able to compete in the Division III football playoffs, and all the other sports that playoffs are determined by enrollment.  However, as a division I league, the lowest division Oakdale could be in is Division II.  As great as I think Oakdale is at football and baseball, I am not sure Oakdale could win a title with Grant and Del Oro in the same division. Second, the Oakdale administration saw this move as punishment for being good.  I saw it differently.  When my classmates and I were in high school, the Modesto schools were getting a lot of attention, especially Davis, which was a dominant program at the time.  My classmates and I thought we were better than all the Modesto schools, and we wanted a chance to prove it.  I think we would have loved to compete in the CCC (which was the league the Modesto schools were in at the time).

That wouldn't work for the MMC in adding Oakdale: Travel costs.  From what I read in the Modesto Bee, Modesto City Schools (MCS) does not bus their athletes to league games, becuase they are all in Modesto.  That practice would have to change as schools would have to bus to Oakdale.  MCS did not seem ready for that financial responsibility.

My viewpoint: I was probably the only one out of the Oakdale players, coaches, alumni, and fans that was hoping for a change in scenery.  Since Sonora left the VOL, I saw no point in Oakdale remaining, and was looking forward to new challenges.  I would like to see Oakdale vs. Downey (and/or Buhach Colony and Atwater) in football, Oakdale vs. Modesto in wrestling, Oakdale vs. Beyer in soccer, Oakdale vs. Enochs in baseball, and Oakdale once again winning the MMC in water polo (Oakdale was in the MMC before the VOL sponsored water polo).  The leagues will change again in 4 years.  We will see what happens next.

I will not be as detailed with the other proposals, but let's look at four more.

2) Sonora to the TVL for football only

Introduction: This was a last-attempt proposal by the rest of the teams in the Mother Lode League (MLL) who do not Sonora to join.  They fear that Sonora will dominate in all the sports and that they're too big because of their experience in the VOL.  The MLL was hoping that the section officials would compromise and just put the Wildcats in the Trans Valley League (TVL) for football only.  The way realignment works in the Sac-Joaquin Section is that teams and leagues can make suggestions for where schools go.  The section does not have to take the suggestions or compromise, and they didn't in this case.

What we fans are missing from this not happening:
A rivalry between Sonora and Escalon.  As fans, we are missing a few classic match-ups with the move not happening.  I can see Sonora-Escalon becoming a big rivalry, and that is a game I would go see.  Escalon runs nearly the same offense as Oakdale, therefore, not much would change from Sonora's perspective, except the jerseys of the opposition would be purple instead of red.  Sonora-Ripon and Sonora-Hilmar would also produce some good games.  Luckily, Sonora was able to schedule Ripon and Hilmar in non-league play (also included in Sonora's non-league are Oakdale and Lodi). 

My viewpoint:
Overall, it was a bad idea, and I am glad it got turned down.  What was also considered was Summerville moving to the SL.  The section decided that the trip from Tuolumne City to Gustine was too much (and it is), but the MLL had no problem sending Sonora to Mountain House, which covers about the same distance.  If that was going to happen, Sonora may as well have stayed in the VOL.  Besides, if Sonora was going to move to another league for one sport only, it should have been volleyball.  I do feel bad for the rest of the MLL in volleyball.  Last year, Sonora dominated a much-bigger VOL in that sport, and was one of the best in the section.  They should dominate in volleyball, too.  As I was writing this, I thought of something.  Sonora will be in another league for one sport only.  The MLL does not have water polo.  I do not know for sure where the Wildcats water polo team will go, but I think they will stay in the VOL for that.

3. Patterson to the VOL

Introduction: This was also included in the original proposal set up by the Sac-Joaquin Section.  Out of all the proposals, this would rank as one of the moves I was most certain would stick, but alas, it didn't.  At the end of the first of four realignment meetings, the new VOL had Central Valley, East Union, Kimball, Manteca, Patterson, and Sierra.  By the time all the coaches and athletic directors had the opportunity to make their pitches, there was no room for Patterson, especially since the Section was hell-bent on putting Central Catholic in the VOL.

What fans are missing from this move not happening
Like Oakdale going to the MMC, I have to answer this in two perspectives, 1) What we are missing if everything else from the VOL looked the same, except that Patterson would have been added and not Central Catholic. 2) What we are missing from the Section's first proposal.

1) Fans are missing an annual Oakdale-Patterson game.  I personally saw this playoff game last year, and it was a great game.  Oakdale won 21-17, though it looked like the Mustangs were going to dominate.  On the other hand, there was a point in the beginning of the game where it looked like Patterson was going to run away with the game.  Patterson was playing dominate defense until the Mustang coaches made adjustments.  According to blackhatfootball.com, Patterson has been trying to schedule Oakdale for non-league games.  Patterson in the VOL could have forced that game. 

2) Patterson playing schools its own size. This is something that we are missing no matter which proposal the section accepted.  The city of Patterson is one of the few that grew substantially as the folks from the Bay Area moved to the Central Valley.  The city jumped from a population of around 10,000 to a little less than 25,000 in ten years (and is now the 4th biggest city in Stanislaus County behind Modesto, Turlock, and Ceres).  During that time, the enrollment has doubled (I think literally).  It went from having the enrollment of a TVL school to being the third largest division III/IV school in the 209 (behind Kimball and Central Valley).  However, the Tigers are playing schools with 500 or more fewer students.  Going to the VOL would have meant that they would play more schools with an enrollment in the 1,300-1,700 range.

My viewpoint:
I will keep this short.  Patterson to the VOL needs to happen.  It should have happened already.  I predict that it will happen in the next realignment period, unless the city of Patterson gets a second high school.  The city and the Patterson School District once talked about having two high schools of around 800 students each.  In that case, then they both would move to the TVL.  The point is that the days of Patterson in the WAC are probably numbered.

4. Kimball to TCAL

Introduction
One of my friends asked me how I would realign the schools in this area if I had the choice, and I put Kimball with the other two Tracy schools.  However, it was also briefly discussed in the realignment meetings.  The consensus was, from what I read, the Section wanted to see what the addition of Mountain House High School would do to the enrollment numbers of Kimball High School.

What fans are missing from this not happening
Actually, fans are not missing too much from this football wise, the reason I say that is because Kimball was able to schedule Tracy and West in non-league play.  However, the fans in Tracy are missing having something on the line besides Pride.  Imagine if Tracy and Kimball could play for a league title.  That would be great for the city of Tracy.  Too bad Tracy, West, Kimball, and Millennium couldn't have a small tournament for the "Best in Tracy" title.  (As an aside, there were a couple years that I was convinced that 400-student Millennium Charter School would have won it.)  I believe Kimball was not able to schedule Tracy and West in all sports, and fans are missing that.  Also, they are missing one more non-league game for the Jaguars to showcase their talent.  They have had one big upset in each of the past two years.  They upset Oakdale (ok, they beat them down) last year, and upset Sonora the year before that.  The Jaguars seem to be one step away from the playoffs every year, and if they could have gone to what would have been a 7-team TCAL, they could have schedueled a team for non-league that was winnable, yet have enough wins overall to inch them in the playoffs.  Fans of tennis are missing the opportunity to see them play against the best in the sport.  Kimball has a good tennis team for the VOL, but how does it compare to the rest in the Sac-Joaquin Section?  We will not know that for at least a few years.

My viewpoint
I agree with the Section board that we should wait to see how the opening of Mountain House High School effects the enrollment numbers at Kimball High before the Jaguars are moved.  It is still too bad that the three Tracy public high schools could not be in the same league.  I am sure the move will be talked about again in the next realignment session.  I think Tracy is too small of a city for all its schools to be in different leagues for much longer. 

5. A private-school only league

Introduction
My friend told me that he thinks the private schools, particularly the ones that focus on sports, should be in their own league separate from all the public schools.  He says it is unfair that the private schools have a much broader base to get students from, and they can provide scholarships for athletes.  There are leagues in the Bay Area and Southern California that are private-school only leagues, and the Sac-Joaquin Section should have one, too. 

What fans are missing from this not happening
Fans in general are missing some potentially great match-ups.  In football, St. Mary's and Central Catholic play a non-league game every year, but it would be even better if there was a league title on the line.  In basketball, St. Mary's and Modesto Christian can provide fans with an hour and a half of entertainment, and Ripon Christian and Central Catholic could do the same thing.  If you expand the league to the 916 area, becuase they might have to due to the fact there are so few schools that focus on sports, Capital Christian and Sacramento High could make it an interesting league.  Fans in schools like Livingston, Riverbank, Edison-Stockton, Franklin-Stockton, Waterford, and others are missing the peace of mind of no longer having to be on the short end of this potentailly unfair advantage.  They can stick to playing public schools their size.

My viewpoint
There is already a league in the 209 and one in the Sacremento area of private schools that do not put too much emphasis on sports.  They are the Central California Athletic Association and the Sacramento Metro Athletic League.  Secondly, there are a few questions that must be answered before a league like this could happen.  First, how would one define "private school"?  Because of charter schools, that is not easily defined.  Charter schools are public schools, but their enrollment base is officially the city it is in and every city in any of the surrounding counties the charter school is in, so it has an enrollment-base similar to private schools.  In my definition, I would put the charter schools as private schools.  Second question, do we make two four-team leagues, or do we make one eight-team league of north and south schools?  There are only eight private schools in the entire Sac-Joaquin Section that put any emphasis on sports (one could argue Brookside Christian as being the 9th).  Or do we have two divisions of the league.  The south would be Central Catholic, Modesto Christian, Ripon Chirstian, and St. Mary's-Stockton, and maybe Brookside Christian.  The north would be Capital Christian-Sacramento, Christian Brothers-Sacramento, Jesuit-Carmichael, and Sacramento (it is a charter school).  I think it is logistically difficult to put all the private schools in one league, but it could be done.

Others I thought were interesting that didn't make the cut:
Davis to WAC
Summerville to SL
Oakdale, Lincoln, and Merced in same league
Central Catholic to VOL for football only
Central Catholic to MMC
Modesto to CCC
Buhach Colony and Atwater to MMC
The VOL consisting of only Manteca Unified and Tracy High Schools

Sources: Auburn Journal
               www.blackhatfootball.com
               blackhatfootball on twitter
               calpreps.com
               Merced Sun Star
               Modesto Bee
               Stockton Record
These are all great sources, and I encourage you to visit them all.